Toronto Blue Jays

[Axeman33]

Jays sked:

3 v BOS (have to win 2)
3 @ NYY (2)
3 @ TB (have to take 2)
3 v NYY (2)
3 v TB (2)

I would say they have to win 10/15 games to have a shot at WC3. Seattle and Texas play each other 7/16 times in the stretch run. Jays need one of them to go 6-1, meaning a little losing streak while Jays get on a small roll. But the way this team has been all season, I don't see them doing much if they get in anyways. White flag is appropriate.

Getting swept didnt officially put a nail in their coffin, but the carpenter is digging into his tool belt.

[2014olympicgold]

At a min, Toronto needs to expect a 10-5 stretch run puts them into position to get in. a 9-6 doesn't mean they're out, or 11-4 doesn't 100% put them in, but they gotta look at 10-5 as a good shot at being in.

[stevegamer]

No white flag for me. You're not eliminated until you are eliminated.

Playoffs are very random, and the lack of postseason performance is frustrating, but getting there is the first goal.

[Feenom]

Good start to the last 15 games. A sweep of BoSox is what they needed. And Texas is getting bit by the injury bug.

[2014olympicgold]

The universe is giving the Jays every opportunity possible to get into the playoffs. Holy.

[PenguinHunter]

The Wild Card Elimination # is 13.
This is the Seattle Wild Card Elimination number.
As Toronto and Texas currently hold the spot.

Toronto - 12 games remaining
Texas - 13 games remaining
Seattle - 13 games remaining

Side note - did you see that Tampa Bay completed an agreement to get a new stadium. This is probably exciting news for the MLB teams, owners and players.

[LawMan]

This team.... what a rollercoaster.
Played like garbage Saturday, tie it on a fluke/brutal defensive play... should have won it several times in extras, almost lost, pulled it off on a swinging bunt single... where Vladdy almost missed the plate!

Sunday... pitched really well until the final strike... damn it... NEVER MIND! a couple great pieces of hitting.
The out of town scoreboard being massively beneficial...

chart.png
This is FanGraphs chance to make Playoffs... Jays in dark blue.
August 18th - 57.2%
August 29th - 38.4%
September 14th - 33.6% (post swept by Rangers)
TODAY - 78.4%....

That is wild. It's going to be a tense final 12 games...

[PenguinHunter]

That is wild. It's going to be a tense final 12 games...

Yup, the playoffs have basically begun for Toronto.

Every series here on out needs to be a Toronto series win.

mathematically they do not fully control there fate.
As they have less remaining games then the elimination number.

So they have to win series and hope Seattle loses series.
And Seattle's current series is against Oakland.

[LawMan]

Yup, the playoffs have basically begun for Toronto.

Every series here on out needs to be a Toronto series win.

mathematically they do not fully control there fate.

.

The bolded seems incorrect?
Hairsplitting I suppose but... they are 1.5 games up on Seattle (who holds the tiebreaker over the Jays, so Jays needs to finish 1 Game up on Seattle to beat them). So if Seattle wins the game in hand, Jays would be 1 game up on Seattle.
Then, if Toronto wins all 12 GR and Seattle wins all 12 GR Jays would finish +1 on Seattle.

In any event seems like: an 8-4 record would be a solid lock for Jays, 7-5 probably does it, 6-6 would be iffy... Under .500 down the stretch and they will need a lot of help.

[2014olympicgold]

Here's the chart for the Magic Number:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/mlb/ame...icnumbers.html

[LawMan]

Here's the chart for the Magic Number:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/mlb/ame...icnumbers.html

Thanks!
I read this as:
Jays DNCD (Do Not Control Destiny) for 1-5 seeds (1-3 being Division Winners, Jays will NOT win Division obviously, 4-6 being WC) and their Magic Number for WC#3( seed #6) is 9. So a 9-3 would guarantee the Jays a playoff birth... and that number improves as teams chasing them lose.
Magic Number of 9 is actually lower than I thought... I assume due to to math of AL West all playing each other down the stretch.. that AL West Divisional Crown is going to be a nail biter.

[2014olympicgold]

Ya, the schedule of Houston/Texas/Seattle I think makes the number lower than initially thought.

Houston Schedule (MN7):
Orioles (3), Royals (3), Seattle (3), DBacks (3)

Toronto Schedule (MN9):
NYY (6), TBR (6)

Rangers Schedule (MN10):
Boston (3), Mariners (7), Angels (3)

Seattle Schedule (MN11):
Oakland (3), Texas (7), Houston (3)


Seattle and Rangers have an extra game to play.

[Godin]

Anyone that thinks the Blue Jays will make the playoffs, haven't been paying attention. The least bit of pressure and they crumble.

[2014olympicgold]

Houston and Texas lost yesterday. Yankees come into town behind the Jays by 6 games. They need this series more than the Jays and I hope the Jays understand that.

[2014olympicgold]

September 15th, our playoff odds were like 38%.
September 20th, Fangraphs has it at 82.9%