Drafting 10th in a 10 team league

[hockeyrobot]

What should I look for in round 1. Who should I be hoping drops to me? I've been thinking I wanna take a RB and WR....

[One87]

What should I look for in round 1. Who should I be hoping drops to me? I've been thinking I wanna take a RB and WR....

Definitely go WR. It's a passing league. Most go elite back, but it's a new league. Backs get more touches and "potentially" more opportunities to score. However, they take more of a beating and are not as durable, an elite WR can match an elite back's production with less than half the hits. And he gets hit on average by the smallest defender of all.

Don't be afraid to take another WR back to back, especially if the elite backs are gone. That is a HUGE advantage as you would have two elite players who will carry your team a lot further than 1 and a possible - reaching for a back.

QB is deep and so is TE pretty much. Between RB and WR, WR is a tick deeper, giving you an advantage if you stack.


Look for D. Thomas (Den) and Dez Bryant to be there. If one is missing, I'd then look at Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffrey.

[Pengwin7]

hockeyrobot!
Hey man!!! You need to be around the forums more!

Well... setting up your draft at the turn means you have picks 10,11... 30,31... 50,51... 70,71.

Some things I've learned this year:

1. ELITE TIERS: 5 RB, 3WR, 1TE... 3 QB. #10 is a tough draft position because the first 9 could go off the board, leaving you with a QB/Tier II RB/WR/TE. I do think you have to accept, at this slot, that you have to take ONE QB. No, it's not ideal... but there is separation from the first three elite QB (Manning, Rodgers, Brees) and the "pack" 4th-14th. If you pass on these three elite QB, they fall to other teams and then you've have NO ELITE players at any position. So, I think you have to take 1 QB. Hopefully, somebody else takes 1 QB and then you get one of the 9.

2. The "Nine": RB (Charles, McCoy, AP, Forte, Lacy), WR (Megatron, Demaryius, Dez), TE (Graham). If one falls to you, you take them. If not, you are into Tier II... which means you take the #6 RB (DeMarco or Marshawn) or the #4 WR (AJ Green, B.Marshall or AJ Green). Personally, I think I'd go with a WR.

3. So, assuming you are forced into QB/WR (which I think happens), start focusing now on what's going to be there at 30,31. There's going to be some decent RBs and very solid WRs. I'd still focus on WRs, and take a V-Jax or Cobb or V.Cruz if they are still on the board (likely). If Gerhart, Stacy, Martin, or Ellington are on the board, I'd say you take one as your RB1. There is a small possibility that Gronk (don't think so) or Julius Thomas (possibly) are on the board. If that's true, I'd take one of those TE ahead of the guys previous mentioned. These two TE are in a Tier II (my opinion)... and there is a HUGE drop-off after that.

In summary:
Round 1/2: QB/WR (likely, you are going to be forced into this). You could also go WR/WR... but I just don't think that's going to win you a championship... and it reduces your draft flexibility.


Out of curiousity - how many bench positions?
I've seen leagues with 4 or 5 bench positions and I've seen leagues with 8 bench positions.
Bench positions will be VERY, VERY, VERY important in strategy this year... (due to RB timeshares & uncertainty, this year).

[hockeyrobot]

Great great posts. Thanks guys. And glad to be back!!

I guess adding my league setup would be helpful eh.

QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, WR/TE, WR/RB .....with 6 bench spots.

Pengwin I love your thoughts about grabbing the elite guys as I was thinking about doing the same thing. I didn't do that last year when I took Rice and MJD late and early round 1 and 2 respectively. RBs are so hit and miss and I really hate that a lot of leagues start with HUGE RB runs. How many guys last year drafted round 1 or 2 finished outside the top 10 at RB? Martin, Spiller, Rice, MJD, Morris.....

Anyways. I feel like Manning will be the only QB to go before I pick.

[Pengwin7]

Anyways. I feel like Manning will be the only QB to go before I pick.

That would be good for you if Manning goes.
If Manning goes, it's either going to be Lacy (RB5) or Dez Bryant (WR3) that you'll get.
+ Rodgers or Brees (your choice).

That would be an incredible start for you!!!!

[TheWhale]

hockeyrobot!
Hey man!!! You need to be around the forums more!

Well... setting up your draft at the turn means you have picks 10,11... 30,31... 50,51... 70,71.

Some things I've learned this year:

1. ELITE TIERS: 5 RB, 3WR, 1TE... 3 QB. #10 is a tough draft position because the first 9 could go off the board, leaving you with a QB/Tier II RB/WR/TE. I do think you have to accept, at this slot, that you have to take ONE QB. No, it's not ideal... but there is separation from the first three elite QB (Manning, Rodgers, Brees) and the "pack" 4th-14th. If you pass on these three elite QB, they fall to other teams and then you've have NO ELITE players at any position. So, I think you have to take 1 QB. Hopefully, somebody else takes 1 QB and then you get one of the 9.

2. The "Nine": RB (Charles, McCoy, AP, Forte, Lacy), WR (Megatron, Demaryius, Dez), TE (Graham). If one falls to you, you take them. If not, you are into Tier II... which means you take the #6 RB (DeMarco or Marshawn) or the #4 WR (AJ Green, B.Marshall or AJ Green). Personally, I think I'd go with a WR.

3. So, assuming you are forced into QB/WR (which I think happens), start focusing now on what's going to be there at 30,31. There's going to be some decent RBs and very solid WRs. I'd still focus on WRs, and take a V-Jax or Cobb or V.Cruz if they are still on the board (likely). If Gerhart, Stacy, Martin, or Ellington are on the board, I'd say you take one as your RB1. There is a small possibility that Gronk (don't think so) or Julius Thomas (possibly) are on the board. If that's true, I'd take one of those TE ahead of the guys previous mentioned. These two TE are in a Tier II (my opinion)... and there is a HUGE drop-off after that.

In summary:
Round 1/2: QB/WR (likely, you are going to be forced into this). You could also go WR/WR... but I just don't think that's going to win you a championship... and it reduces your draft flexibility.


Out of curiousity - how many bench positions?
I've seen leagues with 4 or 5 bench positions and I've seen leagues with 8 bench positions.
Bench positions will be VERY, VERY, VERY important in strategy this year... (due to RB timeshares & uncertainty, this year).

Nailed it. Well done

[hockeyrobot]

That would be good for you if Manning goes.
If Manning goes, it's either going to be Lacy (RB5) or Dez Bryant (WR3) that you'll get.
+ Rodgers or Brees (your choice).

That would be an incredible start for you!!!!

If that happens I think Id have to go RB and WR. I know....I know. But I'm ALWAYS one to wait for QBs. Even if I went in with the strategy of nabbing a QB....guarantee I'd change when Im on the clock

[Pengwin7]

Well... I can tell you how I do it as I do fantasy hockey.

Your league will "count":
*10 QB
*30 RB (assuming the RB/WR flex is RB)
*30 WR (assuming the WR/TE flex is WR)
*10 TE

The elite QBs will rack up about 360pts, with the #10 QB (late-draftee) around 300pts. That's a relative difference of 60pts.
The elite RB will rack up about 230-250pts, with the #30 RB around 160pts. That's a relative difference of 70-90pts.
The Tier II WRs will rack up about 200pts, with the #30 WR around 150pts. That's a relative difference of 50pts.
The TEs are projected for about Graham (190pts), Gronk (160pts), J.Thomas (150pts), with the #10 TE around 110pts. Relative difference = 40-50pts.

This is why the elite RBs go off the board first.
But it also shows why the elite QBs are still worth taking.
People (incl. me) have been burned by not having good WRs... but the relative difference is the smallest and WRs always emerge.

Waiting on a QB is fine, but not only are you leaving passing on an elite QB, it also means you are leaving them on the board for the teams that JUST NABBED an elite WR or RB at draft spots 7, 8, 9.

[hockeyrobot]

I've given out too much rep in my recent return....but man Pengwin you have some coming your way soon!

[rataylor22]

If it's not too late, I'd wait on QBs too. Sorry Peng (and damn giving away our league draft strategy

But I'd rather start with a good RB and a WR and then draft like Cutler or Romo or Ryan for my QB than take a QB super early.

HockeyRobot I sent you a PM with some names to target, I can't give Pen the name of everyone I like lol.

[Pengwin7]

If it's not too late, I'd wait on QBs too. Sorry Peng (and damn giving away our league draft strategy

But I'd rather start with a good RB and a WR and then draft like Cutler or Romo or Ryan for my QB than take a QB super early.

HockeyRobot I sent you a PM with some names to target, I can't give Pen the name of everyone I like lol.

Well, OK... but consider a 1st round/5th round QB/RB tandem.

a) A.Rodgers (1-10)/Ben Tate(5-50)
vs.
b) Cutler (5-50)/DeMarco Murray(1-10)

I don't know... I still prefer a).
But, to each, their own.

[Axeman33]

I'd almost consider a RB/WR with your first two picks and hope you can snag a guy like Kapaernick or Russell Wilson at 31

[rataylor22]

Well, OK... but consider a 1st round/5th round QB/RB tandem.

a) A.Rodgers (1-10)/Ben Tate(5-50)
vs.
b) Cutler (5-50)/DeMarco Murray(1-10)

I don't know... I still prefer a).
But, to each, their own.

Rodgers likely outscores Cutler by 3-5 each week.

Demarco likely outscores Tate by 5+ each week.

[dejeanneret]

Tough to know from league to league I suppose, but I'd be surprised if QBs like Cutler, Kap and Wilson are going in the 4th or 5th round in a 10 team league. Each one of them has an ADP right now of low 70s to mid 90s overall.

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/qb.php#latest-update

I'd absolutely wait on drafting a QB in a 10 team league.

[Pengwin7]

Rodgers likely outscores Cutler by 3-5 each week.

Demarco likely outscores Tate by 5+ each week.

The site I'm using has:

340pts Rodgers
270pts Cutler
...
200pts D.Murray
150pts Ben Tate

But... that's of course subjective to whose stats you trust.

And in our league last year.
Team owning Peyton Manning: 1st regular season, 1st playoffs.
Team owning Drew Brees: 2nd regular season, 3rd playoffs.
[Rodgers INJ.]