Survivor Pool 2014-15

[egstud19]

still deciding on who to pick with my two picks for survivor this week...my choices are lions , chargers , steelers , colts ? who you guys prefer ...or shall i use both picks on same team and hope to win 1 game instead of 2

[Axeman33]

I went with the Chargers but I only have to pick one team.

If I had to take two, from that list, I'd probably go with the Colts for my 2nd option.

[Pengwin7]

eg: I already gave my suggestions.
But hey... always OK to go with your gut (instead of the spread) and take a team like Washington.
I mean, why go with the numbers when we can go with our gut?

Hey Big EV i like your thinking ..
Shall i go for Wash and Chicago?

[Big Ev]

Going with the biggest spread is fine but whoever wins a survivor pool will have to win by picking a close game eventually, and going with their gut or the trends (not just a spread). Easier to take close games earlier on in the year because we don't know who the great teams are yet.

Whoever took New Orleans against the Browns s already done.

If you go with the big spreads every week you won't win.

[Axeman33]

I agree that at some point you have to gamble but doing it early in the season isn't when I like to do it.

I'd rather wait a few weeks to see who really pulls away and shows their true colors.

How many expected the Niners and Colts to be 1-2 this early on.

[Big Ev]

I agree that at some point you have to gamble but doing it early in the season isn't when I like to do it.

I'd rather wait a few weeks to see who really pulls away and shows their true colors.

How many expected the Niners and Colts to be 1-2 this early on.

That's my point exactly.

I think going purely on spreads is better later on in the year once we see which teams are great and which aren't.

If you knock off all the studs early on then you have to make close calls later on or pick shitty teams and hope for a hail mary.

This being said I would probably go with SD this week since I don't think they are great. But Jacksonville will win a game at one point lol.

[Pengwin7]

Casual fans like us are simply not smarter than Vegas / oddsmakers.

To win a suicide pool, you have to move on each week. That's key item #1.
Key item #2 is to use average teams when you can.

Jacksonville and Oakland are by far the worst teams in the NFL.
Which means, that if you've got a chance to use an "average" NFL team and cross them off your list, because they are playing OAK or JAC, you do it.

FTR: I did two suicide pools last year.
If somebody clicks on my Yahoo! user ID, they'll see them.

I finished 1 of 14 (actually, it was a 3-way tie) in the DobberElimination league last year.
And in my Friends Pool (with 20 entries), I went out with four of the final five teams last year in Week 10.

I played the spread.

Gut calls just get you eliminated in Week 3.
Gotta at least get out of September.

[Big Ev]

Casual fans like us are simply not smarter than Vegas / oddsmakers.

To win a suicide pool, you have to move on each week. That's key item #1.
Key item #2 is to use average teams when you can.

Jacksonville and Oakland are by far the worst teams in the NFL.
Which means, that if you've got a chance to use an "average" NFL team and cross them off your list, because they are playing OAK or JAC, you do it.

FTR: I did two suicide pools last year.
If somebody clicks on my Yahoo! user ID, they'll see them.

I finished 1 of 14 (actually, it was a 3-way tie) in the DobberElimination league last year.
And in my Friends Pool (with 30+ entries), I went out with four of the final five teams last year in Week 10.

I played the spread.

Gut calls just get you eliminated in Week 3.

I get it Pengwin, my main point was using Key Item #2. That's what I have done so far.

My point is spreads aren't perfect for the beginning of the year since it's a crapshoot. Lots of people actually thought the Jags might be good this season.

But anyways, no matter what strategy you use it still depends on luck for the most part.

[Axeman33]

That's my point exactly.

I think going purely on spreads is better later on in the year once we see which teams are great and which aren't.

If you knock off all the studs early on then you have to make close calls later on or pick shitty teams and hope for a hail mary.

This being said I would probably go with SD this week since I don't think they are great. But Jacksonville will win a game at one point lol.

I agree, they will snipe one and I surely hope this isn't the week.