Proven Eberle or Potential Drouin... That is the question

[Call of Doughty]

Eberle for the next two years will out produce Drouin. After that, it's all JD. I own both. I covet Drouin much more.

[havanablast21]

He had a 65 point season and a half season that was looking to be 60+. He was an incredible jr player as well. It's not like he came out of nowhere. Drouin has not played a single game and yet Eberle is the overrated one? Odd.

What THIS tells me Doulos, is that you're not the type of aggressive GM who's going to take a chance on a young stud.

Would you have moved Eberle for Mack at the beginning of last year? IF no ... fair enought. Would you move Eberle for Mack right now? If yes... then you're the type of GM who would rather pay premium for achieved talent IMO. If you WOULDN'T move Eberle for Mack right now... then "Cough" I don't think we have anything to talk about.

As for your first point... no... I have NOT made up my mind yet... admittedly I've made a hypothetical pitch but just testing the waters. I'm doing my due dilligence here to see if this move makes sense while I wait for response/discussion with the OGM. That's merely it. I'm not undervalueing Eberle at all...rather... trying to see who on my team makes the most sense to lure in what I'm wondering will be the "MACK type experience" this year. Based on ALL my keepers, I see Eberle as an asset that I could use to lure Drouin away and one that I don't think will kill my production.

Based on my Cats... Eberle really only produces in Pts and PPP ... but is fairly absent in PIM's and has COST me points in +/-. IT's not all about whether he will score 60 or 75. My guess is that Drouin will be a similar point producer if not better then Eberle down the road... Similar PPP producer as Eberle if not better down the road... and quite likely a better +/- contributor as soon as this year. And given some of his "FIT's" and "Pout's" from last year...could actually gross PIM's north of 40.

But maybe I'm wrong. Hence...that's what why I'm here and that's the rationale behind this thread. (OF WHICH I AM VERY APPRECIATIVE FOR ALL THE TRAFFIC AND VIEW POINTS).

Seems many would make this move, but there's still quite a few (Doulos included) who are testing my conservativeness.

[FantasyHockeyU]

I like winning titles when they present themselves to you. I think in your situation you got a solid chance to win it all this year with Eberle. A silly trade or an injury in your league could change things massively from year to year. So essentially I am taking Eberle, not because I think he is the better player to own, rather because of your team situation. You might kick yourself for not doing the deal, but if you win this year its pretty hard to really care.

[doulos]

What THIS tells me Doulos, is that you're not the type of aggressive GM who's going to take a chance on a young stud.

Only in certain situations, this is true. In cases where I have a real chance to go for it all then I do whatever it takes to set myself up to accomplish that. If it's a super competitive league then winning is extremely difficult and so I try not to pass up those opportunities, but rather overload on those chances to reduce my chances of failing.

[arctic_rogue]

I stand by comment that Eberle is overrated. I've said this from his big season and he has proven me correct. He's solid, absolutely but not to the level his name carries with some people.

Definitely a risk going with Eberle, but I'm just stating my opinion. It's exactly what I'd do.

[petegreg21]

I stand by comment that Eberle is overrated. I've said this from his big season and he has proven me correct. He's solid, absolutely but not to the level his name carries with some people.

Definitely a risk going with Eberle, but I'm just stating my opinion. It's exactly what I'd do.

I agree with you. His name is worth more than his production. Good call.

[havanablast21]

Over rated...possibly... but if he's my weakest keeper forward... Not Too Bad. My biggest complaint about Eberle is that he's not a great multi-cat contributor. Having said that, I really don't have much insight on what type of a contributor Drouin will be (form a Points only vs Multi-cat). Maybe this is the tipping factor. If Drouin has the potential to be a 50 point producer but also produce in other categories...does that help bridge the gap between Eberle and his Career best 75 points and 20+ PPP?

However, If Drouin is just a carbon copy of Eberle but perhaps eventually more point savvy, then maybe the "STAY PUT" camp has a VERY valid point for me.

Again...I really appreciate the varying opinions here. I've still not heard back from the OGM who owns Drouin (a common struggle our league experiences). But from my standpoint...this transaction is still very much open and on the table... however no where near immenent.

[ross10019]

Going against the grain here, he should keep Eberle and increase his chances of winning this year and for the next couple of years, which is how long most of us feel it will likely take Drouin to reach Eberle's point totals.

Eberle is only 24, he's notched 221 pts in the first 274 games of his career (a 66 point average over 82 games). That was on bad teams.

He's on an ascending team, has 5 years left on his contract, and will be likely paired with Hall and RNH on the 1st line (and on PP1) for that entire time. he's known as a clutch goal scorer. How can he not be at or close to, a PPG player going forward?

Plus your league values PPPs and GWGs, Eberle will be huge in those categories, in addition to points.

Plus, as good as Drouin is going to be, Eberle right now has huge name recognition and would fetch a big time return if ever you trade him. Or you could just keep him as a go to winger for the foreseeable future.

Keep Eberle.

[petegreg21]

Over rated...possibly... but if he's my weakest keeper forward... Not Too Bad. My biggest complaint about Eberle is that he's not a great multi-cat contributor. Having said that, I really don't have much insight on what type of a contributor Drouin will be (form a Points only vs Multi-cat). Maybe this is the tipping factor. If Drouin has the potential to be a 50 point producer but also produce in other categories...does that help bridge the gap between Eberle and his Career best 75 points and 20+ PPP?

However, If Drouin is just a carbon copy of Eberle but perhaps eventually more point savvy, then maybe the "STAY PUT" camp has a VERY valid point for me.

Again...I really appreciate the varying opinions here. I've still not heard back from the OGM who owns Drouin (a common struggle our league experiences). But from my standpoint...this transaction is still very much open and on the table... however no where near immenent.

Little-No multi cat value. I don't think he hits at all, not many pims to show. Maybe he tops out like Giroux or at the bottom end he's Eberle. I dunno, I'd risk it...

[rataylor22]

I also think Eberle is overrated.

Unless you've mistyped, either way you have the same lineup of

C - Tavares, Getz
LW - Hall, Kunitz, JVR
RW - Perry, Pominville

and then you have a "FLEX" spot so to speak, which will either be Eberle or Drouin. At this point, If you're competitive and going for the win, you have to keep Eberle. Drouin will not put up 55+ next year, which we can safely bank on from a healthy Eberle. Keep in mind 55 is a pretty low number. If you're wondering if I'm just a risk averse fantasy player, I drafted Crosby with the first overall pick in my keeper league the summer after he first got his concussion, and proceeded to finish last overall in the first year of our keeper league because of it. I understand the investment of potential high reward players. I just think if you've got a shot to win, you always take the chance to win.

Who knows what your keeper roster looks like next year. And for the record, if this guy is a Stamkos lover and has a hard on for Drouin, Eberle likely doesn't get it done. A guy in my league (which has no prospect system) carried Drouin on his team all season because he likes him that much. Looks like this guy is the same. You don't hold a guy in a non-producing roster slot for a year just to trade him away for an OK return. I'd bet Drouin is only available to you in some sort of trade that involves Tavares, Getzlaf, Hall, or Perry (no I'm not saying a 1-for-1 in that situation).

Also as an aside, you should seriously look at keeping Carlson over Reilly on D. But thats just me.

[rataylor22]

Over rated...possibly... but if he's my weakest keeper forward... Not Too Bad. My biggest complaint about Eberle is that he's not a great multi-cat contributor. Having said that, I really don't have much insight on what type of a contributor Drouin will be (form a Points only vs Multi-cat). Maybe this is the tipping factor. If Drouin has the potential to be a 50 point producer but also produce in other categories...does that help bridge the gap between Eberle and his Career best 75 points and 20+ PPP?

However, If Drouin is just a carbon copy of Eberle but perhaps eventually more point savvy, then maybe the "STAY PUT" camp has a VERY valid point for me.

Again...I really appreciate the varying opinions here. I've still not heard back from the OGM who owns Drouin (a common struggle our league experiences). But from my standpoint...this transaction is still very much open and on the table... however no where near immenent.

Little-No multi cat value. I don't think he hits at all, not many pims to show. Maybe he tops out like Giroux or at the bottom end he's Eberle. I dunno, I'd risk it...

Maybe change your wording on this? You aren't really in a "multicat" league. People generally associate that with Hits/SOG/BLKs/PIMs. And while you have PIMs, you don't have any of the others. I think Eberle and Drouin will produce similar PIMs, and I think +/- is generally random and hard to predict. Drouin wont get more PPP than Eberle for a couple years at least.

[havanablast21]

I also think Eberle is overrated.

Unless you've mistyped, either way you have the same lineup of

C - Tavares, Getz
LW - Hall, Kunitz, JVR
RW - Perry, Pominville

and then you have a "FLEX" spot so to speak, which will either be Eberle or Drouin. At this point, If you're competitive and going for the win, you have to keep Eberle. Drouin will not put up 55+ next year, which we can safely bank on from a healthy Eberle. Keep in mind 55 is a pretty low number. If you're wondering if I'm just a risk averse fantasy player, I drafted Crosby with the first overall pick in my keeper league the summer after he first got his concussion, and proceeded to finish last overall in the first year of our keeper league because of it. I understand the investment of potential high reward players. I just think if you've got a shot to win, you always take the chance to win.

Who knows what your keeper roster looks like next year. And for the record, if this guy is a Stamkos lover and has a hard on for Drouin, Eberle likely doesn't get it done. A guy in my league (which has no prospect system) carried Drouin on his team all season because he likes him that much. Looks like this guy is the same. You don't hold a guy in a non-producing roster slot for a year just to trade him away for an OK return. I'd bet Drouin is only available to you in some sort of trade that involves Tavares, Getzlaf, Hall, or Perry (no I'm not saying a 1-for-1 in that situation).

Also as an aside, you should seriously look at keeping Carlson over Reilly on D. But thats just me.

All great points. The OGM did I fact keep drouin all last year only to finish outside the money at 4th. He also has Barkov and Gardiner and while I don't see Barkov holding much value, he does like Gardiner. Not sure he's as keen to keep all these young guys and finish outside the cash again.

But who knows.

Still...awesome analysis! Thanks Rataylor

[ross10019]

Maybe change your wording on this? You aren't really in a "multicat" league. People generally associate that with Hits/SOG/BLKs/PIMs. And while you have PIMs, you don't have any of the others. I think Eberle and Drouin will produce similar PIMs, and I think +/- is generally random and hard to predict. Drouin wont get more PPP than Eberle for a couple years at least.

This is a very good point, it's not a true multicat, and in fact it's HEAVILY weighted towards goal-scoring and powerplay production. Eberle will excell in this format, and it won't be long until he's putting up decent plus/minus as well.

[havanablast21]

Maybe change your wording on this? You aren't really in a "multicat" league. People generally associate that with Hits/SOG/BLKs/PIMs. And while you have PIMs, you don't have any of the others. I think Eberle and Drouin will produce similar PIMs, and I think +/- is generally random and hard to predict. Drouin wont get more PPP than Eberle for a couple years at least.

For an offensive talent...eberle losses fails to produce on pims and costs me points on +\-. That's a factor that must be considered past pts and PPP only. So while I do t have all the other cats...I have more to consider than just points.

[Axeman33]

Eberle is only over rated if YOU over rate him. If you expect 65-75 pts with plenty of PPP and a good amount of SOG, then it's hard to say he's over rated. That's what he will give you but he also could see his points rise once RNH comes of age and boosts the others around him as well. If you think Eberle is a 85+ pt guy then yes, you are probably over rating him.

As far as dealing him for Drouin, its really a big crap shoot. If Drouin comes out and hits 60+ pts in his rookie year and has a good chunk of PPP, which is entirely possible, then you may be hard pressed to trade for him at all (as we have seen with MacKinnon, who seems to go for ridiculous fantasy prices right now after only 1 year). If he comes out and drop 40-45pts, then you may still have a shot of getting him for Eberle.

The question is, are you a gambler? If yes, then I'd trade Eberle for him and wait for the fireworks. I think Drouin is going to be worth it. If you like to play it safe, stick with Eberle and you won't be disappointed either. You may kick yourself in a couple seasons, but you will still have a pretty darn good scorer in Eberle as well.