Toronto Blue Jays

[LawMan]

Saw this on Twitter for MLB Ranks

Starter ERA
Jays - 3rd
Orioles - 15th

Bullpen ERA
Jays - 4th
Orioles - 7th

Defense (DRS)
Jays - 1st
Orioles -6th

Home Runs
Jays - 15th
Os - 15th

On Base
Jays - 7th
Os - 17th

...................................drumroll....... ............

RISP OPS
Jays - 25th
Os - 3rd

That is a great breakdown that sort of perfectly describes the Jays season. Doing everything mostly right except in the key moments.
I love reviewing stats and analysis of same and "expected stats" etc. because they in theory show how a player/team should be doing...
Then when you compare expected to reality the main question is: Is this "clutch" or "good/bad luck"?
The perfect single frame of reference in yesterday's game was top of 2nd. Jays runners 1st and 3rd, no outs, Kiermaer hits a decently hard ball right to the 1st baseman's glove, great catch and tag to double off the runner... good contact on the hit, not terrible base running, a great glove and its 2 outs (ironically without a runner on 1st and the 1B deeper it probably gets through).. If it gets thru its a double scoring at least 1 run...

To a decent degree I have to wonder if the RISP OPS is just small sample size and largely luck based. I would love to know the Jays "expected OPS with RISP"

Here's an article about teams BA (not oPS) with RISP.
https://friarsonbase.com/posts/mlb-p...oring-position
The Rangers are at .329, that is absurdly high! next is Tampa at .287
That is almost concerning if you are a Rangers fan, can you really expect your team to hit .329 with RISP in the Playoffs ??
The Jays are 24th at .237. So add 30 points to get to .267 and suddenly they are tied for the Dodgers for 7th.. presumably have 5 or 6 more wins.

Anyways, I do not know how you "fix" the terrible RISP OPS. You have to review your approach to RISP ABs but perhaps you determine you're doing everything right and just having bad luck.
I've also read a few pieces that say Vlad Jr. is experiencing terrible luck this year, he is top-3 in "hard hit balls" and top-3 in actual OPS below "expected" - thus his hard hits keep getting caught.
To quote my favorite Kevin Costner character, Crash Davis:

"Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium.
-- Crash Davis

[2014olympicgold]

Jays have been bottom in extra base hits% (hits:EBH) and double plays hit into the last 2 seasons.

Jays hitting staff have for some reason, went away from the uppercut swings to focusing on making contact hard, and that's likely from the Jose, EE, Donaldson era failing at it and over correcting. Especially when the head of your organization came from Cleveland.

However, their best hitters were fast, and that's not Vlad. Since 2020, he has hit into the most double plays out of anyone in the league (70). For someone who is supposed to be an MVP candidate and 280-300avg guy that's awful.

Also...Vlad not even hitting 20HR yet...wow. Now his doubles are on tract (even higher) than his pervious yrs, but maybe the baseball and considerably colder summer in Toronto have held back home runs.

2021: 262HR (1.617HR/GP) 20.10C
2022: 200HR (1.235HR/GP) 20.05C
2023: 147HR (1.167HR/GP) 18.95C

Also, the Jays are walking more. Walking more (3.29bb/game), which means less AB, which means a ground out results in a higher effect on avg. They also aren't striking out, more balls in play, with more base runners, more DP.

I also think it's funny they did all this work onto making themselves better in the field, and their fielding% went from 0.986 last yr to 0.987 this yr. They have dropped the amount of errors this yr by a ton though.

Long story short, I don't think this is bad luck, I think it's a poor approach and it's the coaching staff. No way should Vlad crush the Homerun derby with a huge upper cut swing like he did, then go into hammering 100mph singles the next night. It's his swing, and the teams approach.

[2014olympicgold]

However, this team, if they can get into the playoffs....watch the freak out.

Jays pitching should be considered assassins out of the bullpen. Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi only need to go 5ip. Then you go into a BP of Richards, Romano, Garcia, Hicks, Swanson, Mayza to go 4ip between them (and maybe Green included in that).

You are dead meat if the Jays are up in the 6th inning.

Also, special shoutout to Varsho. Guy went to a toetap and has hit 297/366/960 since July 30th with a WRC+ that is the same as Acuna (161) during the same time.

[2014olympicgold]

Jays don't deserve a playoff spot.

[Axeman33]

Jays don't deserve a playoff spot.

Agreed!

A good friend of mine (who's a Yankees fan I should add) said yesterday to me that the Jays should trade Vladdy for a haul and try and get more depth. He also thinks Vladdy wont hit 30 HRs again. I told him he's crazy LOL!

[hockeyrobot]

Jays don't deserve a playoff spot.

What a frustrating year.

[2014olympicgold]

Agreed!

A good friend of mine (who's a Yankees fan I should add) said yesterday to me that the Jays should trade Vladdy for a haul and try and get more depth. He also thinks Vladdy wont hit 30 HRs again. I told him he's crazy LOL!

He's avg 29HR/162gp over the last 2yrs. I fully believe their coaching has screwed with his swing so much he lost all launch angle potential. If this continues, he won't reach 40HR/100RBI again with this coaching staff and roster build philosophy.

[PenguinHunter]

Did I see Bichette is injured again?

[2014olympicgold]

Did I see Bichette is injured again?

Quad tightness

Chapman also left with finger inflammation.

Swanson also goes on the IL with "thoracic spine inflammation"

[PenguinHunter]

Horrible time for the injuries to start mounting up!

[stevegamer]

The Jays at least have good depth.

[2014olympicgold]

That wasn't a clean game AT ALL by the Nats and it should have been a win by way more than 3.

[hockeyrobot]

Texas has to be the main target now and there is no way they're going to continue to be as bad as their last month has been.

[2014olympicgold]

Toronto is currently the lowest "realistic" odds at making the playoffs at 49.4% on Fangraphs. Toronto does have a favourable schedule in terms of SOS (0.488 or something), but it's being influenced by the Yankees free fall, and I can't say I'll expect wins those games. The Yankees will 100% bring it vs them.

They play Texas in Toronto in the middle of September, that match is going to be huge.

[PenguinHunter]

Donaldson was just released by the Yankess.

Do the Jays bring him in while Chapman is injured and for the playoff push?