Ryan Suter - Norris Trophy winner?

[STONE.]

I'm guessing Beauchemin.

[bigbabybuda]

I wouldn't count on it. Look back at first or second year breakout Ds over the last bunch of years -- how many fall back the following year? It often takes a fall back to earth (and then they bounce back a season or two later).

Examples from the past handful of years: Fowler, Myers, Coburn, Enstrom, Carle, Phaneuf, MDZ, Gardiner, Hamhuis -- there are lots of examples of early breakouts that fell back to earth. These guys looked like they'd be perennial top 10 point-getters after breakout years early, then they hit some harder times -- some bounced back, some didn't.

I'm not saying Voynov will definitely do this, but it seems to happen often enough. Can't count on continued improvement. Guys will have ups, then downs.

There is one huge difference between all those players and Voynov. Voynov was 3 or 4 years older then the lot of them when he became a regular in the NHL and has been a professional, playing against men since he was 16-17 years old. Huge difference then most of them. Plus he has a Stanley Cup playoff run under his belt in which he stood up as his teams 2nd best dman. Makes that point mute imo. Regression is not in the cards for him..

[rataylor22]

There is one huge difference between all those players and Voynov. Voynov was 3 or 4 years older then the lot of them when he became a regular in the NHL and has been a professional, playing against men since he was 16-17 years old. Huge difference then most of them. Plus he has a Stanley Cup playoff run under his belt in which he stood up as his teams 2nd best dman. Makes that point mute imo. Regression is not in the cards for him..

However to your point, he's not even the best Dman on his team, let alone close to winning a trophy for best defenseman in the NHL. Underrated? Yes. But I mean, Kimmo Timonen leads his team in points by Dmen too. More goes into it then that a Voynov is not a Norris player. Top 5 next year? Ahead of Karlsson, Subban, Pietrangelo, Weber, Suter, Doughty, Chara, Yandle, OEL, Letang, Carlson, Byfuglien, Faulk, Campbell, Keith? No. Like absolutely no chance. In fact going through that list, he's definitely not a top 10 defenseman this year either.

[Pengwin7]

Worst individual stat in hockey.

Oh no... Comish, not you too?!

Some random cross-over information about +/-:
1. Did you know that basketball has started tracking +/- in their box scores in recent years?
2. Did you know it stems from a guy who covered the Houston Rockets and wanted to prove that Shane Battier's on-court presence usually resulted in a positive point differential for the Rockets?
3. Did you know that an article was written up about Battier and the +/- and published to the New York Times by a guy named Michael Lewis?
4. Did you know that Michael Lewis has written several books focused on persons who have been successful by extracting value from statistical analysis? Moneyball - anybody?
5. Moneyball is written about Oakland GM Billy Beane. I'm sure some of you have seen that movie or know the story about how successful Beane has been by using statistics to select best players for his team.

I don't know... to me... arguing the value of +/-, goals for, and goals against and other worthwhile (IMO) statistics... well, it's like telling Billy Beane & others that they should just "watch the games" and not crunch the numbers.

[Big Ev]

Billy Beane and his moneyball was a huge flop. They didn't win anything, and they have deviated from that strategy since then. Moneyball is a joke.

Basketball +/- is not the same. There are no on the fly line changes, so it's completely different.

You do have to watch the games. Stats, other than goals and assists, and advanced stats are irrelevant most of the time in hockey. Last year, everyone knew Karlsson was the most dominant D. Didn't matter that advanced stats favoured Weber or Chara. It wasn't close who had more impact on the game.

[Big Ev]

For defensemen, I give a special focus on how many goals against he's been on per 60min (this is because good forwards can inflate the GF side of the +/-).
Defensemen are mostly responsible for their GA totals though... and that's key. (though a goalie's SV% will factor in)
I go to behindthenet.ca to get those.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...6+27+28#snip=f

For defensemen playing 30+ games:
1st. Beauchemin
12th. Subban
23rd. Chara

So why no consideration for Patrick Wiercioch or Nick Leddy or Jake Muzzinw ho have nearly the same GA on/60 and not too far back in points? This is why stats are irrelevant most of the time.

Hockey is a team sport with on the fly line changes and many different things happening at once. If you wanna take these stats into consideration then go ahead, but the real hockey people will and always will rely on their knowledge of the game, their gut feels, and their EYES. Beauchemin isn't close to Subban this year.

[27Blue]

the stats that Billy Beane and the boys looked at were completely individual... pitches taken, on base percentage, etc are not influenced by other members of the team. +/- is completely influenced by the 11 other skaters on the ice - not only a player's teammates, but also his opponents. people who know hockey trust their eyes not the numbers.

[Pengwin7]

Ev - sorry man... I won't answer your question.

I know you like hockey. I know you are passionate about it.
You are one of the most colourful forum members on DobberHockey. That's cool.

But I really don't like the way you troll me in +/- threads.
I don't want to have to repeat this every time.

We are not on the same page with +/-.
Agreeing to disagree on that topic is fine.

I think, here on the forums, it is fair to have an intense discussion with another forum member once on a given topic.
If it goes nowhere, it shouldn't be entertained with that same forum member again.
I have the +/- discussion often, but with different people, and never more than once with that same person if we are in distinct disagreement.

You and me and +/-... let's just leave it alone.
Cool?

[Thunder]

Billy Beane and his moneyball was a huge flop. They didn't win anything, and they have deviated from that strategy since then. Moneyball is a joke.

Basketball +/- is not the same. There are no on the fly line changes, so it's completely different.

You do have to watch the games. Stats, other than goals and assists, and advanced stats are irrelevant most of the time in hockey. Last year, everyone knew Karlsson was the most dominant D. Didn't matter that advanced stats favoured Weber or Chara. It wasn't close who had more impact on the game.

That's actually what I've been wondering reading this thread. How many of us have actually watched enough Minnesota Wild games this season to confidently opine on Ryan Suter's defensive play based on personal observation alone?

I've seen Suter play enough over the years to know he's a solid d-man generally. But I don't think I've seen a single Wild game this season. So I sure can't tell based on direct evidence if he is the NHL's best defensemen this year.

It's not like the Oscars where it's actually possible to watch all the nominees and pick who you think is best. I doubt anyone who votes on the Norris really has seen a large enough sample of the games played by the different nominees to really make an enlightened decision based on personal observation alone. No wonder it's a bit of a "reputation" award. How else could it be?

[doulos]

This is one of those cases where an NHL GameCentre account would actually be worth the money.

Go back through the games this season and focus on one player from one team and check every instance where they got a + or - and then actually see the value of the stat.

Would be very interesting.

[Big Ev]

Ev - sorry man... I won't answer your question.

I know you like hockey. I know you are passionate about it.
You are one of the most colourful forum members on DobberHockey. That's cool.

But I really don't like the way you troll me in +/- threads.
I don't want to have to repeat this every time.

We are not on the same page with +/-.
Agreeing to disagree on that topic is fine.

I think, here on the forums, it is fair to have an intense discussion with another forum member once on a given topic.
If it goes nowhere, it shouldn't be entertained with that same forum member again.
I have the +/- discussion often, but with different people, and never more than once with that same person if we are in distinct disagreement.

You and me and +/-... let's just leave it alone.
Cool?

We cool Pengwin.

[Big Ev]

That's actually what I've been wondering reading this thread. How many of us have actually watched enough Minnesota Wild games this season to confidently opine on Ryan Suter's defensive play based on personal observation alone?

I've seen Suter play enough over the years to know he's a solid d-man generally. But I don't think I've seen a single Wild game this season. So I sure can't tell based on direct evidence if he is the NHL's best defensemen this year.

It's not like the Oscars where it's actually possible to watch all the nominees and pick who you think is best. I doubt anyone who votes on the Norris really has seen a large enough sample of the games played by the different nominees to really make an enlightened decision based on personal observation alone. No wonder it's a bit of a "reputation" award. How else could it be?

Agreed, which is why this award is flawed since media members are voting on it. Most media members only cover one specific team for the most part. Especially this year where this is no inter-conference games, you're going to have a lot of bias. I can't comment on any of the West d-men for the most part so I take back what I said abut Beauchemin since I haven't seen him more than once or twice. I can only give my opinion on East players for the most part this year.

[MXHockey]

J Schultz>>> N Schultz >>>>>>> Smid

[robmyatt]

Another great piece on this Norris debate.
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/20...habs-canadiens

[robmyatt]

Some more support for Subban's case.
http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/....html?spref=tw