Help out an NFL newbie?

[His Dudeness]

Hi, I'd appreciate any advice from people who know what the *$*#$ they are doing in an ESPN football pool - one year, standard cats, head to head, 12 teams. I followed some advice I read on-line and drafted an elite QB, TE and then loaded up on WR and RB. I think Jennings is injured now.

Wondering if I should be making a waiver move or two. My current team is below. A few guys available on the waiver wire: RB Morris (Was), Keiland Williams (Det), WR Danny Amendola (STL), Doug Baldwin (Sea), QB Sanchez (NYJ) Jake Locker (Ten), Ponder (Min). LaDainian Tomlinson is available and I think he's a free agent - any chance he signs? Any of these guys worth swapping for someone on my current team? Or should I focus on getting the best kicker and D/ST available for week 2?

Thanks for any input!

My current team:

QB: Brees
TE: Graham
RB: Doug Martin (TB), Rashad Jennings (Jac), Willis McGahee (Den), Mark Ingram (NO), Taiwan Jones (Oak), Kendall Hunter (SF)
WR: Brandon Marshall (Chi), Eric Decker (Den), Torrey Smith (Bal), Sidney Rice (Sea), Kendall Wright (Ten), Randall Cobb (GB)
D/ST: Packers
K: Jason Hanson

[AldoWeldon]

Hi, I'd appreciate any advice from people who know what the *$*#$ they are doing in an ESPN football pool - one year, standard cats, head to head, 12 teams. I followed some advice I read on-line and drafted an elite QB, TE and then loaded up on WR and RB. I think Jennings is injured now.

Wondering if I should be making a waiver move or two. My current team is below. A few guys available on the waiver wire: RB Morris (Was), Keiland Williams (Det), WR Danny Amendola (STL), Doug Baldwin (Sea), QB Sanchez (NYJ) Jake Locker (Ten), Ponder (Min). LaDainian Tomlinson is available and I think he's a free agent - any chance he signs? Any of these guys worth swapping for someone on my current team? Or should I focus on getting the best kicker and D/ST available for week 2?

Thanks for any input!

My current team:

QB: Brees
TE: Graham
RB: Doug Martin (TB), Rashad Jennings (Jac), Willis McGahee (Den), Mark Ingram (NO), Taiwan Jones (Oak), Kendall Hunter (SF)
WR: Brandon Marshall (Chi), Eric Decker (Den), Torrey Smith (Bal), Sidney Rice (Sea), Kendall Wright (Ten), Randall Cobb (GB)
D/ST: Packers
K: Jason Hanson

Well your first mistake was waiting so long on RB. This season if you don't take an RB in one of the first 2 rounds it's near impossible to win your league. Whoever wrote that article didn't know what they were talking about... TEs are a dime a dozen this season and so are QBs (although Graham is essentially a WR1 so you did fine by getting him, and Brees is elite so it's impossible to fault you for taking that combo). That's just a real tough drafting strategy because everyone else is going RBs early on so if you don't take one then you don't really have much to choose from.

Your RBs are clearly your weak spot. It's dangerous having a rookie as your RB1. Martin/McGahee will be your starters week-to-week, and while they won't be awful, they won't keep up with the RBs the rest of your league has. I don't really like McGahee that much this season. I'd pick up Moreno so you can handcuff him to McGahee though. Kendall Hunter looked great this week, so if Gore goes down/starts to struggle, you could have a nice player on your hands.

Your WRs are solid. Marshall is in for a monster year and Decker should be good. Torrey Smith is very intriguing this season (had some huge games last year and Flacco should pass a bit more this season so he could become a very valuable receiver) and I think Kendall Wright is a really good player.

I'm not a fan of any of the guys you listed, so I wouldn't pick any of them up. Other than the hole at RB, your team looks pretty good. Solid WRs and Brees/Graham will give you a chance to win every week. I wouldn't change kickers, Hanson is a good option all year long. Packers D is eh, so yea it wouldn't really hurt to play the wire to find a good matchup for week 2. However, that's a risky game-- I did that and used Buffalo against the Jets this week, and that got me negative points. At least with Green Bay, you know they will win lots of games and score lots of points, so that means teams will have to pass against them, and that should lead to INTs for you.

If Torrey Smith puts together some big games and Cobb continues to play like he did in week 1 (don't expect it, though- Rodgers gets everyone involved), then I would try and package the two of them with a guy like Hunter or Ingram to try and get a top RB and a second tier WR. Ideally you want Martin to be your RB2, so if you can find a way to get an RB1 without trading Graham or Marshall, I would do it. Unfortunately, I don't see how you can win your league with Martin as your RB1. The thing is, though, starting RBs will constantly be getting hurt, so if you can be a waiver hawk and scoop up the backups before anyone else does (if they are still available) then that could solve your problem. DeMarco Murray was probably undrafted in all leagues last year and the guys that picked him up got a top RB for free. There will undoubtedly be another back like that this season-- do your best to get him!


PS what do you start each week? 2 WRs or 3 WRs? 1 flex? If you do start a flex, is it W/R or W/R/T?

[Pengwin7]

It's hard to evaluate your team without seeing your starting roser requirements.
In a league where you must start 2RB, you are in big trouble.
In a league where you only must start 1RB, not so bad.

If you start 2RB, you should probably consider making a play for this Morris guy... though I honestly don't know anything beyond him having a big day yesterday.

[His Dudeness]

Hi, thanks for the responses. Sucks to read the my RB situation is so dire. We start 1QB, 1 TE, 2 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex (can be RB/WR/TE), 1 K and 1 D/ST.

Lots of good thoughts but I'm struggling to know what to do still.

I do have 6 RB (and 6 WR) so maybe I should be looking to drop a WR and pick up another RB to give more chance than I have a surprising pop from one of my RB?

That Moreno guy is available, in addition to the other guys I listed (Morris etc).

Here's a more complete list of RB that are available on waivers:

David Wilson (NYG), Alfred Morris (Was), Mike Goodson (Oak), Dexter McCluster (KC), Danny Woodhead (NE), Jahvid Best (Det), LaMichael James (SF), Delone Carter (Ind), Knowshon Moreno (Den), Ronnie Hillman (Den), Tim Hightower (FA), Jason Snelling (Atl), Bernard Pierce (Bal), Lamar Miller (Mia), Dion Lewis (Phi), Montario Hardesty (Cle), Le'Ron McClain (SD), Alex Green (GB), Chris Rainey (Pit), Keiland Williams (Det), Leon Washington (Sea)

[Rad64]

First of all, don't panic. Your roster isn't too bad.

There are quite a few different draft strategies, so don't get hung up on not drafting a back in the first few rounds. The tried and true draft 2 RB's in your first three picks is NOT a great strategy any more IMHO. The top WR's are worth just as much (including TE's Graham and Gronkowski).

Brees is a monster, well worth a first round pick. Graham is worth a WR1, playing at the TE spot is a huge bonus. Great late 2nd round pick. Most TE's are going to get you 5 points a week where Graham can net you 15.

Martin looks good. He's the man in TB and your RB1. He should be a 1000 yd back. If he doesn't turn out well, you could be in for a bit of trouble. (I drafted him as my #3 behind McFadden and Charles)

Not a big McGahee fan, more of low end RB2. The other picks are all begging for the starters to get hurt.

Your receiving core is average. Marshall is going to be a solid WR1, but Decker/Smith are better WR3/4 options. I would be spending my time looking for WR's at this point. For example, I just picked up rookie Stephen Hill of the Jets. These are the guys you look for. If they don't pan out after a few games, send them back to the wire.

I'm basing this on a standard start of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF.

Another good idea is to keep your eyes on starting QB's. If you happen to have a couple of quality starters, you can pry away a WR or RB later in the season when a QB goes down.

Kickers and Def, I like to play the matchups if I don't have a top tier guy. Feel free to drop these two weekly.


**Another tip is to watch for guys coming back later in the season from injury. They usually are not drafted.

[His Dudeness]

Thanks. That's some great general advice and tips. Nobody has really suggested a specific move, so I take that to mean that the guys available on waivers (that I've listed) aren't really clear upgrades for my team. i.e. no obvious moves to make.

Taking a closer look at WR available on waivers, here are a few that had really good week 1:

Kevin Ogletree, DAL, WR
Stephen Hill, NYJ, WR
Jeremy Kerley, NYJ, WR

And RB:

Morris and McCluster (KC)

Advice from anyone on whether I should drop anyone to pick up one or two of these guys? Hoping for some specific advice on which of these guy(s) to drop and which guy(s) to pick up?

[ynotzz]

My current team:

QB: Brees
TE: Graham
RB: Doug Martin (TB), Rashad Jennings (Jac), Willis McGahee (Den), Mark Ingram (NO), Taiwan Jones (Oak), Kendall Hunter (SF)
WR: Brandon Marshall (Chi), Eric Decker (Den), Torrey Smith (Bal), Sidney Rice (Sea), Kendall Wright (Ten), Randall Cobb (GB)
D/ST: Packers
K: Jason Hanson

I agree with this being a below average draft when you not only start 2 RB's but have a Flex spot as well.

People have gone crazy and overestimate the value of those top TE's. If a TE averaged 15 points per match he would get 240fps. That CAN of course happen, but to project anything above 200 is crazy. Both Gronk and Graham (and maybe Hernandez) are capable of breaking 200, but I would rather project 185 and take anything above as a bonus. That is about 11.5 fps per round.

Go to your leagues list of available players and switch to the 2011 season + include all players and have a look. What seperates the TE position is that even though those top 3 guys will get 40-50 more fantasypoints than the average guy in that position, you can actually pick up average players that will get 100-115 points from the waiver after the draft is done. If you have two of them and play the matchups you can probably squeeze out 2-3 more fantasypoints per week. That should turn a duo of waiver fodder TE's into one 130-160 point guy.

McGahee should be your flex starter and you need another good RB for your RB2 spot. I would dangle Graham plus a guy like Sid Rice and see what you can get. Maybe you can get something like Stephen Jackson and Jared Cook (TE) in return. I'd even consider CJ Spiller right now. Then you drop Taiwan or Kendall Wright to pick up another TE. I wouldnt be surprised if guys like Mercedes Lewis and/or Owen Daniels is available.

So what would this do for your lineup? Lets project Graham to 210 points just for fun and CJ Spiller to 200 (about where top 15 RB's will end up).

Previous lineup, ignoring positions that wont change starters:
TE: Graham - 230 points = 13.1 fps per round
RB2: McGahee - 180 points = 11.3
Flex: Ingram/Smith/Rice combo - 160 = 10.0
WR2: Decker - 140 = 8.8
Total = 43.2

After trade:
TE: Cook/Daniels combo - 145 points = 9.1
RB2: SJax/Spiller etc - 200 points = 12.5
Flex: McGahee - 180 = 11.3
WR2: combo Decker/Smith/Rice - 155 = 9.7
Total = 42.6

But that is lower??? Yes, but which scenario is the more realistic and safe one? It is much easier to get to that score with a starting running back like McGahee as your flex starter than playing the matchups with Ingram/Smith/Rice. There is also a bigger chance of your RB going way beyond 200 than those lower tier RB's and medium tiers WR's going much past 160. So the upside is much bigger.

Aaaaaand this free's up more of your WR's so you can now try to package Decker + Smith for a true WR1 like AJ Green, Percy Harvin etc. That would free up even more space to pick up some of those backup RB's like Wilson.

Oh and pick up Morris asap. You never know....maybe he is the real deal.

[ynotzz]

btw is Mendenhall available? If yes you'd better hurry up and get him.

[His Dudeness]

I have to say as a newbie on the football boards that the dynamic is a lot different than the hockey boards. I'm asking should I pick up on waivers any of A, B or C and if so who should I drop? And I'm getting a ton of advice about how I went awry in my draft strategy and I should make this trade or that - interesting and useful but not what I'm asking at the current time.

Mendenhall is not available. Thanks for the advice to pick up Morris but who do I drop?

I'm actually leaning towards picking up Ogletree and giving him a shot.

I'd really appreciate some advice about who you'd drop on my team if you were to make a waiver move (for an Ogletree or a Morris) - unless I missed it nobody has given me advice on that.

[ynotzz]

well, maybe it has something to do with your original post.

"Help out an NFL newbie?
Hi, I'd appreciate any advice from people who know what the *$*#$ they are doing "

You then proceed to ask a question, but people with more experience recognise that what you are asking wont fix your team. The problem is much more complicated and you have gotten really good advices here.

No, picking up Ogletree is not a good move. He would be behind Marshall, Decker, Smith, Rice and maybe even Cobb. Is he better than Kendall Wright? Maybe, but not enough to waste a waiver pick. Ogletree is worthless to you.

[ynotzz]

I would strongly consider to just drop Jennings as he picked up a small injury and opened the door for MJD to get his job back. You have a better shot at getting a starting running back by picking up a guy like Wilson (NYG), who is a good running back behind an injury prone starter.

So, my first two moves with this team would be to drop Jennings+Kendall Wright and pick up Wilson + Morris.

[Rad64]

Don't undervalue Graham.

If you do take a look at last years rankings ( I just took a quick look at Yahoo), there were only 4 WR's with higher points, 1 TE with more and 6 RB's.

Basically, a top 12 player outside of the quarterbacks. I doubt if you are going to be able to get a top 12 player (WR or RB) for Graham/Rice. Let the other guys roll the 100 pt TE's.

I'd pick up Hill and Ogletree. The Dallas receivers are not the healthiest bunch, might be good for spot duty. I would drop Cobb and Jones at this point.

[ynotzz]

I doubt if you are going to be able to get a top 12 player (WR or RB) for Graham/Rice. Let the other guys roll the 100 pt TE's.

this is important though. I would much rather roll the 100 pt TE's than the 100 pt RB's....but make sure you find someone who overvalues the TE position and will give you someone like SJax that is a lock for 1k+ yards and 8+ TDs.

[AldoWeldon]

Don't pick up Hill or Ogletree. Neither will improve your team. If Ryan Carter scored a hat trick in the first game of the season, would you pick him up? How about Aaron Asham? Or Jared Boll?

Don't jump on the week 1 big performers. Your team is alright-- give it some time and see what happens. The only players worth picking up that you listed are David Wilson and Moreno. Bradshaw could go down, and Wilson has shown that he has gamebreaking talent. McGahee is getting older and Moreno could easily supplant him if given the chance. Yes it's a stretch, but guys like Hill and Ogletree are worthless to you. Don't pick them up. Morris is a good option, but Redskins back scare me. Although he did look great all preseason and week 1.

There's no sense in adding more bottom-tier receivers do your roster. Are you ever going to start Hill or Ogletree over Decker or Smith? No-- never. It's bad to ruin your waiver priority on guys who don't have the potential to make a difference in your starting lineup. You might as well load up on the guys that have a chance to become number 1 on the depth chart for their team. A Jets WR will not help you one bit, and Ogletree is probably just the flavor of the week. Don't trade Brees/Graham/Marshall/Martin. If you can get a solid RB by trading anyone else, I would pursue that.

[ynotzz]

Basically, a top 12 player outside of the quarterbacks. I doubt if you are going to be able to get a top 12 player (WR or RB) for Graham/Rice. Let the other guys roll the 100 pt TE's.

I really want to make sure you think this through. There are GUARANTEED free agent TE's that can get you 7-8 points per week, while RBs are scarce. Is it better to get 13 from TE and 4 from RB than 8 from TE and 11 from RB? Of course not.

ONLY trade Graham if you can get a pretty good RB, but if that can be done I would jump on it. Package in someone like Rice or Cobb if you have to, since they are of no use to you anyways.