Realistic career ceiling of RNH?

[Big Ev]

Heatley's shoulder was also damaged in the crash. It was aggravated in 07.

[SeaDawg]

the other thing about the shoulder surgery is that RNH's shoulder will never be perfect...he will always have a bit of weakness in the shoulder and there is a good chance that even with the surgery, the injury may recur. In fact, up to now, it hasn't just been one injury that has lingered. He has injured the shoulder, had it heal, and then injured it again. He has had "recurring" shoulder injuries and even with surgery, his shoulder isn't guaranteed to be 100%. This will impact his strength, shooting ability, and his confidence in winning faceoffs and battling for pucks in the corners.

I'm not saying it isn't impossible for RNH to avoid future injuries (to his shoulder or otherwise), but I'm not being unrealistic to have some concerns.

[fungchen3]

Nathan MacKinnon 100-115
Taylor Hall 95-110 PTS
Nail Yakupov 90-95 PTS
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 80-85 PTS

I think all of these are way overboard minus RNH.

Crosby and Malkin have each hit the 110 mark ONCE. As great as players like Stamkos, Kane, Toews, Tavares, Giroux and Kopitar are, they have NEVER hit 100. There is no way Hall and MacKinnon are steady 95-100 point threats - 110 and 115 is completely out of the realm IMO, unless the game changes to artificially inflate scoring. I also don't see Yakupov being a 90-95 guy. 78-86 guy? I can be sold on that.

[grendel]

Wait.....I am sure I have heard this before.....

that was supposed to be a joke, glad you got it...the hype is ridiculous

RNH is made of paper, he'll be lucky to play 60 games a season...period. So maybe he has a career year of 70 pts?

[Seeds of Grapes]

Other hockey players with shoulder surgery for torn labrums:

Streit, Kesler, Gaborik, Okposo.

Gaborik is a band-aid boy, but the others are not. No reason to label RNH a bab at this stage of his young career.

90+ upside

[spoilers]

I think all of these are way overboard minus RNH.

Crosby and Malkin have each hit the 110 mark ONCE. As great as players like Stamkos, Kane, Toews, Tavares, Giroux and Kopitar are, they have NEVER hit 100. There is no way Hall and MacKinnon are steady 95-100 point threats - 110 and 115 is completely out of the realm IMO, unless the game changes to artificially inflate scoring. I also don't see Yakupov being a 90-95 guy. 78-86 guy? I can be sold on that.

You're right. Except the question was realistic career CEILING. Not steady numbers. And to have fun nitpicking, you could see Yak at 86 but not 90. Sort of splitting hairs at that point!

In a previous post on this thread I think I put Nuge at 70-85 average over his career. So I misread it as well, as for a realistic ceiling, maybe 90 if all goes well. The Oilers fan in me might lend to some wishful thinking as 90 point players are few and far between. I can see it happening once though, realistically. As his 'ceiling'

Hall 95 Ceiling. Yak 85 ceiling.
Average Nuge should be a PPG guy, Hall a hair more, Yak a hair less.

Of course it would be that cats ass if they all hit 100+, and I would be thrilled to be underestimating them, but you have to be realistic about these things.

[grendel]

so much hype! EVERYBODY is a 100-120 pt threat!

get a grip...it's not Gretzky and it's not the 80s

[spoilers]

so much hype! EVERYBODY is a 100-120 pt threat!

get a grip...it's not Gretzky and it's not the 80s

Ummm...who exactly are you talking to here?

[joeygmoney]

I love all the folks who call Nuge "injury prone". The kid isn't even old enough to drink in a bar in the US and people are already shunning him. Obviously the Oilers aren't worried about him and his "injuries" from the looks of the deal they just gave him.

To all you who consider Nuge "injury prone" and are afraid to own him, by all means trade him away. I have no doubt another GM in your league will be patient enough for him to mature and grow in the game. This kid is going to be the center on the top line on one of the better offensive teams for years to come.

So what do you call him unlucky? To hell with that, at this moment he is injury prone. Would I deal him away, no probably not if I owned him. But to say at this point in his career he is not injury prone is madness. Bergeron was injury prone too, you can shed the label if and when you stay healthy. Bergeron has and RNH could do it too but to claim at this point in his career RNH is not injury prone is laughable.

[ultrawhiteness]

injury prone? i see 1 injury that he tried to play through last year.

he's not exactly in Brassard territory here. if you think he will be, then fine, but admit to everyone you're playing a hunch.

he's a skinny kid but gotta remember he's playing at a solid 10 pounds over a what a guy like Patty Kane started at, so it's not like that is automatically a horrible thing. i'd rather that than concussions.

[DuklaNation]

He needs to learn to avoid contact more. I would look to trade him as I think he is too assist heavy.

[Axeman33]

So what do you call him unlucky? To hell with that, at this moment he is injury prone. Would I deal him away, no probably not if I owned him. But to say at this point in his career he is not injury prone is madness. Bergeron was injury prone too, you can shed the label if and when you stay healthy. Bergeron has and RNH could do it too but to claim at this point in his career RNH is not injury prone is laughable.

There's a reason we don't see many "ironmen" playing the game; its because everyone gets hurt. Nuge hasn't played long enough in the league to really acquire any type of label in my eyes other then skilled. Would I call him unlucky? No, I would call Taylor Hall unlucky. His injuries have simply been weird ones (falling awkward in a fight in year one, getting his head cut by a team mate during warmup). I would simply call him a hockey player.

In 4 years, Jamie Benn has played in ONE full season. Do you call him injury prone? No, he gets hurt.

James Neal has never played a full season in his 5 year NHL career without missing time. Do you call him injury prone??

Last season was the first year Evander Kane has made it through a full NHL season (albeit 48 games so take that for what it's worth). Again, is he considered injury prone?

Tyler Seguin, not one full NHL season yet. Injury prone??

Are you getting the point. It's too early in his career to label anyone "injury prone". Is he a skinny kid who needs to fill out? Sure, but the fact I was making in my original post in this thread by saying he isnt even old enough to get into a bar in the states simply means he has a lot of growing to do. He is still a kid, literally by NHL standards. Don't label him as anything until he has had a chance to really show us what he really is.

[Big Ev]

James Neal is definitely injury prone.

Seguin is not, he has played full seasons since entering the league.

[Axeman33]

James Neal is definitely injury prone.

Seguin is not, he has played full seasons since entering the league.

My apoligies, he played all 48 last year, his first "full" season.

[Big Ev]

My apoligies, he played all 48 last year, his first "full" season.

Really, you'rte not going to count 81 as full...

the previous year he was healthy scratched a bit. Not injuries.

Fact of the matter is, shoulder surgery at a young age is concerning. Do I think he can recover fine? Yes.