NYG, HOU, BAL are all good picks this week!!
Think I'm going to GB and San Fran.
Giants too popular. Nicks out. Browns looked good against Bal last week. Most ppl in my pool will be on them. I live diversifying and GB and SF both have great win odds and lower percentage of public picking them.
NYG, HOU, BAL are all good picks this week!!
Zorro says "vote for Dobber"
Angus is my best friend at dobberhockey..
HOU is really good if you still have them available. BAL should win but their odds aren't as good as others and they have some really good value in weeks 9/10.
NYG will prob win, but they are hurt, and CLE has looked a bit better of late. There's also too many people picking them, so if they lose roughly 40% of your pool should be eliminated.
Damn GB! Out in one of my pools. 10 left in the other. Might just go with the flow and take ATL this week. We'll see.
536 people left in my suicide of 4200 people...i have one spot left and used eagles , chargers , bears , texans and giants.....I think im going to go falcons but its risky since the raiders are healthy now and coming off a bye week...are the cardinals or any other teams a consideration chowder?
Down to 3 in mine at work. One guy had Cincy last week!!
I was debating between taking Pittsburgh (@Ten) or Atlanta (vs Oak) and originally had Pittsburgh tonight. But I can't take a road team in survivor. Just can't do it. Plus with Atlanta having a bye next week, then playing Philly, Dallas and New Orleans.....this is the week to take them.
YAYAYAAYAYAAAAAAAAAAA Survivor down to 2 people!!!
I'll bet this game cleared a lot of people out this week.
I'm torn.
Atl is definitely the safest pick. But I don't think it's the most profitable pick.
My pool has 10 remaining, maybe less after Pittsburgh lost, but I won't know who, if any, picked them until after the deadline passes tomorrow at 1.
I expect 4-6 people in my pool will be on Atlanta.
It's riskier, but ultimately more profitable to differentiate and go with one of Ari, TB, Mia imo. San Fran is an excellent option as well but I've already taken them.
Not taking Atlanta has a few benefits:
1) Gives you a chance to eliminate roughly half your pool.
2) Lets you save Atl for future weeks.
BUT they are easily the safest pick.
In general I am a risk taker and will steer away from the popular pick if there's other relatively safe options so I can increase my equity. Just not sure how I feel about the other teams right now.
My pick is currently on ATL. My mind is telling me to pick someone else, probably TB or Ari, but my heart and my babyness is telling me to stay on Atl.
I think if I wasn't eliminated in my other pool last week I'd probably pick TB in one and Ari in the other this week.
I'm trying to convince myself to change my pick, but can't do it yet. Will think about it some more and report back before 1est tomorrow.
switched it to Tampa for now. Egads!
Im so confused as to how your deadline is tomorrow at 1?
But anyways....I just think you have to take Atlanta the way theyre playing and based on the upcoming schedule. Do you really think your pool will last another 4 weeks after this? Because that's the next time theyre a safe pick with a bye, then Dallas, Philly and the Saints coming up.
why are you so confused about the deadline? it's a standard yahoo deadline.
if you want to pick a thursday game, that pick has to be locked in before kickoff, but the picks still aren't revealed until sunday at 1pm est.
my main reason for not taking ATL isn't to save them for their future value, it's because if they happen to lose I imagine half my pool will be knocked out, which doubles my equity in the pool.
If I take them along with half the pool, and they win, and we assume 1 of tb/mia/nyj/sf lose, and only 1 person in my pool was on that specific team that lost, my equity is only increased by 10% (10 are remaining in my pool)
keeping ATL for later is just an added value.
Imagine this scenario...
There are 100 people in your pool. The Packers are 95% to win. Everyone in your pool takes them. Every other team in the league is somehow favored to lose.
You'd still be better off taking a team favored to lose because you can win the pool right there. Say the team you take only wins 48% of the time. The Packers lose 5% of the time.
Your odds to win the pool in this scenario are 2.4% that week are 2.4% - as an added bonus if your team wins and the Packers do as well, there's still 100 people in your pool, but you're the only one with the Packers remaining that means in future weeks you'll have an option that they all don't.
If you take the Packers like everybody else, a 1 in 100 chance to win the pool makes you have a 1% chance to win the pool. You're more than doubling your chances to win by taking an underdog while everyone else in your pool takes 95% favorite.
That is an extreme example! No team is ever 95% to win, and never is every other team in the league going to be favored to lose. That means you'll be even better off than just 2.4x your odds to win by not taking the heavily picked favourite.
Last edited by chowder; October 13, 2012 at 7:48 PM.
I may change mine from atlanta to tampa also still deciding
with 536 ppl left in your pool there is even a stronger reason to fade the public popularity pick.
primarily because it's much more likely the overall pick % in your pool will be similar to the public picking %
in a smaller league there's more variants at play and you need to try to assess what your opponents will pick so you can figure out what the optimal pick is.
But all the other games aren't easy to win...Tampa hasnt played a good game yet to take them...cincy is a decent pick but browns could upset them today
Man I wish ATL lost. Only 1 person in my 10 person league had them, but would've been great to see another favorite lose...so close.
Tampa crushed. Good on them.
League down to 6. 3 had Pitts, and 1 had SF.
Looking at NYG for next week. Them and Pats are likely going to be the biggest favorites and most of my pool has already used Giants.