Predict my draft order!

[PocketRockets05]

PPR League: 1 point per reception; Each team keeps 2 players

Players not available via draft and being kept:
QB (4) - Rodgers, Brady, Vick, Romo
RB (11) - Foster, Rice, McCoy, Forte, AP, Mathews, MJD, C.Johnson, Charles, S.Jackson, Gore
WR (8) - C.Johnson, Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Welker, R.White, Bryant, Jennings, Bowe
TE (1) - Gronkowski

Draft Order, along with assets on team at time of pick, as well as stuff I know on each drafter
1. Team 8 Andre Johnson+Bowe (known for taking a QB early)
2. Team 12 Chris Johnson+Charles
3. Team 6 Romo+Bryant (loves McFadden)
4. Team 4 Vick+AP (I know he's taking a RB here)
5. Team 3 Gore+R.White
6. Team 8 Andre Johnson+Bowe+1st overall
7. Team 9 Jennings+Welker (95% he's taking a RB here)
8. Team 6 Romo+Bryant+3rd overall
9. Team 11 Rice+Forte (I know he wants Stafford or Newton, but if one isn't there he's going best WR)
10. Team 10 McCoy+Gronkowski (known for waiting to draft his QB)
11. Team 2 Mathews+Fitzgerald (known for waiting to draft his QB)
12. Team 8 Andre Johnson+Bowe+1st overall+6th overall
13. Team 1 Foster+Calvin

I am TEAM 1 and as you all can see I don't pick until pick #13. I'm curious who you'd all pick in the spots prior to my pick as well as at my pick?

Here are notable available names who I think could fall inside the top 13: (might've missed people - hopefully not)
QB - Brees, Stafford, Newton, Rivers
RB - McFadden, Murray, Richardson, Lynch, Bradshaw, Sproles, Turner, F.Jackson
WR - B.Marshall, J.Nelson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, M.Wallace, H.Nicks, V.Cruz, P.Harvin, S.Smith(Car), Austin, V.Jax, B.Lloyd, Maclin
TE - Graham, Gates

Also, I have been offered Michael Vick for my 13th overall pick, and have declined the offer. Just wondering what you all think about my decision to decline that deal.

Thanks for all your insight - it is much appreciated!

[PocketRockets05]

Here is my guess as to how my draft order might go, and who I might get:
1. Team 8 Andre Johnson+Bowe (known for taking a QB early) + Brees
2. Team 12 Chris Johnson+Charles + Stafford
3. Team 6 Romo+Bryant (loves McFadden) + McFadden
4. Team 4 Vick+AP (I know he's taking a RB here) + Turner
5. Team 3 Gore+R.White + Newton
6. Team 8 Andre Johnson+Bowe+Brees + Murray - needs a RB, Cowboys fan
7. Team 9 Jennings+Welker (95% he's taking a RB here) + Lynch
8. Team 6 Romo+Bryant+McFadden + Graham
9. Team 11 Rice+Forte (I know he wants Stafford or Newton, but if one isn't there he's going best WR) + AJ Green
10. Team 10 McCoy+Gronkowski (known for waiting to draft his QB) + H.Nicks
11. Team 2 Mathews+Fitzgerald (known for waiting to draft his QB) + Bradshaw
12. Team 8 Andre Johnson+Bowe+Brees+Murray + Richardson
13. Team 1 Foster+Calvin + ??? - Sproles/Julio Jones/Nelson/Cruz/Marshall/Lloyd/Wallace/Rivers

At my pick (don't pick again until pick #33 - round 3 pick 9), I want to make this pick a guy who is least likely to be a bust and most likely to provide me with consistent performance. I feel since my keepers are extremely strong in Foster+Megatron I don't have to really go with a homerun hitter here with my first pick (that can be saved for later), and more so need to get a guy who will give me the most consistent production.

Anyway, I'm really thinking of going with Sproles here as I see him being the last available back who is guaranteed to get his touches/receptions (he was ranked #4 in my league last year amongst backs) - but then again there's also Ingram/Thomas to worry about. If I wait until pick #33 to get my 2nd back (we start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR, 1TE) then I'm not sure what will be there.

Or, if (well, not if...a couple of these guys will definitely be there at #13) a top end wideout like like Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Marshall, Wallace, Harvin, S.Smith(Car), B.Lloyd(bank on McDaniels & Brady), Cruz falls to my pick then I'm thinking maybe I take one of those 7 guys as I also think none of those guys will be available 20 picks later at #33 for me, and then just say a prayer on a RB like Martin, F.Jackson(maybe people will rank him lower because of his previous injury), I.Redman, R.Bush, Green-Ellis, Greene, as opposed to going Sproles here, and then drafting in the next tier of WR's. If I do go WR with my pick and those guys I listed above are all available I think the order in which I take them should be: Julio Jones, Nelson, Cruz, Lloyd, Marshall, Wallace, etc.

Or, lastly - I could just go QB and take Rivers here (or do that Vick trade whereby I trade this pick for Vick), and guarantee myself one of the better QB's, as I also THINK guys like Rivers, Eli, etc. will be gone come pick #33 and not sure how I feel rolling a weak QB against teams every week - feel it's much easier throughout the year to add a stud RB/WR from the waiver wire as opposed to a stud QB. Last year I drafted Stafford for great mid-round value, but I'm just not sure if a QB like that is available this year (maybe Peyton, RGIII, or Freeman)

Let me know what you all think - thanks

[Dyv]

I'd trade that pick for Vick

You can patch together RB later - just get 4 or 5 of them in the mid rounds and play match ups each week. Depth at RB is not at all a bad thing if you can't have the superstars (most people won't)

[rainman]

I agree with Dyv too. Make the Vick deal. Even if he plays 13-14 games this year, he'll out-point Rivers(looks like best available) at #13.

[TheWhale]

I would take Julio Jones. Vick does offer great upside if he can stay healthy. But I think you can wait on a QB and end up with a guy like Ryan with your next pick. I have a feeling that Julio is going to be a top 5 WR this year.

Having said all that, it DMC or Murray fall to you I would take one of them before Julio.

[PocketRockets05]

Thanks for the advice everyone!! Really appreciate it

Unfortunately the other GM got cold feet on the Vick deal and has now pulled out on his offer.

So, now I'm just trying to figure out who I should take at #13.

In what order would you draft these players for this year based on my league settings?

--- Tier A ---
Brees
Stafford
Newton
Graham
--- Tier B ---
McFadden
Murray
Lynch
AJ Green
Sproles
Turner
Nicks
Richardson
Julio Jones - this would be my pick: 13th overall (not so sure Jones will fall this far though)
Brandon Marshall
--- Tier C ---
Bradshaw
F.Jackson
S.Smith (Car)
Victor Cruz
Jordy Nelson
Mike Wallace
Victor Cruz
Phillip Rivers
--- Tier D ---
Brandon Lloyd
Percy Harvin
Miles Austin
Maclin
Antonio Brown
Colston
Gates
Helu

Thanks again everyone for your responses

[Dyv]

Thanks for the advice everyone!! Really appreciate it

Unfortunately the other GM got cold feet on the Vick deal and has now pulled out on his offer.

So, now I'm just trying to figure out who I should take at #13.

In what order would you draft these players for this year based on my league settings?

--- Tier A ---
Brees
Stafford
Newton
Graham
--- Tier B ---
McFadden
Murray
Lynch
AJ Green
Sproles
Turner
Nicks
Richardson
Julio Jones - this would be my pick: 13th overall (not so sure Jones will fall this far though)
Brandon Marshall
--- Tier C ---
Bradshaw
F.Jackson
S.Smith (Car)
Victor Cruz
Jordy Nelson
Mike Wallace
Victor Cruz
Phillip Rivers
--- Tier D ---
Brandon Lloyd
Percy Harvin
Miles Austin
Maclin
Antonio Brown
Colston
Gates
Helu

Thanks again everyone for your responses

Of those players listed, given you already have 2 WR on board, I think your tier rankings for A & B are very solid. I'd drop Turner out of there, though since you already have an aging Andre Johnson, you're also making this pick to get your 'other' keeper for the future. I think if you drop Turner down a tier and move Jordy Nelson up a tier you'll be in good shape. I also, personally, wouldn't take Helu with the rest of that crowd. I'd drop him off that list completely. I'd also drop Fred Jackson a tier