Tiering starters based on GAA expectations

[kbro]

Hey, not sure if there's a similar thread already or not, but my league is focused on multiple categories (league in sig - W, GAA, SV%, SO). I've been trying to put together some GAA expectations for the #1 goaltenders around the league.

It's hard to rank players, but there do seem to be some separations between tiers of goalies.

Tier 1:
- Quick
- Lundqvist
- Rask

Tier 2:
- Rinne
- Fleury (decent GAA the last couple years and I expect a bit of a bounce back)
- Niemi (maybe tier 1, but with the Sharks' collective age and Vancouver in the division I'm not sure)
- Holtby
- Howard (maybe tier 1, but moving to the higher scoring east I'm hedging my bet)
- Crawford
- Bobrovsky
- Halak
- Anderson
- Luongo

Tier 3:
- Schneider (higher scoring east, no longer has Vancouver's weak division rivals & strong blueline)
- Price
- Bernier (great in LA but a small sample size, not 100% sold on pegging him higher yet)
- Smith
- Thomas (Florida is a much different team than Boston, he's older, and took a year off)
- Lehtonen
- Emery
- Dubnyk
- Hiller
- Backstrom

Tier 4:
- Ward
- Miller
- Nabokov
- Varlamov
- Pavelec
- Bishop
- Ramo

Thoughts? Any promotions/demotions you feel should be made? Again, this is strictly based on GAA.

[Shoeless]

Yeah I think you need to show the GAA ranges you came up with to make this list.

[kbro]

Yeah I think you need to show the GAA ranges you came up with to make this list.

Yeah, I deliberately tried to avoid doing that because there are so many variables that affect a player's GAA, because the middle is so tight, etc.

[Shoeless]

Well okay, play that game.

Here are a few I would change based on GAA alone - Rinne to tier 2, Schneider and Bernier to tier 1, Thomas to tier 2, I don't see Fasth there but he is borderline Tier 1.

[jcairns]

No idea how niemi and Howard are in tier 2... They should be tier 1. Also, rinne has no reason to be in tier 1 in my opinion.

[LawMan]

If we're focusing on GAA I quite like these tiers. The only glaring error to me is MAF at the top of tier-2. MAF's value comes from his wins on the Penguins, he has never had an exceptional GAA and the Penguins will get him wins but lots of the 5-3 variety.

Other tinkerings I'd make:
Schneider to tier 2
Bernier to tier 2
Rinne to the very top of tier-2. Rinne is the anti-MAF his team will get him fewer wins but a damn good GAA to go along with it. He'll lose a bunch of games 2-1.

[kbro]

Well okay, play that game.

Here are a few I would change based on GAA alone - Rinne to tier 2, Schneider and Bernier to tier 1, Thomas to tier 2, I don't see Fasth there but he is borderline Tier 1.

I think you're right about demoting Rinne. I think I'm overvaluing based on the Predators of old. He did show improvement after a rough start last year though. But I agree, I'll move him to tier 2.

I don't think Schnieder and Bernier are ready to be placed in tier 1 though. Both have moved to weaker teams with higher scoring division rivals, have added pressure, and have a relatively small sample size as far as performance goes. Could they finish in tier 1? Sure. But I'm not comfortably certain that they'll be there. I'm tempering my expectations for now.

Same goes for Thomas. He went from the best team in the NHL to the worst. He also took a year off. He has also had stretches of below superhuman play, even with the best team in the NHL in front of him. He's another guy that could very well put up excellent percentages, but I'm not willing to bet on it.

I omitted guys like Fasth and Elliott because I'm only focusing on likely #1 guys for now. There are other guys that would rank reasonably well in this list (Harding, Biron, Lehner, Greiss, Vokoun, possibly Mrazek, etc.)

No idea how niemi and Howard are in tier 2... They should be tier 1. Also, rinne has no reason to be in tier 1 in my opinion.

I think Howard will face higher scoring opposition more often in the East. He could be in tier 1, but I think he'll be one of the leaders in tier 2 instead. I see Lundqvist and Quick having an edge on him. I also feel like the Sharks are a year older. He could be up there, but he also might not be.

If we're focusing on GAA I quite like these tiers. The only glaring error to me is MAF at the top of tier-2. MAF's value comes from his wins on the Penguins, he has never had an exceptional GAA and the Penguins will get him wins but lots of the 5-3 variety.

Other tinkerings I'd make:
Schneider to tier 2
Bernier to tier 2
Rinne to the very top of tier-2. Rinne is the anti-MAF his team will get him fewer wins but a damn good GAA to go along with it. He'll lose a bunch of games 2-1.

Thanks! Try to ignore top/bottom of tiers. I don't think Fleury is going to have a better GAA than everyone in his tier, but I think he'll be in the same neighbourhood as most of those guys. His GAA hasn't been bad the last few years though... I think we'll see more 5-2 wins than 5-3 wins. But time will tell.

[kbro]

You really didn't want a discussion, you just wanted to tell. What a waste of time.

Haha, what? I thought I did discuss it. I even moved my Rinne pick. Did you not see my response? What reasoning do you have for promoting Schnieder & Bernier & Thomas so much? I'd be happy to discuss further. I might even warm up to promoting them if I see the logic and agree with it.

Sorry if I wasted your time. Those moments are gone forever, too. Dang.

EDIT: oh - looks like your response was deleted.

[kbro]

Any more thoughts on who should maybe be higher or lower, and why?