if you've been thinking about approaching the owner of felix hernandez in your keeper league, now would be the time. there has been much discussion about his supposed missing velocity, and after two weak starts, expect the chatter to intensify.

there is nothing wrong with felix. he intentionally throws less hard than years past. he says he has better control and more movement throwing 92-93, than when he threw 94-95. he can still crank it up to 94 if he wants to.

he has the hardest change up in baseball, 89. it is an especially effective pitch for him, he went to it over 50% of the time in 2012. the pitch looks like a cut fastball, and is sometimes mistaken for one...thus lowering his average fastball readings.

if you watched felix pitch last night, you saw him struggle at times, but you also saw him take down beltre on three pitches at a crucial time in the game. two fastballs set up the change, which beltre swung over the top of, and had him shaking his head.

dave cameron wrote this article last april, when all the talk about felix's lost velocity first made the rounds. his analysis is just as apt today;

"Most of the talk about Felix so far this year has centered around his missing velocity, and as a result, the mediocrity of his fastball. But, the fastball has always been Felix’s worst pitch, even when he used to throw 98 with regularity. His curve is very good. His slider is one of the best in the game. But his change-up… that’s the pitch that makes him King Felix.

Change-ups get a bad rap a lot of times, as people think it’s just a slow fastball that throws off a hitter’s timing by fooling them into swinging too early. That’s part of it, but the really good change-ups are so much more. They don’t just float up to the plate – they dive and fade, tailing down and away from opposite-handed hitters, which is why they’re such an effective weapon for RHPs against left-handed batters (and vice versa). They not only get a batter out in front because of the lower velocity, but the tailing, sinking movement causes hitters to swing over the top, so they can be lethal groundball/strikeout pitches.

And no one throws a better diving, tailing change-up than Felix. He doesn’t even bother with the whole deception part of the pitch. His change-up is 87-89, just a couple of ticks below the fastball he’s currently throwing at 90-93. It doesn’t matter. The pitch has so much movement that opposing hitters don’t have a chance, even when they know it’s coming.

And tonight, the Indians had to know it’s coming. Every time he needed a punch-out, he went to the change-up. And not just to left-handers – he was not shy about throwing it at righties either, letting it fall off the table and end up at their ankles. You generally don’t want to throw a pitch that breaks down and in towards a hitter, but his ability to start it in the strike zone and end it outside of the strike zone makes it a swing-and-miss pitch even against same handed batters.

From a quick perusal of the Pitch F/x data, I have him throwing 23 change-ups. Nine of them were swung at and missed, a ridiculous 39.1% swinging strike rate. Six others were fouled off, so 15 of the 23 he threw convinced the opposing batter to chase and yet failed to lead to any kind of quality contact. In fact, not one single change-up was put in play all night long – the other eight were taken for a ball. That’s absurd.

Never was the pitch more on display than in the eighth inning. After one clean single and two cheap infield hits, Felix had the bases loaded and only one out with a one run lead. Left-handed batter Jason Kipnis stepped in. Felix needed a strikeout or a double play, but given that a ground ball could score the run even without leaving the infield, a K was Felix’s best bet to preserve the lead.

Curveball, taken, strike one.
Change-up, swinging strike, strike two.
Fastball, taken, ball one.
Change-up, swinging strike, strike three.

Then, up stepped Shin-Soo Choo. He’d been watching Felix throw change-ups all night long. He just watched Felix put Kipnis down with two deadly change-ups. He had to know what was coming, especially if he got behind in the count.
Curveball, taken, ball one.
Fastball, foul, strike one.
Fastball, taken, strike two.
Change-up, swinging strike, strike three.

There was no doubt that Felix was going to throw Shin-Soo Choo a change-up on that 1-2 pitch. I knew it. Felix knew it. Choo knew it. He still couldn’t touch it.

Mariano Rivera’s cutter. Justin Verlander’s fastball. Clayton Kershaw’s slider. Felix’s change-up is right there with them, and in the discussion for the best pitch in baseball.
Yeah, he didn’t get a “win” tonight, but anyone watching the game saw Felix at his best. Even without his best velocity, it didn’t matter. His change-up is that good. "

felix's next start is against detroit. he may struggle again, and give you even more leverage in your trade negotiations. or he may be felix, and you would have waited too long.