Torn on who to pick first overall - REP

[Meniac]

I'll make this short and simple. I'm in a 6-team league and currently have 4 keepers (see sig). My pool counts G and A only so defencemen (aside from Karlsson and Letang) and goalies usually aren't kept or picked very high.

Considering the above and that I have 4 forwards already as my keepers, who would you take first overall from this list:

Neal
Subban
St. Louis
Zetterberg
Kunitz
Datsyuk
Suter
Thornton
Nash
Duchene
Spezza

I was leaning towards Neal at the end of last season, but I'm not sure if I want both Malkin and him on my team. I'd rather minimize the risk. Also, keep in mind that I would prefer someone who I may potentially keep in favour of one of my existing keepers at the end of the year.

Thanks in advance!

[JHouly]

Duchene or Subban for me...

[newfcollins]

Duchene or Neal would be my top choices.

[mcarmody]

I'd go with Duchene. If he goes off this year there is a chance you keep him over Seguin/Kopitar. I'd put Neal, Spezza and Nash not far behind. What's the risk of owning Neal and Malkin? Like if the team bus goes off a cliff?

[squirrel]

Even though you only count G & A, you still start 4 D. To me, that makes it Subban. In such a shallow league, the drop off from the top dmen to the next tier is usually 20pts (if Subban is a 60pt dman, the next tier of dmen will collect around 40 pts). With forwards (especially centres), the drop off is usually no more than 10 pts between tiers. And in such a shallow league, you won't be dropping more than 1 tier, except at the wing position.

Personally, the only other player i'd consider is Duchene. However, that comes down to whether you believe that he'll reach his full potential, and secondly, if he'll ever replace Kopitar or Backstrom as a keeper. For me, he'll never replace Backstrom. And since there are such a large number of centres (you only play 18) available, i actually wouldnt keep Kopitar either. I'd prefer Subban over Kopitar.

Last thing to note is this will likely be Seguin's last year of eligibility at wing, as he's moving back to centre in Dallas. You will need a new winger keeper next year - though my guess is you'll be able to draft Neal, or Nash in the second round. They could be keepers depending on what they do this year.

[rataylor22]

Personally I would rank them

Duchene/Subban
Datsyuk/Spezza
Neal
Zetterberg

And the rest honestly don't matter. I would personally lean to Subban, but I also love Duchene. Duchene can out up 85 points next year, Subban could match Letang/Karlsson. I lean Subban just because that style of defenceman is near irreplaceable in fantasy.

Datsyuk and Spezza should be a solid bet for 80/PPG numbers, but they are older and injury risks and are unlikely to replace any of your keepers.

Neal will put up PPG numbers as long as Malkin is healthy, and I would have no issue owning both, I just prefer point drivers. Meaning, Neal will get his points and can keep up with Malkin, but the four above will get their points regardless of who they play with. They don't rely on their line,ates to produce.

Zetterberg could have a crazy year because he will play with Datsyuk all season, but IMO he has the lowest upside and definitely won't be replacing any of your 4 by the end of the year.

[DerekReese]

I would pick Neal. He had a bit of a bad season last year but with a healthy Malkin I can see him hit 45 goals and 40 assists.

I would rank them as:

Neal
Subban
Duchene
Datsyuk
Kunitz
Zetterberg
Spezza
Nash
Suter
Thornton

[newfcollins]

Datsyuk and Spezza should be a solid bet for 80/PPG numbers, but they are older and injury risks and are unlikely to replace any of your keepers.

I don't know. Datsyuk hasn't had an 80-point season in five years (yes, I'm aware of his point-per-game pace last year). I think he's the least likely guy to get 80 points out of the forwards on the original list.

[Meniac]

Thanks for the feedback so far guys. REPs coming.

It sounds like its the same 3 guys I was debating on who are the favorites.

With Neal, I don't like how he's dependent on Malkins health and he's still coming off a concussion of his own, but I do like how the Penguins are a powerhouse and he'll generate points when everyone is healthy.

For Subban, I can see Squirrels point. There just aren't enough high scoring defencemen out there. The downside is that I find defencemen to be the hardest to predict when it comes to points. It seems like none, aside from those mentioned earlier, have consistent seasons from one year to the next. They always seem to drop off after having a big year like Subban did. Am I wrong about him?

For Duchene, the kid had a breakout year last year and he's playing with lots of young talent in Colorado, but the team now has a new coach, new system and the addition of McKinnon doesn't help Duchene IMO. If Sacco was still the coach and McKinnon wasn't around then picking Duchene would be a lot easier. Could I be wrong about this? Does Roy benefit Duchene?

[Mattp913]

I would go with Neal or Subban

[finnys_fanatsy]

i take Subban. in a 6 team league some of those fwds will be there in the second round, doubt i can say the same about a top tier d-man.

[JHM]

A winger. It's much easier to fill up later at centre.

[TheZamboniGuy]

Subban
Neal
Duchene
Spezza/Kunitz
Datsyuk/Zetty/Nash

Good luck !

[3rtpaper]

Duchene, Spezza and then Subban for me.

Subban is very enticing to me because he represents a potentially huge upgrade vs other defensemen that are avaliable - but I just don't see him repeating those number.

Previous 2 years he sad slightly below 40 points - I grant you he is better than a 40 point defenseman - but he was on pace for 74 points last year with 50 PPP. He will be extremely hard pressed to match his power play production. 30 is more likely and I will even throw another 5 even strength points his way which would put him at 59 points. Still a large upgrade over other defensemen but Duchene is a potential keeper forward and Spezza (if healthy) can also put up monster numbers.

[Meniac]

I forgot one big fish (or small one because of his size)... Marty St. Louis! OOPS!

I know he's getting old, but the guy is still a fantasy stud and is as consistent as they get. Hes still good for 80-90pts I'd say. Do I pick him instead of Subban or Duchene?