2013 NFL Mock Draft

[Bomm Bastic]

Which is all well and good but if you are gonna go that route then you either:

1) Trade down to get multiple picks so rather than using such a high value choice on a guy who shouldn't go there simply because of need you fall back to take that guy at a more reasonable draft slot and add another pick or two (or three) to do so. The spray and pray approach.

2) trade down/out and land 1sts in later years - basically betting that you'll get your starting QB either by having multiple valued assets or that either your future pick or theirs will allow you to draft one.

3) draft a stud at another position and then wait/trade up from the second or third round to draft your guy. This way you draft a sure fire piece and then the most definitely CAN-miss quarterback you want can be drafted at a more reasonable draft slot.

Baltimore actually did a combination of 1 and 3 in '08 when they drafted Flacco. They traded back in the first adding two thirds and a fourth and then used one of those thirds and a sixth to trade up a little to ensure they got their guy even though he was rated a second rounder prior to the draft. And they did so starting with the exact pick the Bills have now.

I don't mind the idea of the Bills going out of their way to draft the guy they really want but simply using the 8th pick on any of these guys is overkill.

Well, I should have clarified. My assuredness of the Bills and Barkley at eight is contingent on Geno being gone by that point - due his pro day and subsequent hype.

Bills are going WR or QB in the first. A hypothetical long shot (if that's not redundant) scenario would be the Bills trading down from eight IFF both Geno and Barkley remain on the board. But if Geno is gone by the time the board rolls down to the Bills at eight, Barkley will the guy.

[steve_oshp]

Well, I should have clarified. My assuredness of the Bills and Barkley at eight is contingent on Geno being gone by that point - due his pro day and subsequent hype.

Bills are going WR or QB in the first. A hypothetical long shot (if that's not redundant) scenario would be the Bills trading down from eight IFF both Geno and Barkley remain on the board. But if Geno is gone by the time the board rolls down to the Bills at eight, Barkley will the guy.

That makes a lot of sense, unless the Bills actually like someone else more than both those guys. But yeah if the QB they like is there at 8 I think they go that route. No way they go into the season with Tarvaris Jackson as the only viable starter.

[NoWayOut]

Well, I should have clarified. My assuredness of the Bills and Barkley at eight is contingent on Geno being gone by that point - due his pro day and subsequent hype.

Bills are going WR or QB in the first. A hypothetical long shot (if that's not redundant) scenario would be the Bills trading down from eight IFF both Geno and Barkley remain on the board. But if Geno is gone by the time the board rolls down to the Bills at eight, Barkley will the guy.

Don't be surprised if you start to hear EJ Manuel's name here. His stock has started to rise lately and in some cases he's been bumped up as high as the #2 QB. Personally, I'm not sold on any of the QB's in this class as high first rounders with the possible exception of Geno. Late first, early second, yes, early first not so sure. This isn't a good year to be looking for that franchise QB.

[Axeman33]

Is it just me or does this draft year seem to be weak overall for offensive players. Sure there are a few very good WR's but the QB position is weak and there isnt even a real top of the chart type of RB available this year either. If you look at most mock drafts right now, there isnt one RB listed as going in the 1st round.

[Bomm Bastic]

Is it just me or does this draft year seem to be weak overall for offensive players. Sure there are a few very good WR's but the QB position is weak and there isnt even a real top of the chart type of RB available this year either. If you look at most mock drafts right now, there isnt one RB listed as going in the 1st round.

True. It's deep for WR talent, but not much else. With the exception of Lacey, there are no truly apparent stud RBs. QBs have been discussed...EJ Manuel (as NWO mentioned) is too raw to go in the first (imo). He's got the talent, but he'll need time to develop. TEs meh, there are some talents but does anyone take a TE in the first?

Defensive fronts are a changin', and teams are stocking up on these players....and with the rookie wage scale in place there's not as much risk for GMs to draft linemen and DBs higher than years prior.

So probably going to see a slew of DEs and linebackers go in the first, with a splash of guards thrown in for good measure.

[TheWhale]

Don't be surprised if you start to hear EJ Manuel's name here. His stock has started to rise lately and in some cases he's been bumped up as high as the #2 QB. Personally, I'm not sold on any of the QB's in this class as high first rounders with the possible exception of Geno. Late first, early second, yes, early first not so sure. This isn't a good year to be looking for that franchise QB.

I've been hearing his name quite a bit already. Mayock is in love with him...this is a big person draft. Early on, teams would be wise to invest in their DL's and OL's. Unless wr is a position of need because there are some really good options there.

[dejeanneret]

And here's why drafting a QB early this year is a downright scary proposition. From rotoworld:

Based on tape study, NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated on Path to the Draft Thursday that Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib is his No. 1-rated draft-eligible quarterback.
Cosell agrees with Russ Lande of the National Football Post, who also grades Nassib as this year's top signal caller. Cosell cited Geno Smith's "slow eyes" in terms of anticipation and "ball location" on intermediate to deep throws as reasons for concern. "My No. 1 quarterback based on the film study I've done is Ryan Nassib," Cosell said. "I liked him overall more than Geno Smith. I think he's a much more precise intermediate thrower. I think the ball comes out with a little better velocity at the intermediate level. And I think he's a little more accurate. And I like his footwork a little bit better."

[steve_oshp]

And here's why drafting a QB early this year is a downright scary proposition. From rotoworld:

Based on tape study, NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated on Path to the Draft Thursday that Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib is his No. 1-rated draft-eligible quarterback.
Cosell agrees with Russ Lande of the National Football Post, who also grades Nassib as this year's top signal caller. Cosell cited Geno Smith's "slow eyes" in terms of anticipation and "ball location" on intermediate to deep throws as reasons for concern. "My No. 1 quarterback based on the film study I've done is Ryan Nassib," Cosell said. "I liked him overall more than Geno Smith. I think he's a much more precise intermediate thrower. I think the ball comes out with a little better velocity at the intermediate level. And I think he's a little more accurate. And I like his footwork a little bit better."

I watched that Path to the Draft episode, and they asked the panel - don't think Cosell was asked - whether they think any of the top ranked QB's this year are at the level Ryan Tannehill was last year, and the consensus was no. BUT it wasn't an emphatic no, more like an 'I don't think so'. Considering how Tannehill did last year and that expectations now are of him going on to a NFL success, it's hard to say any of the top QB's this year won't be successful. It's all about managing expectations and whether they are put into a position to succeed.

[dejeanneret]

I watched that Path to the Draft episode, and they asked the panel - don't think Cosell was asked - whether they think any of the top ranked QB's this year are at the level Ryan Tannehill was last year, and the consensus was no. BUT it wasn't an emphatic no, more like an 'I don't think so'. Considering how Tannehill did last year and that expectations now are of him going on to a NFL success, it's hard to say any of the top QB's this year won't be successful. It's all about managing expectations and whether they are put into a position to succeed.

Very fair point, and well taken. But the problem with young near the top of the draft QBs is that they frequently aren't put into a position to succeed almost by definition. Very few teams that find themselves drafting a QB early have (a) the luxury -- or perhaps put better, the patience, to let the newbie sit and learn for a year or three, and (b) the other necessary piecesnn place on a team to allow even an established QB to succeed (I.e., they tend to have offensive line troubles, a lack of capable receivers, no threat of a running game, or frequently a combination of the above).

So that's what makes me nervous about possibly taking a QB early this season when one (much less more than one) hasn't clearly separated himself as being worth that near top of the draft value. The risk of taking a young guy that a team might feel the need to play immediately, but who might not be prepared to handle it, and who might not have nearly enough other pieces in place to help ease the transition, seem to increase exponentially.

[steve_oshp]

Very fair point, and well taken. But the problem with young near the top of the draft QBs is that they frequently aren't put into a position to succeed almost by definition. Very few teams that find themselves drafting a QB early have (a) the luxury -- or perhaps put better, the patience, to let the newbie sit and learn for a year or three, and (b) the other necessary piecesnn place on a team to allow even an established QB to succeed (I.e., they tend to have offensive line troubles, a lack of capable receivers, no threat of a running game, or frequently a combination of the above).

So that's what makes me nervous about possibly taking a QB early this season when one (much less more than one) hasn't clearly separated himself as being worth that near top of the draft value. The risk of taking a young guy that a team might feel the need to play immediately, but who might not be prepared to handle it, and who might not have nearly enough other pieces in place to help ease the transition, seem to increase exponentially.

For sure, in fact last preseason I said if the dolphins started tannehill he would flop. Maybe because garrard won the starting job and got hurt and they put in tannehill 'knowing' he wasn't ready it set the expectations real low and to his credit he handled the pressure and the situation alot better than I thought he would.

[dodospice]

Maybe its just me but Matt Barkley is my number 1 QB in this draft

[bigbabybuda]

I'd put my money on the Bills selecting Matt Barkley at 8. He's proven capable of coming into an org and taking over - a leader. And Bills are going to need that quality.

I would take that bet bro. No way Barkley goes that high imo.

[Bomm Bastic]

I would take that bet bro. No way Barkley goes that high imo.

We shall see.

That Kolb signing guaranteed him only $1 mil. The remainder was incentive laden, so I think the Bills still go QB at 8th. Certainly the signing doesn't rule it out anyway.

[bigbabybuda]

We shall see.

That Kolb signing guaranteed him only $1 mil. The remainder was incentive laden, so I think the Bills still go QB at 8th. Certainly the signing doesn't rule it out anyway.

I think they will draft a QB but I suspect they trade down between 15 and 25 to get there QB. Taking him at 8 is a huge stretch imo

[TheWhale]

I think they will draft a QB but I suspect they trade down between 15 and 25 to get there QB. Taking him at 8 is a huge stretch imo

Winner winner chicken dinner. The only qb they would take at 8 is geno. But suspect they either trade down or use the 8th overall pick to fill another hole. Then trade back into the 1st round and select nassib.

If by chance the bills select a qb at 8 not named geno, buffalo will blow up.....literally