Target: Lehtonen

[Jester]

Good day fine people of Dobber Nation.
Team in sig.

I have picks 4, 15, 22 and 32 in our upcoming draft.
I traded 9th overall and Hedman to move up in an attempt to grab Jones at #4. Failing that, I'll take Barkov and run to the bank.

My question is; with which pick should I use to grab Lehtonen?

He is far and above any other goalie available and I know he'll be a target of other GMs.
I was thinking 22 and use 15 to grab BPA(likely a Dman), But knowing I could really use another Goalie can I afford to wait that long?

I lost Elliot in our expansion draft. This was before the Bernier trade, of course.

Would love to hear your thoughts

[als_revenge]

In a league with daily changes, you have the Leafs starting goalie, and Rinne. That's not too shabby.

What I can't tell is how many keepers you are allowed at the end of each year. Nor do I know if you think you can win this year.

If you pick Jones at 4th, I'm not sure I'd go with another D at 15 and then Lehtonen at 22?

[Jester]

29 keepers, all listed.
Sorry, I meant to say if I get Jones, then just BPA at 15. If I take Barkov, then I'll take a D at 15.

Unless you guys sway me to take Lehtonen at 15.

I'd like to think I can win every year.

[als_revenge]

I traded 9th overall and Hedman to move up in an attempt to grab Jones at #4. Failing that, I'll take Barkov and run to the bank.

I'm not sure about that strategy at all. Hedman is predicted to get about the same amount of points this year, and the hits / blocked shots will pretty much be a wash. You are banking on Jones getting 1st line minutes and top PP as an 18 year old, which may or may not happen with Josi there. Hedman is so much more developed. So why trade him and the 9th pick overall, and pick Jones, if you want to win this year?

That trade only makes sense to me if you are thinking for the future.

And what makes you think that Barkov won't be gone at the 3rd spot, along with Drouin and MacKinnon?

[Jester]

I'm not sure about that strategy at all. Hedman is predicted to get about the same amount of points this year, and the hits / blocked shots will pretty much be a wash. You are banking on Jones getting 1st line minutes and top PP as an 18 year old, which may or may not happen with Josi there. Hedman is so much more developed. So why trade him and the 9th pick overall, and pick Jones, if you want to win this year?

That trade only makes sense to me if you are thinking for the future.

And what makes you think that Barkov won't be gone at the 3rd spot, along with Drouin and MacKinnon?

I fully expect Barkov to be gone @3. That's why I intend to grab Jones in the 4 spot.

I do get what you're saying in the trade I made. I was just getting tired of waiting for Hedman to put up the points I was hoping for. Not to mention Tampa not really in the playoff picture. Not that Nashville is any closer.
IMO Jones' ceiling is higher.

[Daydream Nation]

How many players can you keep?

I would think Lehtonen goes higher than 15. I would take a goalie who is better-than-average over a top 10 prospect.

[JHM]

35 wins + 6 SO = 100 points...

I may be nuts, but I think Lehtonen is due a career year...

Lehtonen is crazy disrespected in Fantasy. You never see him ranked above about 15th and often as low as 22nd or 24th. I for one don't get it.

Okay. He's a 'Band Aid Boy'. Well he played 36 games last winter (61 game pace). He played 59 games in 2011-12. He played 69 games in 2010-11. Dallas seems to have gotten a finger on some of the stresses that he suffers from. So, fair to call him a 60 game goalie?

Wins over the last three years: 15, 32, 34
Save percentage: .916, .921, .914 - so wonder for a career year that is .921 or better?

He's 30 this year, right in the prime for a tender.

When he has his career year, he'll suddenly be valued in the range of 10th. I believe talent wise he's clearly in the top 10 in the NHL.

Dallas... what is their direction? Will Gonchar, Seguin, Cole, Horcoff, Peverley, Nichushkin move them forward? Could Dan Ellis play 20 games?

I'll suggest that Lehtonen has the potential to be quite valuable by the end of 2013-14. He has the potential to be a 100 point player in your scoring format. Don't be thinking he'll lie around until the 22nd pick. You'll be lucky to get your fingers on him at 15th.

[Shoeless]

I think Lehtonen is very much the most valuable player in the draft that will be available at pick #4. However you need to consider game conflicts this season to appreciate how many additional starts you will get in goal by picking him up. Safely, according to the same night tool, you might see 28 more starts which would translate into about 30 points.

So with that in mind I would definitely wait until pick #15 to take him and hope he is still available - I doubt it, but you aren't losing alot of production by missing him. What I think you will miss is his trade value in this league.

[Jester]

Wow, JHM. Very thoughtfull. Your input is greatly appreciated.

Shoeless, thanks for your response. With the - sure to be game conflicts you mentioned - I'm sure I'll miss out on a few of the 100 points projected by JHM, but I can live with that if I do indeed grab him with my pick at 15.

Thanks to all that responded.