Benn/Huberdeau/1st for Mackinnon

[vitun-tyhmä]

Its not silly at all, every player has a ceiling beyond which they won't go, Benn is right up tight to it. What do you imagine happening, him getting a better center than Seguin? He was just shy of ppg last season (79 pts), maybe a few pts higher 82-85? The point being that players don't have a huge breakout season and then do it the next season and the next, and the next, it has to stop at some point and for Benn that is right around ppg, if you're planning on more than that you're going to be disappointed.

[petegreg21]

Its not silly at all, every player has a ceiling beyond which they won't go, Benn is right up tight to it. What do you imagine happening, him getting a better center than Seguin? He was just shy of ppg last season (79 pts), maybe a few pts higher 82-85? The point being that players don't have a huge breakout season and then do it the next season and the next, and the next, it has to stop at some point and for Benn that is right around ppg, if you're planning on more than that you're going to be disappointed.

Well, yeah, he is gonna get a better center than Tyler Seguin. He's going to get Tyler Seguin in his prime, which kills present day Tyler Seguin.

What I imagine happening is both players, age 22 and 25, continue to develop their games, develop their chemistry and continue to light it up. Like I keep saying, there's no reason to believe Benn isn't a solid 80-85 point player for the foreseeable future and he's going to add plenty of other stats to the mix too. You said he settles in at 75 which I think is selling him short. It also doesn't address everything else he brings to the table.

[vitun-tyhmä]

Well, yeah, he is gonna get a better center than Tyler Seguin. He's going to get Tyler Seguin in his prime, which kills present day Tyler Seguin.

What I imagine happening is both players, age 22 and 25, continue to develop their games, develop their chemistry and continue to light it up. Like I keep saying, there's no reason to believe Benn isn't a solid 80-85 point player for the foreseeable future and he's going to add plenty of other stats to the mix too. You said he settles in at 75 which I think is selling him short. It also doesn't address everything else he brings to the table.

Well that makes no sense. Seguin is not going to make him hit more or block more shots or take more penalties. And actually as Seguin becomes a better center I can see Benn's bonus FOWs declining too. 80-85 pts sure I can buy that but not a big boost in peripheral stats. What does Dobber predict Benn for long term anyway?

[Pengwin7]

re: Benn.

Potential reasons for increase:
Benn logged 19min/game last year. Could that go up? Yes. Many top line forwards log 20-22min if they are clearly better than line 2.
Benn scored 19 PPP last year. Could that go up? Yes. Many top PP1 forwards churn out 30PPP... even 40PPP in a crazy good year.

Potential reasons for maintaining pace:
Benn shots 12.2% last year. Is that his average? Yes.

Potential reasons for decline:
???

I'd be curious to hear some reasons why he can't repeat point-per-game.
He's not logging insane minutes, he didn't shoot some insane %, and he didn't put up an unrepeatable PPP total.

For me, these are the four key things I look at when determining how a player's scoring will fluctuate:
*TOI
*Even-Strength Production
*PPP
*SH%

Benn wasn't excessively high in any of these... which means he could repeat all of them.

[Savvy1982]

re: Benn.

Potential reasons for increase:
Benn logged 19min/game last year. Could that go up? Yes. Many top line forwards log 20-22min if they are clearly better than line 2.
Benn scored 19 PPP last year. Could that go up? Yes. Many top PP1 forwards churn out 30PPP... even 40PPP in a crazy good year.

Potential reasons for maintaining pace:
Benn shots 12.2% last year. Is that his average? Yes.

Potential reasons for decline:
???

I'd be curious to hear some reasons why he can't repeat point-per-game.
He's not logging insane minutes, he didn't shoot some insane %, and he didn't put up an unrepeatable PPP total.

For me, these are the four key things I look at when determining how a player will fluctuate:
*ES Production
*TOI
*PPP
*SH%

Benn wasn't excessively high in any of these... which means he could repeat all of them.

I love your reasoning - mostly because I own Benn - but also because of how well thought out your responses always are.

[petegreg21]

Well that makes no sense. Seguin is not going to make him hit more or block more shots or take more penalties. And actually as Seguin becomes a better center I can see Benn's bonus FOWs declining too. 80-85 pts sure I can buy that but not a big boost in peripheral stats. What does Dobber predict Benn for long term anyway?

Lol i didn't say Seguin becoming better boosts Benn's peripheral stats His peripheral stats are his peripheral stats and they're very good now and they'll be very good 5 years from now too

[vitun-tyhmä]

Lol i didn't say Seguin becoming better boosts Benn's peripheral stats His peripheral stats are his peripheral stats and they're very good now and they'll be very good 5 years from now too

oh i misunderstood. But you were arguing not that his peripherals woudl stay the same but that they would increase, that's what makes no sense. The peripherals tend to more a reflection of the player's personality and playing style (gritty/tough = PIM/hits, defensive = blocks and +/- sometimes, SOG = sniper) it's not the type of thing you see big changes in, not like the points which increase as the player matures and hits his prime. Benn is in his prime now that leaves less space for pts to go up. I think he's a 75-ppg winger but I get that he's highly hyped by owners right now because he had such a great season. To each his own, only time will tell right?

[rataylor22]

The reason MacKinnon holds more weight because of his playoff performances is because this is an 18 year old kid who can just go out an absolutely dominate games from every angle. This isn't a bully like Bickell who bangs in a few extra goals around the net or a guy like Krejci who just has ice in his veins for 20 games. This is a kid who has the potential to be flat out dominant and he can't even drink legally when he goes home to Cole Harbour.

Again, I don't really subscribe to this. Did he dominate from every angle? I mean yea he had 10 points, but if you're looking at the boxscores I see a guy that was able to dominate a favorable matchup, not a game. He had all 10 points on home ice, in 3 games. 0 points in Minnesota, 0 points in game 7. He also finished a -2 in games played in Minnesota when he finished +2 in the series overall. So like I said. He dominated a favorable matchup, not the game. I love Mack but the hype train is a little too high for me right now. Nobody is really accounting for the extra responsibility of playing center, the loss of Stastny, and new linemates. He isn't going to be playing favorable matchups all season long. Do I think he can get to Stamkos/Tavares level? Yea sure. Next year? Nope. Hell. Tavares isn't even at Tavares level based on how people value him and its been 5 years.

[petegreg21]

oh i misunderstood. But you were arguing not that his peripherals woudl stay the same but that they would increase, that's what makes no sense. The peripherals tend to more a reflection of the player's personality and playing style (gritty/tough = PIM/hits, defensive = blocks and +/- sometimes, SOG = sniper) it's not the type of thing you see big changes in, not like the points which increase as the player matures and hits his prime. Benn is in his prime now that leaves less space for pts to go up. I think he's a 75-ppg winger but I get that he's highly hyped by owners right now because he had such a great season. To each his own, only time will tell right?

Ugh Can you go back and re read what I said please? I'm saying he's going to be an 80-85 point guy and he's going to add his 125 hits, 60 pims, 275 SOG etc. I didn't say "add to", I said "add". As in he's a category filler with a full stat line. If what I said is truly that difficult to understand, I sincerely apologize to you.

Again, I don't really subscribe to this. Did he dominate from every angle? I mean yea he had 10 points, but if you're looking at the boxscores I see a guy that was able to dominate a favorable matchup, not a game. He had all 10 points on home ice, in 3 games. 0 points in Minnesota, 0 points in game 7. He also finished a -2 in games played in Minnesota when he finished +2 in the series overall. So like I said. He dominated a favorable matchup, not the game. I love Mack but the hype train is a little too high for me right now. Nobody is really accounting for the extra responsibility of playing center, the loss of Stastny, and new linemates. He isn't going to be playing favorable matchups all season long. Do I think he can get to Stamkos/Tavares level? Yea sure. Next year? Nope. Hell. Tavares isn't even at Tavares level based on how people value him and its been 5 years.

I've been pretty vocal this summer actually that I'm not expecting much of an upswing in points this season. Switching from RW to C, especially at such a young age, is a very tough thing to do. He's going to have some growing pains. I'd bank on him reaching 63 points again but not much more. At which time he almost gets into "buy low" territory next summer. Then again Seguin switched from RW to C pretty seamlessly so we'll have to wait and see! Colorado has a lot of quality forward which should help him along nicely. He only won 43% of his FO last year so hopefully he's been working on that too.

[vitun-tyhmä]

Ugh Can you go back and re read what I said please? I'm saying he's going to be an 80-85 point guy and he's going to add his 125 hits, 60 pims, 275 SOG etc. I didn't say "add to", I said "add". As in he's a category filler with a full stat line. If what I said is truly that difficult to understand, I sincerely apologize to you.

So his peripherals stay the same and his pts go up by 5? Ok great.

Versus MacKinnon who played the start of the season on the 3rd line with limited minutes and less PP time in his rookie season. If anyone stands to improve it's Mac.

[Canucks_fan18]

Give me the Benn side I vaule him as top 15 forward or better in a multicat and the Mack hype is sky high, we have only seen preview of what he can do. Mack might settle in as a 65-75 point guy we just dont know at this point. Unless you think his potential is 90 points plus in which I am not buying yet then I would go with the proven commodity in Benn expically in a multicat format