Shonn Greene for Greg Jennings

[MrQuacky]

I was just offered Greg Jennings for my Shonn Greene. My team is pretty hurting right now and my RB's are certainly no exception. League scoring is a little weird, I've posted the stats that matter as well as my current RB's and WR's below

Receiving/running yards: 1 point per 5 yards
Receptions: 1.5 points
Rushing attempts: 0.75 points
Touchdowns: 3 points

We start 2 RB's and 4 WR's each week

RB: Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Bush, Shonn Greene
WR: Julio Jones, Roddy White, Percy Harvin, Brandon Lafell, Randall Cobb, Denarius Moore

RB's of note on the WW include:
Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer

What do the experts say?

[Matt Price]

Do this trade now. Greene is not someone you want to rely on every week. Jennings is, especially with that huge 1.5 PPR bonus. Greene has hands of stone.

[AldoWeldon]

Weird stats. Let's break it down.

We will assume Greene will get 15 carries per game. That was his average last year. I think this is fair. I also think many games he will see more than this. We will also assume he catches 1.5 balls a game, for 5 yards a piece. That would be worse than what he averaged last year.

Let's be conservative, and say he averages 3.5 yards per carry (those would be horrendous rushing totals, by the way)

15 carries at .75pts a piece = 11.25 points a game

15 carries of 3.5 yards per carry= 52 yards, at 1pt for every 5 yards= 10.4 points a game

1.5 catches a game at 1.5pts per catch=2.25pts for receptions each game, and another 1.5 for the yardage from them, so that would equal 3.75 pts per game

So, WITHOUT any touchdowns, and with poor rushing totals, Greene should average about 25.5 points per game.

Last season, Jennings averaged a little over 5 catches a game. With him, I like his upside, so let's be generous and say he catches 6 per game this year.
He also averaged about 14.1 yards per catch. This seems appropriate to me.

6 catches a game at 1.5pts per catch= 9 pts for receptions
14.1 yards per catch, 6 catches a game, = 85 yards per game, = 17 points for yardage

So, WITHOUT any touchdowns, Jennings is looking at 26 points per game.


So, they are actually very close.

BUT, Jennings should score a lot of TDs. He should also have games with well over 6 catches, and well over 85 yards.

BUT, my projections for Greene were very very conservative. He should definitely outperform my projections.

It's closer than it looks at first glance. It's not as lopsided a deal as the previous poster said. Scoring cats are everything in fantasy football.


Despite that, I definitely like Jennings here.

Greene DOES have hands of stone, and in my opinion he's a pretty bad running back. But he is all they have, so he will still get touches. But I want the talented guy every time. Jennings is an elite receiver.

Assuming Jennings regains full health and plays 12/13 more games this year, I think he could easily hit 10 TDs. Greene I don't think has a chance at 10 TDs.


MORAL OF THE STORY: there is A LOT more to fantasy football than just names. You need to really understand your scoring set-up if you want to be successful. Best of luck!


EDIT: Drop Randall Cobb and pick up Ben Tate. Then you will be trading Greene/Cobb for Jennings/Tate. Absolutely ridiculous.

[dmvincent]

Absolute no brainer IMO, Jennings is far better than Greene will ever be.