hossa

[acre315]

where is hossa going to sign next year ?

[Fergie]

Who ever has 7M$ to spend !

Definitely not the Pens unless he agrees on a pay cut. I\'ve heard rumors of Boston and Vancouver going for him. I also believe that his brother Marcel will sign with him, maybe even in Phoenix where Marcel played last season.

[angus]

There will be at least a dozen teams after him.

Vancouver is interesting if Demitra signs there. Same with the brother connection in Phoenix.

[repenttokyo]

boston would be great, i would love to see him play in person night after night.

[fzusher]

Teams in need of someone like Hossa and their current cap commitments (all one-way contracts + 2 way contracts of players who\'ve made the team last year), noting major UFAs/RFAs who need to be resigned to significant chunks of cap, or resigned to yet unknown cap hit:

existing cap hit / no. of contracts

Anaheim - 49.119 / 16 (Carter, Perry, Hiller; not counting Bergeron [team option]); could promote Perry to top line and Bobby Ryan to second line

Atlanta - 26.697 / 14 (shit happens ... )

Boston - 47.078 / 19 (Wideman, Mark Stuart; likely require Murray be traded)

Colorado - 28.1 / 12 (Forsberg, Sakic, Liles, Theodore, Wolski, Svatos; assumes Brunette is not resigned)

Columbus - 24.626 / 16 (Hainsey, Leclair)

Dallas - 43.764 / 14 (Brunnstrom, Ericsson, Daley, Norstrom, Barnes, Hagman; likely require Lehtinen be traded)

Florida - 37.533 / 17 (Olesz; assumes Zednik cannot return)

Minnesota - 33.783 / 12 (Bouchard; only if Gaborik tells them he won\'t resign next summer)

Montreal - 35.688 / 13 (AKostitsyn, Streit; would mean SKostitsyn is bumped to the 3rd line)

Devils - 41.752 / 17 (Pandolfo, Salvador; if Gionta or Langenbrunner is traded)

Islanders - 34.574 / 16 (Fedotenko, Gervais)

Rangers - 33.308 / 14 (Straka, Jagr, Avery, Shanahan, Roszival, Mara, Dawes; obviously assumes Shanny or Jagr aren\'t resigned)

Ottawa - 40.417 / 13 (Kelly, Redden, Commodore, Vermette; assumes Stillman is not resigned)

Phoenix - 33.879 / 15 (Carcillo; only if Vrbata is not resigned)

Pittsburgh - 34.225 / 13 (Malone, Dupuis, Orpik, Eaton, Fleury)

St. Louis - 42.495 / 16 (Rucinsky, Backes)

Tampa - 37.352 / 17 (Artyukhin, Gratton, Craig)

Toronto - 42.243 / 20 (Sundin, Wellwood, Stajan)

Vancouver - 36.483 / 15 (Naslund, Morrison)

Washington - 37.35 / 14 (Huet, Green, Morrison, Eminger)

Of these 20 I would personally rule out ANA (cap), ATL (he won\'t come back), Dallas (cap), Florida (not really the direction they seem to be going in), Islanders (crazy team), Ottawa (cap). Also, self-imposed spending limits would rule out, I think, St. Louis and Washington. Of the 12 remaining teams, Minny and the Devils would be in the sweepstakes only if they decide or are forced to give up on current players, Tampa is 50-50 as it depends on its new owner\'s self-imposed spending limit, and Pittsburgh is 50-50 depending on how much cap for next year and the year after is eaten up by extensions to other players.

That leaves 8 teams: Boston, Colorado, Columbus, Montreal, Rangers, Phoenix, Toronto, Vancouver. A bidding war would, I think immediately rule out Montreal and Phoenix simply because they have good options in the system and thus aren\'t that desperate. Also, if a bidding war is to open, Boston will have to move Murray to afford Hossa, and that won\'t be easy. Toronto, who I believe will ditch salary over the summer, will be in the position to outbid anyone and will do it because they will want credibility with their fans. But I don\'t think Hossa will want to go into another rebuilding situation. Columbus also does not enjoy a good impression among UFAs, justly or not. That, plus the fact that their main focus will still be a center, eliminates them in my mind. That leaves Colorado, Rangers, and Vancouver as front runners. I think Hossa will want to sign for a team that\'s a proven consistent contender, and that gives the edge to Colorado and the Rangers. Rangers already have hefty salaries, and will need LWs as well. And they may prefer to go with Jagr for one more season while Cherepanov acclimatizes to the North American game.

So, personally, and I know this is somewhat out of left field, I am betting on Colorado. They want to contend now. Does this look like a contender to you:

Forsberg-Sakic-Hossa
Smyth-Stastny-Hejduk
Wolski-Arnason-Svatos
McLeod-McCormick-Marcel Hossa
David Jones-Hensick first injury call ups

[The Comish]

fzusher wrote:

Toronto, who I believe will ditch salary over the summer, will be in the position to outbid anyone and will do it because they will want credibility with their fans.

You had me right up until this part! Nobody in the Leafs ownership/management has cared about credibility with their fans for the last 40 yearshmy:

I really think Hossa would fit in well with Boston. Hossa is defensively responsible and the Bruins absolutely need another offensive presence in their line-up.

The Rangers would not hesitate to replace Jagr with Hossa. Cherapanov is Russian and Jagr is Czech - those two nations have a big hate on for each other - something to do with 1967 or something?:S

Seriously though, an impressive amount of research/work went into your post, it was a good read fzusher.

[MXHockey]

Fantastic piece of work fzusher!!!

Colorado is a definite possibility - depending on what kind of discount Sakic and Forsberg are willing to play for, assuming they both play next season.

[Fergie]

fzusher wrote:

Atlanta - 26.697 / 14 (shit happens ... )

How about a comeback to Ottawa ? There were rumors about a comeback, but the Sens went to Carolina instead.

Once Ottawa figures its #1 goalie. Redden is gone, Stillman too. Hossa could comeback with the Sens, he did say he liked playing there.

Excellent post again fzusher.

[Khanadian]

Yup, good job fzusher. +1 for you!

[fzusher]

The Comish wrote:

fzusher wrote:

Toronto, who I believe will ditch salary over the summer, will be in the position to outbid anyone and will do it because they will want credibility with their fans.

You had me right up until this part! Nobody in the Leafs ownership/management has cared about credibility with their fans for the last 40 yearshmy:

I really think Hossa would fit in well with Boston. Hossa is defensively responsible and the Bruins absolutely need another offensive presence in their line-up.

The Rangers would not hesitate to replace Jagr with Hossa. Cherapanov is Russian and Jagr is Czech - those two nations have a big hate on for each other - something to do with 1967 or something?:S

Seriously though, an impressive amount of research/work went into your post, it was a good read fzusher.

MLSE took Raptors fans for granted, until fan discontent showed in the attendance; then they went out and invested in a top manager. I honestly think they are sensing Leafs fans are heading in the same direction, and will really want to preempt that in their flagship.

Rangers need to make a strategic decision whether or not to finally lay the Czech experiment to rest. If they do, they will need a marquee acquisition to take Jagr\'s place in the spotlight (Drury and Gomez are already there, so they don\'t have that Manhattan buzz-creating shine to them; they\'re old news).

and don\'t start me on the Soviet military exploits; I was born in Lithuania

[fzusher]

fergie26 wrote:

fzusher wrote:

Atlanta - 26.697 / 14 (shit happens ... )

How about a comeback to Ottawa ? There were rumors about a comeback, but the Sens went to Carolina instead.

Once Ottawa figures its #1 goalie. Redden is gone, Stillman too. Hossa could comeback with the Sens, he did say he liked playing there.

Excellent post again fzusher.

They don\'t have the cap. 40.417 tied up in 13 players. If Hossa commands 7M and the cap is 55 that leaves them 7.5M for 12 players. If you do 11 of those at minimum salary, you\'ve got room for one player at 2M. That means only one of Vermette, Kelly or Meszaros. Getting rid of Emery doesn\'t solve the problem because they\'d still need to replace him with another goalie, and no legitimate starter at Emery money is available (except maybe Legace; very maybe). They\'ll have to get a ~1M 1B instead - Lalime was mentioned recently. The extra cap space would allow one extra player of the aforementioned 3. You\'re still looking at a lot of youth / pluggers. The only realistic way they can pull off a Hossa signing is if they trade one of the top-line guys for a top goalie. And Heatley\'s got a NTC kicking in July 1st.

And Boston, BTW, will only have the cap room for Hossa if they move Murray, who\'s not gonna be easy to move (though, entering the last year of his contract, not impossible either).

I also need to cool off a bit on the Colorado idea. I did the math on estiated cap numbers for resigned players and while it\'s doable for them, it\'d require a gamble on D - to have the lines I suggested, they\'d need to move Salei or Clark so as to make cap room to get a goalie. That means gambling on Sauer and Leopold to stay healthy clocking top-4 minutes with Hannan and Clark/Salei, with Cumiskey and Finger as the 3rd pairing (assuming Sauer and Finger are resigned). I still see Colorado as a scenario that makes much sense - they can compete now, but Hossa\'s also at an age where he can be signed long term and help transition the team to its younger generation, a transition that\'ll have to happen in 2010 at the latest - but it\'s a bit borderline; it\'ll become clearer once they start resigning people. If they can get Finger and Sauer at under 1.25M, Svatos and Wolski at under 2.5M, Forsberg at under 5M, and Sakic at under 6M, they might pull it off.