PPP: The Hardest Cat to Capture

[Pengwin7]

In Game of Thrones, Arya Stark works on her agility and nimbleness by chasing cats around King's Landing & Flea Bottom.
In fantasy hockey, the hardest cat to capture is powerplay points (PPP).
It runs out.
You've got 30 NHL teams with a PP1 unit and a PP2 unit.
Some teams, like Washington, will let a player play the whole 2min.

Players on PP1 are usually the safest bets.
This means there may only be 30x5 = 150 skaters in the NHL that we'll be rocks for PP production in fantasy pools.

In the modern NHL, we must also remember that not all teams are running a 3F/2D powerplay.
Many teams load-up their offensive weapons by putting a forward at one point and going 4F/1D.
This makes the PP-churning defenseman the rare cat.



A look at last year's PPP numbers:

ELITE PP Producers: 30+ PPP
Forwards (6), including Backstrom (WAS), Ovechkin (WAS), Crosby (PIT), Giroux (PHI), Pavelski (SJ), Malkin (PIT)
Defenseman (2), including Karlsson (OTT), Yandle (PHX)

EXCELLENT PP Producers: 20-29 PPP
Forwards (29): From James Neal to Nick Bonino
Defensemen (11): From James Wiz to Mark Gio

GOOD PP Producers: 15-19 PPP
Forwards (48): From Jamie Benn to Ray Whitney
Defensemen (17): From Torey Krug to Zdeno Chara

AVERAGE PP Producers: 10-14 PPP
Forwards (47): From Jarome Iginla to Damien Brunner
Defensemen (23): From Sergei Gonchar to Nick Leddy


Note the ratios here.
A standard 3F:2D PP unit would mean we'd expect 40% of any range to be defensemen.
A shifted 4F:1D PP unit would mean we'd expect 20% of any range to be defensemen.
So, we should see that the PP distribution in a "range" would fall here.

ELITE: 6F vs. 2D.
Defensemen make up 25% of this range. That's in the 20%-40% range, but low... closer to indicating a 4:1 PP.

EXCELLENT: 29F vs. 11D.
Defensemen make up 27% of this range. Again, in the 20%-40% range, but closer to a 4:1 than a 3:2.

GOOD: 48F vs. 17D.
Defensemen make up 25% of this range. Again, in the 20%-40% range, but closer to a 4:1.

AVERAGE: 47F vs. 23D.
Defensemen make up 33% of this range. This is a little closer to a 3:2 PP.



Summary:
1. In leagues with Hits/Blocks, you have to get Blocks through defensemen and it is very hard to get the super-D-man that does everything. So, in Blocks leagues, everything written above isn't really important since I tend to late draft defensemen for Blocks... and try to build in Hits/PIM with those guys.

2. In leagues without Hits/Blocks, you are looking for offense in your D-man and if you don't fill up your starting D-slots early... you will have trouble filling out your D with guys that can point on the PP (if that is a cat).
So, you have to consider your league roster allocation:

a. In a 12-team 9F/6D league, there will be 108 F and 72 D in play. The #54 F (half way) notched 17 PPP last year, while the #36 D (half way) notched 13 PPP. The #108 F had 12 PPP, while the #72 D has just 7 PPP.
In this league, you should reach for your D-men sooner... those PPP defensemen will run out during the draft.

b. In a 12-team 9F/4D league, there will be 108 F and 48 D in play. The #54 F (half way) notched 17 PPP last year, while the #24 D (half way) notched 16 PPP. The #108 F had 12 PPP, while the #48 D has 11 PPP.
In this league, the numbers are a little closer. It might be wise to get 1 excellent D, if the top forwards are gone... and then a decent 2nd/3rd D... but I wouldn't be reaching for D.

c. In a 12-team 6F/4D league, there will be 72 F and 48 D in play. The #36 F (half way) notched 19 PPP last year, while the #24 D (half way) notched 16 PPP. The #72 F had 16 PPP, while the #48 D has 11 PPP.
In this league, you should reach for your D-men sooner in the 2ND HALF of the draft... the 15-19 PPP defensemen are actually a thin range... and will dry up fast here.


3. If you are in some other league format, it's good to know where forwards & defensemen line-up.
20 PPP: #35F & #13D.
15 PPP: #83F & #30D.
10 PPP: #130F & #50D.


4. How to "Think about this".
Powerplay points (PPP) "dry up" in a one-year draft. They dry up quickest among D-men, because many NHL teams these days run a 4F/1D powerplay.
Howevever, the ratio of forward slots to defenseman slots is rarely 4:1. 8F/2D or 12F/3D, there are few leagues like this?
So if your league is 6F/4D or 9F/6D... realize that PPP for D-men are scarce... and that gives them value.

Thus, if your league doesn't have the gritty D categories (Hit/Block), you have to get some offense from your D... and if you don't get it early enough... it'll be gone.
Young forwards emerge yearly... much more often then young defensemen.


5. My Advice in non-Hit/non-Block one-year leagues.
If the ratio of D-men is 9F/6D or 6F/4D, you need to be looking to get your defense drafted to a "less than one" spot, quickly.
In a 6D league, aim to get 5D that can score PPP.... before they dry up. Top 50D men, guys that will get 10+ PPP. If there are 12-teams, that's 72D needed, so get in and get from the 50... not from 51-72.
In a 4D league, aim to get 3D that can score PPP.... before they dry up. Top 30D men, guys that will get 15+ PPP. If there are 12-teams, that's 48D needed, so get in an get from the 30... not from 31-48.



Good luck in your one-year leagues and happy drafting those D-men!

[rataylor22]

Geez Pen. How come you aren't a writer for this site? Great info!

[mounD]

Bravo. Great information here, as usual.

[Axeman33]

After getting tied up in multiple keeper leagues, I haven't participated in a 1year league for a few years now.

Great stuff P7.

[Pengwin7]

After getting tied up in multiple keeper leagues, I haven't participated in a 1year league for a few years now.
Great stuff P7.

Which reminds me... I have a league for you to join, my friend!

[dooley89]

Such a fluffy thread by Pengwin7!

Just kidding, great article!
I always remember you saying PPP runs out first and I have mentioned it to guys in various threads I have commented on!
Thanks for this!!!!

[doulos]

Good to put some numbers to something that makes sense in general.

The higher the ratio of defensemen to forwards in your league, the earlier you will have to draft those defensemen in order to get the value out of them that you want. Does that makes sense?

What's great about this that this is really just one aspect, of one category, of one position - and already it's got some great nuances to it. Once you inject 12 categories, wingers, goalies, etc, it becomes a real task to figure things out.

[maximumass]

Good read but the title needs some work, there are much tougher categories to forecast than PPP

[rataylor22]

Good read but the title needs some work, there are much tougher categories to forecast than PPP

The issue isn't with forecasting PPP, it's with acquiring them.

[doulos]

From a forecasting perspective you're right. Like Shorthanded points.

From a 'This category is going to run out and give you no options sooner than you realize' standpoint, PPP is up there for sure.

[maximumass]

The issue isn't with forecasting PPP, it's with acquiring them.

You mean you already know who they are, you just can't get them off the other GMs?
I'd like to read that article!

[Pengwin7]

Good read but the title needs some work, there are much tougher categories to forecast than PPP

Well... I'm not a paid writer... just a forum member trying to add some thoughts.
If everybody posts their nuggets of value that they've found to work for them, we'd all be dominating our pools against the non-Dobbers.
That's what a good community does - shares information, improves others.

Your comment is a pet peeve of mine though, to be honest.
1. If you don't like the title, suggest a better name.
2. If you think there are tougher categories to capture, then list them.

Criticizing somebody's efforts without proposing an alternate (better) solution is not helpful.
It's just complaining.
My 4 year old daughter can do this.

[rougie]

Great info P7!

[doulos]

You mean you already know who they are, you just can't get them off the other GMs?
I'd like to read that article!

I believe the idea here is the difficulty in acquiring the needed points at draft time, not via trading.

[lucifer316]

I started making my moves last season focusing on PPP as my primary target and I was pleased with the results

I am not sure the problem with the title of the thread to be honest with you, the thread was exactly what I expected it to be about when I opened it