Salary cap woes! Team analysis needed

[bernjean]

Hello Dobber community!

I am part of a salary cap full keeper league. There are 15 teams. Due to the new cap restraints, I need to drop a good portion of my team.

So, I find myself in the position to do a small rebuild (in the 4 years of our pool, I have finished 4th, 5th, 2nd last and 6th). No progression overall.

Here is my current roster with the cap hits :

Centers
Backstrom, Nicklas C - WAS - 6,700,000 - 2019-2020
Johansen, Ryan C,RW - CBJ - 1,945,000 - 2013-2014
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan C - EDM - 3,775,000 - 2013-2014
Soderberg, Carl (R) C - BOS - 1,008,333 - 2014-2015
Staal, Jordan C - CAR - 6,000,000 - 2022-2023

Left Wings
Bourque, Rene LW,RW - MON - 3,333,333 - 2015-2016
Dorsett, Derek C,LW,RW - NYR - 1,633,333 - 2014-2015
Pacioretty, Max LW - MON - 4,500,000 - 2018-2019
Zetterberg, Henrik C,LW - DET - 6,083,333 - 2020-2021

Right Wings
Boedker, Mikkel LW,RW - PHO - UNSIGNED
Okposo, Kyle RW - NYI - 2,800,000 - 2015-2016
Perron, David LW,RW - EDM - 3,812,500 - 2015-2016
Semin, Alexander LW,RW - CAR - 7,000,000 - 2017-2018

Defensmen
Bogosian, Zach D - WPG - 5,142,857 - 2019-2020
Doughty, Drew D - LA - 7,000,000 - 2018-2019
Fowler, Cam D - ANA - 4,000,000 - 2017-2018
Green, Mike D - WAS - 6,083,333 - 2014-2015
Streit, Mark D - PHI - 5,250,000 - 2016-2017
Taormina, Matt D - TB - 650,000 - 2013-2014
Weaver, Mike D - FLA - 1,100,000 - 2013-2014

Goalies
Rask, Tuukka G - BOS - 7,000,000 - 2020-2021
Markstrom, Jacob G - FLA - 1,200,000 - 2014-2015

I have bolded the players I'm thinking of keeping.

During the offseason, I have traded Cam Ward to a team desperately needing a goaltender. I received his 1st (2nd overall) and Kyle Palmieri in exchange.

I also traded last year for another GM's 1st, who I tought would finish in the bottom of the rankings. So I also have the 4th overall draft pick.

Those are 2013 draft players. So I will most likely have 2 of Drouin, Mackinnon, Barkov and Jones.

On my farm team, I have Galchenyuk, Kuznetsov, Zibanejad, Dillon, B. Smith, Barrie and a couple more. So I am looking at a nice core for the future.

However, this year, I don't see any chance of winning it. I have too many high salaries with some not producing as high as they should (I'm looking at you, Doughty) and Markstrom has too many question marks.

Since every team has to shed salary, there is almost no way to trade big salaries for prospects or lower paid players.

So, I'm thinking of keeping the core, hoping that the cap goes up, and by the time that happens (most likely within 2-3 years) that my core will have developped and are ready to take it to the next level.

I have already sent an offer of Bogosian for Skinner straight up. I have too much salary in my Dmen and I'm hoping for a nice comeback for Skinner.

What do you think of this assessment?
Any mistakes in the players kept?
Anything I should look into with the new players to add?

Roughtly, this year, my roster could look like this :
Centers
Backstrom, Nicklas C - WAS - 6,700,000 - 2019-2020
Johansen, Ryan C,RW - CBJ - 1,945,000 - 2013-2014
Zibanejad, Mika C,LW,RW - OTT - 1,744,167 - 2014-2015
Insert low salary option here!

Left Wings
Zetterberg, Henrik C,LW - DET - 6,083,333 - 2020-2021
Pacioretty, Max LW - MON - 4,500,000 - 2018-2019
Perron, David LW,RW - EDM - 3,812,500 - 2015-2016
Calvert, Matt LW - CBJ - 987,500 - 2014-2015

Right Wing
Palmieri, Kyle C,RW - ANA - 1,466,667 - 2015-2016
Insert low salary option here or Skinner if traded for Bogosian!
Insert low salary option here!

Defensmen
Bogosian, Zach D - WPG - 5,142,857 - 2019-2020
Doughty, Drew D - LA - 7,000,000 - 2018-2019
Fowler, Cam D - ANA - 4,000,000 - 2017-2018
Green, Mike D - WAS - 6,083,333 - 2014-2015
Dillon, Brenden D - DAL - 900,000 - 2013-2014
Barrie, Tyson D - COL - 900,000 - 2013-2014
Weaver, Mike D - FLA - 1,100,000 2013-2014

Goalies
Rask, Tuukka G - BOS - 7,000,000 - 2020-2021
Markstrom, Jacob G - FLA - 1,200,000 - 2014-2015

If you have made it this far into my post, thanks!
Looking forward to your counseling!

[mister_mcgoo]

hmm just a thought but Mike Green has only played 116 games in the last 3 seasons and scored just 57 pts in that same period, is that worth 6+ million to you?

[bernjean]

Last year, with 35 games played, Green finished higher than both Jordan Staal and Mark Streit who played 48 games. He was my 6th skater overall, according to Fantrax.

He averages 3 SOG per game and last year, 26 pts in 35 games, while doing a good amount of hits and Blocked Shots.

Dobber seems pretty confident in his return to form when looking at his points prediction and sleeper status. If he gets injured, I can stash him on my IR and replace him with someone of similar value / salary.

I do agree that he is a risk. However, I feel like I can wait it out 1 more year before parting ways with him.

But I see your point and if he had any value, I'd try to shop him for sure. Any suggestions as to what to do?

[VincentVega]

You have a lot d-men who are not going to be bringing good value: Fowler, Bogosian and Doughty. In a cap league, it's usually best not to have too many (any) players who are much better in real life than fantasy. I like of offer for Skinner. See what you can get for the others.

[BlackGold]

I have to agree with what has been said here. Your D-group is bringing you poor returns for the dollar.

I would keep Green though, the upside is too high and more so than previous year this could be where he makes a solid come back.

At this point I think I would rather hang onto Semin than Fowler and Bogosian.

You're going to have some amazing assets in Gally, Drouin, Mack, Barkov.. so I'd be looking to make some sort of package up upgrade Fowler, Doughty, Bogosian into a solid fantasy/dollar producer.

[bernjean]

Thanks all for the replies! It's crazy what a couple of years can do to a player's fantasy value. Doughty was gold when I first acquired him.

A coaching change and an hefty contract later, he's not worth it anymore.

I compared Streit and Doughty in the HPG trade analyser and they are both equal...! But Streit comes at almost 2M$ less.

I guess I am blinded by my mancrush on Doughty.

[agoodburn]

I think you need to do the skinner deal for Bogosian and cut Okposo, and one of doughty and green.

[newfcollins]

I wouldn't worry too much about getting points from your dmen. Dmen who gets points are overpaid. You may be better getting rid of some of those guys and replacing them with guys who block shots and hit instead.

Smid was sixth in blocked shots overall and third amongst dmen in hits last season. If the Oilers overall improve, his plus/minus should be better as well (only a minus-one last season). And his cap hit is only $3.5 million. He could be a much better option than someone like Doughty.

[bernjean]

The Bogosian for Skinner fell through. The other GM changed his mind.

Now, I am talking with another GM to swap Doughty for Datsyuk.
Datsyuk has similar value when I compare him on the HPG tool, and similar salary also. Opinions?

Sadly, Smid is taken and probably not on the block. But I could see if there is interest from the other GM.

[ericdaoust]

I agree that the D is the problem here but I would also worry about Semin and his ability to shit the bed along with his high price tag.

[Pengwin7]

In multi-cat salary leagues, defenseman should be mostly bargain-bin or STUD multi-cat (Karlsson, PK, Chara/Buff/Letang/Weber).

I would look to trade Doughty & Green. Take whatever you can get.
I would straight drop Bogo & Fowler. I don't think they are worth their salary.

I would keep Brendan Dillon and look to roster more like him.
THAT is the kind of team of player you should build your defense around.

Use majority of your money for forwards.
Defense should be pennies.

My own personal salary cap team is 9-cat (G,A,+-,PPP,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FOW).

Here is my roster ($89.3m cap):
Centres (3):
5.000 Benn, Jamie "A"
4.900 Weiss, Stephen
4.750 Backes, David "C"

Left Wingers (3):
9.000 Ovechkin, Alexander
4.600 Eriksson, Loui "A"
4.000 Marchand, Brad

Right Wingers (3):
4.000 Parenteau, P.A.
3.000 Vrbata, Radim
2.000 Neil, Chris

+Forwards (5):
3.750 Vermette, Antoine
3.200 Ott, Steve
2.750 Hanzal, Martin
1.500 *Eller, Lars, C
1.000 *Martin, Matt, LW

Defence (6):
8.000 Chara, Zdeno
3.500 Visnovsky, Lubomir
1.500 *McQuaid, Adam, D
1.000 *Stoner, Clayton, D
0.750 *Harrison, Jay, D
0.575 *MacDonald, Andrew, D

Goalies (5):
6.250 Miller, Ryan
4.500 Halak, Jaroslav
1.300 *Clemmensen, Scott, G
1.250 *Enroth, Jhonas, G
0.925 *MacDonald, Joey, G


I "adopted" this team - it was a 7th/8th place team when I got them.
I have finished top 4 of 12 in my league each of my three seasons.
Defense for HIT/BLK/PIM.
Don't spend too much on them.
Works. like. Gold.

[bernjean]

Doughty was supposed to be a multi cat STUD.

He hits, blocks and SOG a lot and has 60 pts upside. But he stopped producing.

Thanks a lot for the advices! Rep coming as much as I can.

[leaftodd]

Backstrom, Nicklas C - WAS - 6,700,000 - 2019-2020
Johansen, Ryan C,RW - CBJ - 1,945,000 - 2013-2014
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan C - EDM - 3,775,000 - 2013-2014
Soderberg, Carl (R) C - BOS - 1,008,333 - 2014-2015

Left Wings
Pacioretty, Max LW - MON - 4,500,000 - 2018-2019
Zetterberg, Henrik C,LW - DET - 6,083,333 - 2020-2021

Right Wings
Boedker, Mikkel LW,RW - PHO - UNSIGNED
Okposo, Kyle RW - NYI - 2,800,000 - 2015-2016
Perron, David LW,RW - EDM - 3,812,500 - 2015-2016
Semin, Alexander LW,RW - CAR - 7,000,000 - 2017-2018

Defensmen

Green, Mike D - WAS - 6,083,333 - 2014-2015
Streit, Mark D - PHI - 5,250,000 - 2016-2017
Dillon
Smith
Weircoch
Barrie

Trade
Bogosian, Zach D - WPG - 5,142,857 - 2019-2020
Doughty, Drew D - LA - 7,000,000 - 2018-2019
Fowler, Cam D - ANA - 4,000,000 - 2017-2018

Your goalies are good.

Those are the players I honestly feel are worth owning at this time.

Guys like Dorset and weaver are easily acquired anywhere.

Move your big name d for wingers. Let your forwards carry your points and your d your peripherals. And cheaper.

[bernjean]

Thanks for all the advices!

I have made a few moves since then, to reshape my team.

Traded Doughty + 4th round for Datsyuk. I didn't want to give the 4th round at first, but that was the only return I could get for Doughty's salary. Datsyuk is C/LW in my league, which is good.

Traded 4th overall + Zibanejad for Tavares. Still leaves me with the 2nd overall and 15th overall.

I will probably have to drop Fowler and Bogosian. There is absolutely no interest for them at this point.

Here is how my roster is being remolded so far :
Backstrom, Nicklas C - WAS
Datsyuk, Pavel C,LW - DET
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan C - EDM
Tavares, John C - NYI

Zetterberg, Henrik C,LW - DET
Pacioretty, Max LW - MON
Calvert, Matt LW - CBJ

Palmieri, Kyle C,RW - ANA
Dorsett, Derek C,LW,RW - NYR
Johansen, Ryan C,RW - CBJ
Boedker, Mikkel LW,RW - PHO

Green, Mike D - WAS
Dillon, Brenden D - DAL
Barrie, Tyson D - COL
Weaver, Mike D - FLA

Rask, Tuukka G - BOS
Markstrom, Jacob G - FLA

I'm still working on a deal to acquire a cheap hitter/shot blocker to fill my D.