Dark Horse 2014-15 Goalies

[2014olympicgold]

Just a quick article on who you guys think will be some nice dark horse goalies next year in a league that keeps 6, max 1 goalie. So the likes of Rask, Price, Varly, Quick, Lunquist, Schneider, Niemi would most likely be kept. A few names I can think of having a solid year for their draft position would be:

-Fleury (1^st round draft but still solid)
-Reimer (late round pick, but a starter I bet)
-Bernier (most likely start 60+ games)
-Khudobin (I bet he takes over the starting role)
-Kari Lethonen (he makes a lot of saves)

[Pengwin7]

Jimmy Howard should bounce back next year. Detroit can't possibly be as banged up and the experience their kids got in the NHL this year will be incredibly healthy. I'd expect them to return to being a top 10 NHL team.
Cory Schneider, yes. People may forget the time split with Brodeur this year, but Schneider should start 60+ next year.
Martin Brodeur - possibly. It depends where your league ranks him on the draft board... but he could very possibly sign as a back-up in Minnesota and emerge as the full year #1 goalie.
Bernier, yes... IF... IF... the Leafs can get a new coach that can COMPLETELY re-structure the way the TEAM attacks games and brings the shot totals under 30/game.

[2014olympicgold]

I can see Bernier being a solid mid-range draft goalie that you could pair up with an Elite goalie. The Elite goalie would help pull down the GAA, and if bernier duplicates for next yr, he’d actually raise most elite goalies S%. But I agree with the new coach, I’m a Leaf fan my whole life, and I have never hated a coach as much as I have hated Carlyle in his first full year. Players rather watch a streaker in a timeout than listen to him draw a play up during their 8 game slide.

I totally forgot about Howard, I was even trying to acquire him at our deadline because he usually finishes strong.

Now would you guys keep the following goalies? (I know it depends on your teams)
-Bishop
-Anderson
-Mike Smith
-Hiller
-Loungo
-Crawford

[Pengwin7]

You should list your starting roster spots in your SIG.
If you start 1G... then in a 12-team league, the only keepers should probably be: Rask, Lundqvist, Quick, maybe Price
If you start 2G... then in a 12-team league, the keepers get much larger to incl: Miller (if STL), Schneider, Crawford, Bishop, Fleury, Niemi, Bobrovsky, Varlamov, Lehtonen, Smith, Howard, Bernier, Hiller (if #1 NHL starter, should be)

Of your list:
1. Crawford (solid goalie on GREAT team)
2. Bishop (solid goalie on VERY GOOD team)
3. Smith (workhorse goalie, great in SV league)
...
4. Hiller (if ANA re-signs him. TBD if somebody else signs him.)
5. Luongo (good goalie, but BAD team)
...
6. Anderson (I don't trust him... I'm done with Anderson)


In a start-1G league, Crawford is a fringe keeper... the others are not.
In a start-2G league, all but Anderson are keepers, IMO... Luongo is a fringe keeper.

[2014olympicgold]

Start 2 goalies. Keep max 1 in a 12 team league.

It’s going to be interesting in my league because of the max 1 goalie keeper. Like one guy has Neimi, Howard, Smith, and Halak. So he will keep Neimi prolly, and Howard, Smith, and Halak will be able to redraft. One guy has Miller, and Hiller, so Miller or Hiller will be able to redraft. However one guy has Pavelec, Broduer, Poulin, and Nillson, so he won’t keep any goalies and keep 6 players.

My guess of goalie keepers:
Bishop, Neimi, Rask, Brobrovsky, Loungo, Schneider, Hiller/Miller, Rinne, Price, Varly/Lunquist, Quick, and one team won’t keep any

Crawford, Elliot, Hiller, Varly, Howard, Smith, Bernier, Reimer, Halak, Fleury, Ward, Lethonen, Holtby, Mason can all be redrafted I bet.

[Dobber]

In a start 2 G, I would keep all 6 of those goalies. You can't mess around with the G position. I'm leading for the third year in a row, keep 12 players, start 2 goalies. Last year I kept Smith/Anderson/Bobrovsky and I still drafted Bishop. This year I'm keeping Bishop/Smith/Anderson and I'll be drafting a fourth goalie.

If you have too many goalies in November, you can trade from a position of strength (as I did with trading Bobrovsky when I saw Bishop would be fine)

[Pengwin7]

In a start 2 G, I would keep all 6 of those goalies. You can't mess around with the G position. I'm leading for the third year in a row, keep 12 players, start 2 goalies. Last year I kept Smith/Anderson/Bobrovsky and I still drafted Bishop. This year I'm keeping Bishop/Smith/Anderson and I'll be drafting a fourth goalie.

If you have too many goalies in November, you can trade from a position of strength (as I did with trading Bobrovsky when I saw Bishop would be fine)

A few notes though:
1. Your pool is a "keep 12", so keeping 9 skaters & 3 goalies is a closer ratio to what I'd expect in most keeper groups. His is only a "keep six". 4 skaters/2 goalies vs. 3 skaters/3 goalies. Big difference, IMO.
If there was an initial draft in a "keep 6"... would all 12 teams really reach for 3 goalies in their first 6 picks??? I say nay-nay!
IMO, I'm not drafting a Craig Anderson if a guy like Max Pacioretty is on the board.

2. You mention "leading for the third year in a row" and also "still drafted Bishop". Worth noting that just about everybody that late-drafted Bishop is doing pretty well in their goaltending stats this year.
If a GM in a "Keep Six" had kept Smith/Bobrovsky (my preferred, even BEFORE This year started) and late-drafted Bishop, then he would have had a 4th skater in his keeper group... instead of only three.
Considering a 4th goalie is a "late draft", I'd say it is much more difficult to replace a "4th skater" (Max Pacioretty type) with an end-of-draft player.

Smith/Bobrovsky/Anderson/End-of-Draft-Forward
vs.
Smith/Bobrovsky/Bishop/Pacioretty

Which is a better looking 3G/1F?


I disagree with you here.
In a keep 6, especially in H2H, I think it is MUCH smarter to keep at LEAST four skaters... because they provide much more dependable statistics year-to-year.
And we are talking H2H, not Roto... don't know which your pool is... but BIG difference. (It's an assumption, but I don't see you as the "H2H" type... where those 3rd/4th goalies are extremely volatile and less valuable, IMO.)

[jcairns]

Pengwin7 hit the nail right on its head. Heck, even in a keep 14 not a single GM in our league is keeping 3 goalies. Outside the top 5-10 goalies, they are too much of a crapshoot year-over-year, and if your league is head to head their performance when it matters most is even more unpredictable.

[2014olympicgold]

Ramo could be added to the dark horse list next yr

[kovalchuk17]

Goalies that will may provide good draft value given their probable draft position:

Mike Smith - He's been great since the Olympics
Braden Holtby - He'll get his mojo back
John Gibson/Fredrik Andersen - they may split but their numbers should be good
Eddie Lack/Jakub Markstrom - they may split but Vancouver is still a good team so they should be good
Anton Khudobin - He's been good
Karri Ramo - His numbers are surprisingly good all things considered
Viktor Fasth/Ben Scrivens - Maybe Edmonton makes the leap