Landed Stamkos. How did I do?

[LadySlugs]

Wow that's a crazy good deal for you. I have never seen a deal like that involving Stamkos!

[Pengwin7]

I like the Stamkos side here.

But, in truth, the deal is definitely closer than most people think.

1. I think Stammer might be closer to 85pts, without MSL.
2. Let's put Hertl and Bennett at 60pts. For clarity, I think they are both 50pt players, but I'm putting myself in the other-guys-shoes.

So, the deal is:
Stamkos (85pts) + New #9 Keeper (NHL Forward #180, since there is 20 teams x 9F)
vs.
Hertl (60pts) + Bennett (60pts)

The key think is the depth of this pool.
20 teams.
Even looking at the OP's sig, Hertl & Bennett were like his 5th/6th best keepers.
There is some forward depth required to win this pool.

Anyways, the math, with 180F counting, we have to look at NHL scoring.
In a standard season, forward #180F will notch about 32pts.
Team also have deep prospect lists, so there is not necessarily ANY waiver wire players that will emerge.


So, with a #180F forward value at 32pts, we assign relative point value to each player.

Stamkos 85pts = +53pt value
Hertl, if 60pts = +28pt value
Bennett, if 60pts = +28pts value
#180F = +0pts value

So... if this is where a guy values these players, then Hertl/Bennett are slightly better.

I value Hertl/Bennett closer to 50pts.
This makes it Stamkos (+53pts) vs. Hertl/Bennett (+36pts)

Stamkos win.
But the depth (20-team, 9F) of this pool does make these trades a little closer than they would be in a 12-team x 9F or 12-team x 6F pool.

[Kofax]

Further to Pengwin's analysis, you also have to think the OP would have at least one decent prospect he would be able to bring up that would be a better player then the 32 point replacement forward before too long, making this trade an even bigger win.

[Zorro]

Why would this guy accept a deal like this.. Can you say "veto" ??

[STLblues]

Pengwin....you didn't include Barrie or Lehner in your analysis or the draft picks exchanged....however I usually love your arithmetics......you do need to factor in the relative scarcity of these players you assign values to though....just saying Stamkos is a +53 and hertl and bennet are +28 makes no sense...because the amount of "+28 players out there is immense versus that of the "+53" players...

[agentzero]

IMO he dumped a rather large risk in Bennett and can take his chances on bringing up a prospect instead of waiver wire fodder for NHL forward #180. This is a disgusting steal and really don't understand how this happened. As a comish I never veto trades (unless they are drunk, but they have to be reconfirmed sober) as I believe in the market regulating itself (and in people being accountable for their stupidity/genius) but for the life of me I don't get why anyone would part with Stamkos AND picks for very average prospects and a handful of picks that are very low in % to land an all-star prospect in return.

In other news I was able to obtain John Tavares and a 1st round pick for Mike Santorelli and Matt Nieto...

[Spec7ral]

These threads are generally interesting to see the valuation of the top players in the league in terms of fantasy trade value.

This thread was interesting to see what a joke league looks like.

[rataylor22]

IMO he dumped a rather large risk in Bennett and can take his chances on bringing up a prospect instead of waiver wire fodder for NHL forward #180. This is a disgusting steal and really don't understand how this happened. As a comish I never veto trades (unless they are drunk, but they have to be reconfirmed sober) as I believe in the market regulating itself (and in people being accountable for their stupidity/genius) but for the life of me I don't get why anyone would part with Stamkos AND picks for very average prospects and a handful of picks that are very low in % to land an all-star prospect in return.

In other news I was able to obtain John Tavares and a 1st round pick for Mike Santorelli and Matt Nieto...

I would never veto a trade made over drinking. "I was drunk" should never be an acceptable reason to do anything bad. People treat alcohol as an excuse to be irresponsible. I wouldn't ever facilitate that notion.

[agentzero]

These threads are generally interesting to see the valuation of the top players in the league in terms of fantasy trade value.

This thread was interesting to see what a joke league looks like.

LMAO Spec7ral telling it like it is. I mean, I have seen poor deals in my league, like a few years ago Zherdev for Marleau or Joe Thornton for Ryan Ellis and Cam Fowler or such.... but this is nothing like I've seen, not even in the robberies I've seen posted on the forums lol. The league will hate this guy soon. Good on him taking advantage I guess, but wow. lol. Stamkos is near generational.

[Pengwin7]

Pengwin....you didn't include Barrie or Lehner in your analysis or the draft picks exchanged....however I usually love your arithmetics......you do need to factor in the relative scarcity of these players you assign values to though....just saying Stamkos is a +53 and hertl and bennet are +28 makes no sense...because the amount of "+28 players out there is immense versus that of the "+53" players...

Well... true.
I suppose I should've just said "Stamkos side is better" without doing the numbers.

Incomplete work = FAIL.

Well... but you do make a good point.
Factoring in Barrie & Lehner is important as well.
Possibly not so much Lehner, if it's 1G.
But with 80D in play... 20x4D, Barrie is a siginficant increase, by relative math.
That Hertl/Bennett/Barrie side is even closer now.

Regardless - do I get any props for being the only one to note that the trade is close???
I guess not.
(shoulda just said "Stamkos win!")

[agentzero]

I would never veto a trade made over drinking. "I was drunk" should never be an acceptable reason to do anything bad. People treat alcohol as an excuse to be irresponsible. I wouldn't ever facilitate that notion.

Except that this is fantasy hockey, so a get out of jail free card hardly seems hard to give when the league mates are all partying together. It's all about fun anyway.. That kind of strict liability is a bit harsh for our guys, where we are downright strict in every other circumstance (like poorly timed/illegal roster moves or keeper limit drop dates that are not respected).

[rataylor22]

Except that this is fantasy hockey, so a get out of jail free card hardly seems hard to give when the league mates are all partying together. It's all about fun anyway.. That kind of strict liability is a bit harsh for our guys, where we are downright strict in every other circumstance (like poorly timed/illegal roster moves or keeper limit drop dates that are not respected).

I guess my response came off more harsh than I intending. Partying together should be a bargaining tactic . If you can hold your composure together to get a deal done then props haha.

[agentzero]

Regardless - do I get any props for being the only one to note that the trade is close???

No lol, because it's not close (jk lol).

To me it's about the rarity of the commodity obtained and three silver bracelets just do not equate a diamond of the same cost, because diamonds are that much more rare and silver bracelets can easily be replaced.. Depth is important in hockey pools but I feel more often than not, quality wins pools more than does quantity.. Losing an asset like Stamkos with no all-star in return is big.. The only potential all-star on the list to me is Lehner, but he is a 50/50 to me to become a top 15 starting goalie. Talent is there but it takes more than that. He could have done better for Stamkos if he was really looking to move him..

[agentzero]

I guess my response came off more harsh than I intending. Partying together should be a bargaining tactic . If you can hold your composure together to get a deal done then props haha.

Hahahahahaha I completely agree with this lol. Usually we do hold our mates to that account, but drunk trades rarely get sealed anywaym it's always more "talks" than moves. Our league moves like molasses, which can be good sometimes. It took a few years, but trades are made pretty carefully now compared to before.

[Pengwin7]

Testing some more numbers.

With a 9F/4D/1G count, each team is likely keeping 10F/4D/1G (15 keepers, for each of 20 teams).
Total keepers:
200 F
80 D
20 G

In most leagues (most!) guys like Bennett & Hertl are common.
But, here - perhaps they could be in the top 100 in forward scoring.
That makes them a "top half" player.

And Barrie, Barrie could be a top 20 defensemen. Top 25%

Since I forget Barrie, let's call him a 45pt defenseman and do the number.


85 + 32 + 23 = 140pts (with 32pts being the fringe forward, 22pts being the fringe defenseman)
vs
50 + 50 + 45 = 145pts

By pure numbers, this is a slight win for Hertl/Bennett/Barrie.
But yes... I'm still PRO-STAMKOS, because as soon as he upgrades the forward to a 40pt forward and the defenseman to a 30pt defenseman than his side is:

85 + 40 + 30 = 155
vs
50 + 50 + 45 = 145

Anyways... it's closer than it looks.
Most of us don't play in Count 180F leagues, so we aren't used to significant value assigned to a Hertl or Bennett.