** Trade Advice: Hornqvist/Allen vs Palat/Price

[goose61]

Hey all,

League in sig, got offered Palat and Price for Hornqvist and Jake Allen this morning. The Price upgrade is huge but goalies aren't the biggest point producers in our league. Also the guy battling me for top spot has Crosby, so having Hornq allows me to match a lot of his points making him pretty valuable in my eyes. I know Palat is with Stammer but I see Hornq putting up better numbers.

Whats everyone think?

[Laendarian]

Looking at your roster Price seems like he fills a big need for you, and you are definitely selling high and buying low here. unless the goalie value is really skewed in that you don't really need a half decent one I think that's a good deal.

[Moses]

You can't win your pool with out goaltending. I like the Price side.

[The Good Sir]

Price is at minimum a Top 10 goalie, more than likely a Top 5. Don't be scared off by his slow start. You are selling high on Hornqvist and buying (very) low on Price. He fills a huge hole in your lineup and, like Laendarian points out, unless goalies really aren't that valuable in your league you win this trade. I'd take it.

[sharpp87]

Price and Palat for sure.

Hornqvist is not a superstar who will put 80-85 pts

even if Hornqvist has 68 pts.... and Palat has 55 pts... There a bigger gap between Price and Allen than between Hornq and Palat..

i'd take Palat + Price for sure.

You 5 keepers will now be Price, Tavares, Getzlaf and 2 out of Perry, Backstrom, Yandle and Hedman.

[Pengwin7]

I'll disagree with others.

In "points" pools, goalies are just another slot on your overall roster that contributes to overall team scoring.

If Hornqvist represents a +100 value over a waiver wire and Allen is a +30 value
that might be better than
Palat if he's a +40 value over waiver wire and Price if he's a +80.
I don't know how the math shakes out.

Hornqvist was the #1 overall skater in Yahoo!'s multi-cat ranker just yesterday.

But this is NOT "category" play where goalie value can be critical.
We all get used to the common "category" play where having one or two goalies as your sole players contributing to 3-4 categories (W, GAA, SV%, SO etch) create huge value associated with them.

Your line-up suggests about 7 skaters and 1 goalie.
And Hiller (CGY) is probably going to put up decent stats.
Adding Price (MON) actually could decrease Hiller's value as you may end up benching him often.

If you have 6 top level skaters and 1 average goalie...
IMO...
That's better than 5 top level skaters and 1 super goalie.
6.5 > 6.


One other item:
Is this a full year total points standings?
Or H2H league?

[goose61]

First, thank you all who have replied so far.

I too initially saw Price and thought steal but after thinking it over I'm leaning towards Pengwin's train of thought. Goalie's in this pool are simply another slot to put up points. Last year the top goalie was Ben Bishop with 108.8 points which puts him 18th overall in points, between Simmonds and Thornton, to give some sort of reference to the value of goalies.

EDIT: Also, only one goalie is played per week meaning Allen is essentially riding bench unless Elliott goes down or loses his starting role. So comparing Price's point production over Allen's is fairly irrelevant as the comparison should be between Price and Hiller

[Mr. Guru]

Hornqvist=70 points? + 5 PIM points + 3/4 SO goals = 2 + maybe one hat trick = 2?
Total 80ish

Allen lets say 14 wins, 2SO
Total 40ish

Price 37 wins, 6SO
Total 100ish

Palat 60 points? +5PIM points....
Total 70ish


To me this deal is a no brainer. Price/Palat side is a huge winner.

[Pengwin7]

Hornqvist=70 points? + 5 PIM points + 3/4 SO goals = 2 + maybe one hat trick = 2?
Total 80ish

Allen lets say 14 wins, 2SO
Total 40ish

Price 37 wins, 6SO
Total 100ish

Palat 60 points? +5PIM points....
Total 70ish

To me this deal is a no brainer. Price/Palat side is a huge winner.

Comparison is not correct.
There are also PPG, PPA, GWG to consider... where Hornqvist will be an absolute beast and Palat will not.

As for the goalies, this isn't a Price vs. Allen comparison, it's Price vs. Hiller (because he can only start one goalie).

Anytime Price goes... and he's forced to bench Hiller... he loses points.
With skaters, there's a lot more flexibility in starting.

In a 1G roster allocation, there is no goalie flexibility - if both guys are starting one night, you are benching value.

[goose61]

Comparison is not correct.
There are also PPG, PPA, GWG to consider... where Hornqvist will be an absolute beast and Palat will not

Exactly... For compaison:

2013:

Carey Price 59GP 34W 6SO 95.3 Fantasy PTS
James Neal 59GP 61PTS 104.0 Fantasy PTS

I think 61 points for Hornq is attainable and being on the Pens' power play Neal is a good comparable. So I'm having trouble seeing how this is a clear cut Price/Palat decision.

[Mr. Guru]

Ahh I read it wrong and/or misunderstood. I thought 1 point was 1 fantasy point.

Price should still put up close to 100 whereas Hiller should get around 75.

Comes down to what you believe the difference between Palat/Hornqvist is. More or less than 25?

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Right now Hiller is splitting starts with Ramo, and as long as Ramo continues to play well that won't change. They're both good goalies, neither is a clear #1 choice over the other. So if Hiller plays 45 games this year, and wins 18 of them....well now he's not looking so great in this league. 18 wins with 4 shutouts....48 points. Add 7 OTL and it brings him up to 55 points.

Price is likely around 100 points in this league. 35 wins, 5-7 shutouts, some OTL, shootout saves (I'm assuming that's the last cat, weird one to count)....he's potentially twice as valuable as Hiller. I understand OP would be leaving value on the bench with Price and Hiller, but is it really worth worrying about when that value is Hiller on a bad hockey team?

Hornqvist will have more value than Palat this season, possibly by a good margin. But he won't be twice as valuable. I think I'd have to go with the Price/Palat side.