The Six Pack - Brad Richards Bounces Back

[MXHockey]

Nice article. Loved the end-of-year stats. It might mean if Richards struggles again at the start of the season, he'd be a great cheap mid-season trade/pickup, depending on the league setup.

The only thing that bothers me is that when looking at his points the last few seasons, you stop at the 91-point season. It's interesting to note that in the last eight seasons, only twice did he get more than 70 points (those being the last two seasons in Dallas). To me, this seems like more of an outlier than the norm. So it might be tough to crack 70 again.

But then again, I love bold predictions. You have to go out on a limb with these sorts of things, and you have lots of stuff to back it up. Great job.

Thanks for the feedback and the positive comments.

In regards to your comments about 70 points not being the norm over the past eight seasons.

05/06 - 91pts
06/07 - 70pts
07/08 - 61pts in 72gms (69 point pace)
08/09 - 48pts in 56gms (70 point pace)
09/10 - 91pts
10/11 - 77pts
11/12 - 66pts
12/13 - 34pts in 46gms (60 point pace)

Five of the past eight seasons, he has been on a 70+ point pace and was close in 2007-08 when he was on pace for 69pts.

The last two seasons have been a decline to 66pts and then 60pts pro-rated, but he will get more points under a new coach and a new system.


Anyways, rep to you sir. Thanks again for taking the time to read my original post.

Cheers.

[MXHockey]

What amazes me is that with all of the drama and negativity he was still on pace for 61 points.

I thought that was a surprise too. What surprised me the most is how healthy he has been through his career.

[Shake]

Good article and good feedback all the way around.

[newfcollins]

Thanks man for the feedback and the positive comments.

In regards to you comments about 70 points not being the norm over the past eight seasons.

05/06 - 91pts
06/07 - 70pts
07/08 - 61pts in 72gms (69 point pace)
08/09 - 48pts in 56gms (70 point pace)
09/10 - 91pts
10/11 - 77pts
11/12 - 66pts
12/13 - 34pts in 46gms (60 point pace)

Five of the past eight seasons, he has been on a 70+ point pace and was close in 2007-08 when he was on pace for 69pts.

The last two seasons have been a decline to 66pts and then 60pts pro-rated, but he will get more points under a new coach and a new system.

Just a personal thing, but unless it's a lockout year, I'm not a big fan of going with a points pace or pro-rating. He didn't score 70 points in 07-08, or 08-09.

A lockout year is different, because you're trying to compare it to a normal season length.

My point is the same though, although I miscounted the number of seasons originally (must have counted what he did during the lockout by accident). In the last seven years, he's been above 70 points only twice (and once right on). But that's what makes it a bold prediction: He doesn't have a history of being a consistent 70-point guy. And that's part of why I love the prediction.

[ross10019]

What amazes me is that with all of the drama and negativity he was still on pace for 61 points.

Yeah but keep in mind that he had a ridiculous late season surge (11 pts in his last 6) in games where the Rangers just crushed their opponents, and that helped massage his numbers. I don't think he was playing particularly well but his linemates were hot and he got some bounces going his way. Take out that stretch and he's at 23 pts in 40 games.

[MXHockey]

Just a personal thing, but unless it's a lockout year, I'm not a big fan of going with a points pace or pro-rating. He didn't score 70 points in 07-08, or 08-09.

A lockout year is different, because you're trying to compare it to a normal season length.

My point is the same though, although I miscounted the number of seasons originally (must have counted what he did during the lockout by accident). In the last seven years, he's been above 70 points only twice (and once right on). But that's what makes it a bold prediction: He doesn't have a history of being a consistent 70-point guy. And that's part of why I love the prediction.

Totally get where you're coming from newf. The numbers are the numbers. Injuries are part of the game and they decrease stats across the board for all of us.

The reason I liked using the pro-rated number in this piece are because they suggest Richards is capable of reaching and surpassing 70 points again. If he had pro-rated numbers over those injury related years of 60pt seasons, it would be a real stretch to think he could get 70.

Mainly I was using pro-rated numbers to help support the potential for him to reach 70 points next year.


I appreciate the discussion, and the feedback has been awesome. I would rep you a second time if I could in 24 hours.


Cheers.

[DonKarnage]

Great article, pretty solid analysis. Now to go see if the owner in my league has not read this and is feeling low on him...

[MXHockey]

Great stuff!! Will we really have to wait another month for the next Six Pack??

Thank you sir. I do have a few ideas for the next "Six Pack".

I have a 4-day weekend this weekend and may try and put up another one sometime over the next few days.


Thanks again to everyone for the feedback and comments on this thread and via PM.


Cheers.

[als_revenge]

You have Richards as 70 points and probably more. Dobber has come out with a prediction of 50, and a sleeper stat of 65 (at 25%). It certainly does seem like there will be a great opportunity to buy Richards low, because a lot of people seem really down on him.

This will be one of those "I told ya so" threads if he can pull it off!

[MXHockey]

You have Richards as 70 points and probably more. Dobber has come out with a prediction of 50, and a sleeper stat of 65 (at 25%). It certainly does seem like there will be a great opportunity to buy Richards low, because a lot of people seem really down on him.

This will be one of those "I told ya so" threads if he can pull it off!

It means I have a 48% chance of being right


Seriously, my respectful opinion is if he ends up with 50 points, it would be due to missing some signficant time (20 or more games) because of injury.

[MauriceandtheRichards]

I have to say knowing Molson X personally I'm really impressed that he can put together so many words in a coherent article.

No seriously though a great read and you can tell he definately has in interest in Brad Richards. I think he is trying to build some hype for a trade in the fall

As a Stepan owner I really hope he is right because if Brad produces from the 2 spot at C then it will spread the checkers focus out. Alternatively a producing Stepan opens the ice up for Richards in the 2 spot as the best checkers may focus more on Stepans line. That alone could be a good thing for Richards.

Well done, great article.

[MXHockey]

I have to say knowing Molson X personally I'm really impressed that he can put together so many words in a coherent article.

No seriously though a great read and you can tell he definately has in interest in Brad Richards. I think he is trying to build some hype for a trade in the fall

As a Stepan owner I really hope he is right because if Brad produces from the 2 spot at C then it will spread the checkers focus out. Alternatively a producing Stepan opens the ice up for Richards in the 2 spot as the best checkers may focus more on Stepans line. That alone could be a good thing for Richards.

Well done, great article.

LOL, a tad awkward, but thanks for the comments buddy.