Realistic career ceiling of RNH?

[jcairns]

What is a realistic expectation of RNH to reach in his career, ideally a regular point total he should hit? The main reason I ask is when people offer me trades and bundle him in, I have a hard time valuing him. Within the next 5 years, what point total would you expect him to hit?

[kovalchuk17]

Point per game (75-85) but injury prone, heavier on assists.

[rataylor22]

assist heavy, consistent PPG, 100-point upside

EDIT: Unlike most of the forum members, I do not have an irrational fear for RNH's durability. Surgery isn't an issue today like it was 10 years ago, or even five years ago. The fact that his shoulder injury was one he has had since junior (same as Taylor Hall) makes the corrective surgery a good thing, provided he doesn't come back to early, which he won't. Keep in mind, there was never really a hit that hurt him, just an awkward and unlucky fall in to the boards. I honestly at this point in his career have no worries about his long-term durability and think he will play 82 for most of the seasons in his career.

[TunaSalad]

Agree with above poster. Point per game player. Heavy note on PER GAME. Imagine he'll only be good for 60ish games for most of his career.

[Axeman33]

I love all the folks who call Nuge "injury prone". The kid isn't even old enough to drink in a bar in the US and people are already shunning him. Obviously the Oilers aren't worried about him and his "injuries" from the looks of the deal they just gave him.

Imagine all the folks who traded away Patrice Bergeron a few years ago because he was "injury prone". Now he is one of the games premiere two way forwards and most wouldn't trade him away for anything less then a kings ransom.

To all you who consider Nuge "injury prone" and are afraid to own him, by all means trade him away. I have no doubt another GM in your league will be patient enough for him to mature and grow in the game. This kid is going to be the center on the top line on one of the better offensive teams for years to come.

[jcairns]

I love all the folks who call Nuge "injury prone". The kid isn't even old enough to drink in a bar in the US and people are already shunning him. Obviously the Oilers aren't worried about him and his "injuries" from the looks of the deal they just gave him.

Imagine all the folks who traded away Patrice Bergeron a few years ago because he was "injury prone". Now he is one of the games premiere two way forwards and most wouldn't trade him away for anything less then a kings ransom.

To all you who consider Nuge "injury prone" and are afraid to own him, by all means trade him away. I have no doubt another GM in your league will be patient enough for him to mature and grow in the game. This kid is going to be the center on the top line on one of the better offensive teams for years to come.

This is more what I was thinking too. I drafted him with confidence, and was able to wait until a relatively late round. Wasn't his surgery the same as Hall's, who has since come back looking great and durable? I could be wrong.

[grendel]

90 pts, don't forget how sick that team in going to be in 2-3 years

[ds760]

Point per game (75-85) but injury prone, heavier on assists.

This is about right. Until he plays at least 1 full season he's just to much of a risk. Look for 50-60 games a year IMO.

[rataylor22]

I love all the folks who call Nuge "injury prone". The kid isn't even old enough to drink in a bar in the US and people are already shunning him. Obviously the Oilers aren't worried about him and his "injuries" from the looks of the deal they just gave him.

Imagine all the folks who traded away Patrice Bergeron a few years ago because he was "injury prone". Now he is one of the games premiere two way forwards and most wouldn't trade him away for anything less then a kings ransom.

To all you who consider Nuge "injury prone" and are afraid to own him, by all means trade him away. I have no doubt another GM in your league will be patient enough for him to mature and grow in the game. This kid is going to be the center on the top line on one of the better offensive teams for years to come.

I can't rep you, so I'll just praise this comment. Here here. Managers who win their leagues think like this. Managers who are content finishing middle of the pack take O'Reilly over RNH because he's "safe". Bergeron is the perfect example.

[Big Ev]

Point per game (75-85) but injury prone, heavier on assists.

This is the realistic answer. No I do not trust him to stay healthy for 82 games with that frail body of his and his recent history.

[Big Ev]

I can't rep you, so I'll just praise this comment. Here here. Managers who win their leagues think like this. Managers who are content finishing middle of the pack take O'Reilly over RNH because he's "safe". Bergeron is the perfect example.

Not really the perfect example. Bergeron's injuries were concussions. once that is healed he's good to go. It's not something like a shoulder that can affect your game even once healed. Bergeron is also built and strong, RNH is a twig.

And Bergeron isn't even amazing for your standard fantasy leagues.

Nobody is taking Ryan O'Reilly over RNH long-term. Don't exaggerate.

[mister_mcgoo]

80-90 pts is probably where he tops out...and the injury hype with Nuge is on par with the pre-season Drouin hype. He's young and was rushed into the league before his body could catch up with his skill level. Give him a couple years to add some muscle and improve his overall conditioning for the NHL and I think he'll be fine

[ds760]

This is more what I was thinking too. I drafted him with confidence, and was able to wait until a relatively late round. Wasn't his surgery the same as Hall's, who has since come back looking great and durable? I could be wrong.

Physically you can't compare the two. One looks like a Mac truck while the other looks like a stick figure. I'll let you guess which is which.

[fungchen3]

Nugent-Hopkins has the talent to be an elite playmaker in the NHL with a ceiling of 93-95 points (think Patrick Kane). That said, I also feel like he will miss his share of time (hopefully not as much as Spezza has) so the 90-90+ years will be few and far between. The average year for him, at his peak, will be something like 79 points in 75GP.

[StuntMan12]

Nathan MacKinnon 100-115
Taylor Hall 95-110 PTS
Nail Yakupov 90-95 PTS
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 80-85 PTS