Ryan Suter - Norris Trophy winner?

[STONE.]

I was super skeptical about Suter going into the season. He's been fantastic.
I think he gets it over PK -- he's still too much of a polarizing figure to guarantee votes consistently.

My call: PK gets a lot of first place votes and a surprising number of no-votes (or lower votes). Suter wins because he'll be on every ballot (and will get his share of first place votes as well).

[ericdaoust]

Been hearing Beauchemin's name a bit in Norris consideration.

[SeaDawg]

Been hearing Beauchemin's name a bit in Norris consideration.

I heard that at one point as well, but earlier in the season. He has tailed off considerably with only 5 pts in his last 16 games.

[robmyatt]

and subban wont get full credit because of markov.

I've heard this argument a few times and It really doesn't hold much water. Sure playing with Markov is great but it shouldn't discredit Subban's accomplishments.
I've heard that Markov inflated Souray's and Streits numbers but both of them went on to be 50pt defencemen in Edmonton and NYI without him.

Subban only has few more points than Suter, but remember that he's done it in 7 LESS games while receiving hardly any TOI for the first few weeks. Subban also has him in the +/- category which may not be a real strong indicator of defensive prowess but is often considered by the voters. Not only that but one has to consider the learning curve for most defenseman can be longer than forwards and Subban is 5 years younger than Suter. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. Subban will be leaned upon heavily in these remaining games with Emelin out and as most have pointed out this is a tight race therefore these last few weeks will probably determine the final results.

The defense rests your honour.
Subban never rests.....

[Pengwin7]

The Norris... like other awards, is a bit of a reputation award.
Unfortunately, I've found that it is somewhat awarded for a player's play over the last couple of years combined with where his team is in the standings.

When Chara won the award, I didn't think he was the best for THAT year... but he was the best over the last couple of years.

When Keith won the award, I didn't think he was the best for THAT year... but he was the best over the last couple of years.

Lidstrom's last award was the biggest travesty... winning the award in a year where he was -2... ugh, terrible pick.
(Don't get my wrong, I love Lidstrom, greatest D by far of our generation, but that was a reputation pick instead of a merit pick.)


If we are talking about best defensemen for THIS year:
1. PK Subban
2. Francois Beauchemin
3. Zdeno Chara

I think those three guys have been the best this year.
I don't focus as hard on points.

IMO, the most critical thing for a defenseman is his +/- (even strength) per 60minutes.
If you score more goals than your opponent over 60minutes, you win the game. Period.
For defensemen, I give a special focus on how many goals against he's been on per 60min (this is because good forwards can inflate the GF side of the +/-).
Defensemen are mostly responsible for their GA totals though... and that's key. (though a goalie's SV% will factor in)
I go to behindthenet.ca to get those.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...6+27+28#snip=f

For defensemen playing 30+ games:
1st. Beauchemin
12th. Subban
23rd. Chara

Now, understanding that this is a bit of a "reputation" pick... we have to note that PK Subban isn't exactly the most liked player in the league. AND this is really the first season he's been good by +/-, which is partially due to a better overall Montreal team and Price playing well. (Yes, even I take +/- in context... but still the best, most-telling, most-valuable stat in hockey. Others can disagree. That's my stance and I have yet to hear an argument on a more-telling, more-valuable statistic.)

So, by reputation picks, I think the nominees will be:
1. Weber
2. Suter
3. Chara
3a. Keith

Seriously... Keith could get in there simply because:
a) People know him well.
b) He's a former Norris winner
c) The Hawks are leading the NHL in points.

I think Chara will win it... though I'd personally give it to Subban this year.
(and I've ragged on Subban for a long, long, long time.)

[SeaDawg]

The Norris... like other awards, is a bit of a reputation award.
Unfortunately, I've found that it is somewhat awarded for a player's play over the last couple of years combined with where his team is in the standings.

this is exactly what I was trying to say, but you did a better job...this right here is the reason I have two lists (who I think should win the award and who I think will win the award).

[JagrBomb]

I've heard this argument a few times and It really doesn't hold much water. Sure playing with Markov is great but it shouldn't discredit Subban's accomplishments.
I've heard that Markov inflated Souray's and Streits numbers but both of them went on to be 50pt defencemen in Edmonton and NYI without him.

Subban only has few more points than Suter, but remember that he's done it in 7 LESS games while receiving hardly any TOI for the first few weeks. Subban also has him in the +/- category which may not be a real strong indicator of defensive prowess but is often considered by the voters. Not only that but one has to consider the learning curve for most defenseman can be longer than forwards and Subban is 5 years younger than Suter. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. Subban will be leaned upon heavily in these remaining games with Emelin out and as most have pointed out this is a tight race therefore these last few weeks will probably determine the final results.

The defense rests your honour.
Subban never rests.....

regardless, people will see markov having a good season, and the fact that he made guys like souray, komisarek etc look like stars. the montreal powerplay is pretty lethal, and im sure we can all agree subban wouldnt be as effective without markov. he's still put up a good season, but not as good.

suter doesnt really have anyone to compete with on minny, so he has an edge in that category since he is more valuable to his team. subban was out at the beginning of the season and the habs were just fine without him. i know this isnt the hart we're talking about, but voters will take that into consideration.

[rataylor22]

(Yes, even I take +/- in context... but still the best, most-telling, most-valuable stat in hockey. Others can disagree. That's my stance and I have yet to hear an argument on a more-telling, more-valuable statistic.)

Here is your argument. Name a play where all 5 players are involved on a goal being scored. Positively or negatively. I do believe it is more telling for defensemen than forwards, but there are extremely few plays where all 5 on ice players are responsible for a goal being scored. Here are some examples of plays where not all 5 players are involved.

Team A is in O-Zone. Dman Shoots in to a block. Team B gets a breakaway and scores. 1 players fault/good play. 4 uninvolved players per team get a +/-

Team A is in O-zone. Execute a few rounds of a cycle and scores. Dmen on Team A are not involved, get a plus anyways. Wingers covering the points (doing their defensive job) are not involved and get a minus.

Team A is executing a breakout. Winger tries an ill-advised pass and gives puck away in the slot. Team B scores. 5 players get a minus, at most 2 were at fault.

Team A shoots the puck in from center. Goalie misplays it. 5 players get a minus

Team A has puck in O-zone. Puck goes back to the Dman. Shoots, scores. Far side winger and weak side defensman get a minus, weren't involved in the play

Here is the one play where all 5 players are at fault. Team A has sustained O-zone pressure. Multiple players fail to clear when they have the chance. Team B gets caught running around, Team A eventually scores.

Can I give you an argument for a more-telling stat of defensive accumen? I cannot. However, +/- is not all that telling for a players defensive ability. It will be high on good teams and low on bad teams. Is Bergeron a +20 player if he plays on Florida? Unlikely. Switch JT and Malkin. Is Tavares a -5 on Pittsburgh if he takes Malkin's spot and is Malkin a +3 on the Islanders if takes Tavares' spot? Unlikely, those numbers probably switch. Is Skinner a -15 if Cam Ward isn't injured? Unlikely. Is he a -15 he was on Pittsburgh instead of Carolina? You bet your *** he wouldn't be. It just isn't a very accurate stat. It is more telling of team talent and team play style than defensive ability.

[gfhyde]

Here's a good paragraph from Friedman about P.K. Subban not playing the toughest of minutes:

"A few tweeters asked about post-game comments I made regarding PK Subban and the Norris Trophy for top defenceman. Here is the issue. Through Tuesday, Subban is playing 17:18 minutes per night at even strength. That's 89th in the NHL. Among recent Norris winners, Duncan Keith was second, Erik Karlsson fifth and Zdeno Chara sixth. Since 2005, Nicklas Lidstrom finished 16th, 17th, 20th, and, in his final victory at age 41, 105th, which, incidentally, was Subban's ranking last Saturday. If Subban continues to move up the chart, it will increase his candidacy. He's improving and is going to be a great player, but recent history (the great Lidstrom's last season aside) says you've got to play the toughest minutes to win."

[ericdaoust]

Yeah Subban has played much easier minutes this year. Still has tough assignments but not to the degree of what it was last year.

[JagrBomb]

whoever wins the award needs to buy matt cooke a lapdance

[robmyatt]

Yeah Subban has played much easier minutes this year. Still has tough assignments but not to the degree of what it was last year.

I was waiting for someone to bring up the 30 thoughts piece.
One also has to realize that it's not Subban's fault he has received less difficult minutes than last year. Montreal is finally healthy and Therrien has had the luxury of having high quality D in Diaz and Georges Markov, & Emelin who could face the tough competition and perform well. Outside of Suter and Brodin (who is performing extraordinarily well) they don't really have anyone else they can trust to give the minutes to as well as play on the power play.



http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

[rataylor22]

I was waiting for someone to bring up the 30 thoughts piece.
One also has to realize that it's not Subban's fault he has received less difficult minutes than last year. Montreal is finally healthy and Therrien has had the luxury of having high quality D in Diaz and Georges Markov, & Emelin who could face the tough competition and perform well. Outside of Suter and Brodin (who is performing extraordinarily well) they don't really have anyone else they can trust to give the minutes to as well as play on the power play.



http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

The error in your thinking is every team will play their best defensemen Against the toughest matchups. The Kings have a pretty good D, Doughty is still playing 27 minutes a night. If Subban was one of their stronger Defensemen (in a defensive sense) he would be playing those minutes and those matchups regardless of who else was on the team.

[SeaDawg]

I was waiting for someone to bring up the 30 thoughts piece.
One also has to realize that it's not Subban's fault he has received less difficult minutes than last year. Montreal is finally healthy and Therrien has had the luxury of having high quality D in Diaz and Georges Markov, & Emelin who could face the tough competition and perform well. Outside of Suter and Brodin (who is performing extraordinarily well) they don't really have anyone else they can trust to give the minutes to as well as play on the power play.

this is similar to the argument that was made last year about Karlsson not being deserving because he didn't kill panalties

truth is, he did lose some votes because of this and if he wasn't so much better than everyone else in the league offensively, that would have been enough for him to not receive the Norris

this year, with Suter being so close to Subban in the pts race, this issue will be enough of a determining factor in chosing Suter over Subban

[newfcollins]

I think it should be Subban, but it will depend on the media for the next couple of weeks. It's almost like Subban peaked too early with talk of the Norris, and now people are getting sick of it. Suter though, hasn't been mentioned, so if you start to see more articles about Suter winning it, that will turn the momentum his way.

I think Suter has the story behind him to win it this year: Still doing well without Weber, Nashville struggling, Minny in the playoffs. Many will feel it's a better story, I think.