Niemi vs. Lehtonen

[MarmotKing]

Hey guys,

Who would you rather own/keep in a points only (W=2pts, SO=1pt) in the league bellow. Can only play 1 goalie per week.

- Niemi as helped me win championships, but seems he could be loosing the #1 job by mid-season.

- Lehtonen as been quite injury free now and posting good numbers on an up and coming Dallas team.

- I have also been thinking about keeping both goalies for next year, but I would have to drop a forward (who I would probably start as skater.)

I still have time to decide as we don't set our keepers until late september.

I tried moving a goalie, but there doesn't seem to be any interest at this point.

Thanks for the feedback.

[petegreg21]

I'd much rather have Lehtonen at this point. I foresee him putting up a pretty good season. He was always solid as is behind mediocre teams but now with Jim Nill at the helm and Dallas making some moves I love Lehtonen's position going forward!

As an aside, in a keep 6 + 1 rookie, I'd roll:
Stamkos, Couture, Sedin, Wheeler, Karlsson, Lehtonen. Does Kreider count as a rookie? If not looks like you're stuck with Grigs!

[MarmotKing]

I'd much rather have Lehtonen at this point. I foresee him putting up a pretty good season. He was always solid as is behind mediocre teams but now with Jim Nill at the helm and Dallas making some moves I love Lehtonen's position going forward!

As an aside, in a keep 6 + 1 rookie, I'd roll:
Stamkos, Couture, Sedin, Wheeler, Karlsson, Lehtonen. Does Kreider count as a rookie? If not looks like you're stuck with Grigs!

Thanks!

Yes, Kreider counts as a rookie and is my current rookie keeper so far. For forwards its 23 years old and younger and never got to 60pts.

[metaldude26]

Yeah, I'd hitch my saddle to Lehtonen. He's uncontested in his role as the Stars starter. Even if it turns out the Stars don't hit the way everyone expects, he'll still get his 60+ starts and win at least half. Meanwhile, Niemi's job as starter is definitely up for grabs. Even if he doesn't lose the gig entirely, it doesn't seem like he'll start more than 55 contests. I think (barring injuries) the worst case scenario is Niemi wins 3-4 more games but with a couple fewer shutouts. Not a negligible difference by any means but the upside vs. downside pendulum definitely leans towards Lehtonen.

Best Case:

Lehtonen = 40 wins, 7 shutouts.
Niemi = 35 wins, 5 shutouts.

Worst Case = Lehtonen 30 wins, 3 shutouts.
Niemi = 20 wins, 2 shutouts.

And to be fair, I might be a little bit light on the best case for Niemi. It's possible he bounces back and Stalock is a flop but even then it's going to be tough for Niemi to match last season's 39 wins, which is why I see something closer to his previous career high of 35 as a more realistic option.

[vitun-tyhmä]

Lehtonen for sure, he's the guaranteed #1, he's playing well, the team is solid, he's your pick

[havanablast21]

Up until this year I would have said Niemi. Better Goalie, More Durable and better team.

But now with the changes Dallas has made, I'm excited to see how good they can become and with San Jose in a bit of flux (maybe not) I think Lehtonen is in a far stronger position to succeed.

Give me the revitalized BAB lehtonen!

[Scorgasm]

Two years ago Niemi was the top point-getter in our league. Last year he was 3rd behind Crosby and Rask (2pts win, 3 more for SO). Lehtonen finished 7th. Both are the same age. They both have identical career save %.
I think you have to just go with their situation. Niemi has a chance of losing his spot with Stalock while Lehtonen is not being pushed so hard by anyone but there is a small scare of an injury. I like the direction that Dallas is headed right now but no doubt SJ still has a good team.
With all that said what I do see happening is Niemi GP going down (even if he keeps the No. 1 spot) because of the confidence they have in Stalock (maybe closer to 60) which I think gives Lehtonen the advantage here.
Decision: Lehtonen

[MarmotKing]

Nice imput so far guys.

I agree that the situation in SJ is a thing of concern. Stalock is still mostly unproven and Niemi is a good goalie in the season. But SJ seems to want to give Stalock more starts this season. I tend to try to stay away from controversy in net. I just don't want a Luongo/Schneider situation next year with my starter.

As for Lehtonen, he's growing on me. I try my best not to buy too much into hypes (what Dallas are doing is pretty nice), but I can certainly see them in the playoffs. He seems to have the teams confidence and the backups aren't looking to take his job next year.

This decision will be hard to make.

[Call of Doughty]

I'm not overly confident about either of these two. Lehtonen seems to miss some time each year and Niemi now has competition. Niemi is still money during the regular season. I'd keep Niemi, bank the wins, keep ear to ground (Stalock) and look to draft KL. Keeping both is not a bad idea either. Which skaters would you consider dropping?

[MarmotKing]

I'm not overly confident about either of these two. Lehtonen seems to miss some time each year and Niemi now has competition. Niemi is still money during the regular season. I'd keep Niemi, bank the wins, keep ear to ground (Stalock) and look to draft KL. Keeping both is not a bad idea either. Which skaters would you consider dropping?

So far I am keeping Stamkos, Wheeler, Sedin, Karlsson and 1 goalie.

My last keeper would be one of Couture, Stepan, Ladd or 1 extra goalie.

I have Kreider as a rookie keeper, but trying to find an upgrade for my rookie at the moment.

[First Round Pick]

Lehtonen in this format quite easily, especially as a keeper considering Niemi only has one more year on his contract. Remember he was yanked in Game #5 and didn't start Game #6 against LA, you don't do that if you have the confidence in him to be your #1.

Lehtonen is also signed for the next four years at slightly decreasing pay levels... Dallas will be happy to have that going forward as well.

EDIT: I would also lean towards Couture over Stepan for that last keeper, ahead of Ladd for sure.

[MarmotKing]

Remember he was yanked in Game #5 and didn't start Game #6 against LA, you don't do that if you have the confidence in him to be your #1.

Yeah that is what has me worried.

EDIT: I would also lean towards Couture over Stepan for that last keeper, ahead of Ladd for sure.

Even with Ladd being a LW, which is always tougher to acquire.

[First Round Pick]

Even with Ladd being a LW, which is always tougher to acquire.

Even with Ladd, I think last year's small decline will continue. I'm guessing Couture would be picked up very quickly in a re-draft and held as a keeper by a number of teams, Ladd I don't think is a high enough LW to have the same aura about him.

[Savvy1982]

I'm trying to deal off Niemi for Luongo - I don't need a guy who's potentially going to start losing starts as the season goes on.

[dejeanneret]

I've been a big Niemi fan and supporter over the years, but for reasons others have discussed I'd go with Lehtonen at this point too. Right or wrong, Niemi is going to be the fall guy for the playoff debacle (which isn't correct IMO, but it is what it is). The clock is ticking on his time in SJ and there aren't many landing spots for goalies at this point if the team decides to pull the plug mid-season.