Draft Strategy...

[jimslam]

Hi Guys,

Looking for some opinions...

I am in an 8 team league, categories in signature.

We do a new live draft every year and we draw names for draft order regardless of standings the previous year.

This year we have a GM who traded for some draft picks from the previous season. He now owns 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders. That translates to 4 picks of the top 16 players. (has no 8th or 10th round picks)

This gives him a nice advantage of course, but is there any strategy i can use to try to combat him here? I think i am decent at drafting and figure i'll just have to roll with it, but i was wondering if there are any "out of the box" ideas...

Thanks!

[Pengwin7]

Advice: Do NOT try to adjust your strategy to mess up this other guy. Draft your own game.


General advice:
1) Start your draft by taking elite forwards that give you G/A/P/PPP/GWG/SOG. I'd suggest taking elite forwards with 6 of your first 7 rounds. (You have 8 starting F).

2) Draft one solid goalie around round 4/5. Draft your other goalie in round 8. Don't reach. 8-team league is VERY shallow. Overpaying (overdrafting) a goalie is a major mistake. An 8-team league x 2G each is only 16G. You could pick your goalies at the very end (#15/#16) and still end up with a tandem of Kiprusoff/Varlamov... which would still give you victory in GAA/SV% in 30-40% of weeks... just by stat fluctuations.

3) Prior to round 9, you'll have 6F/2G. From here, I'd take the BPA... even if it's another forward or another goalie.

4) What... it's round 10 and I have no defense. That's fine. You've got 3 categories that you can win EVERY weekly with smart drafting: HITS/BLK/PIM. I did a league last year and went 20-2 throughout the 22 week schedule in these categories. It's very simple. Draft a 200 hit/200 Blk defensemen that gets 20pts instead of going after the 30pt defensemen that only gets 100 hit/ 100 Blk. Francois Beauchemin, Dan Girardi, Brent Seabrook, Mark Stuart, etc... and these guys will EASILY be there in Round 10/11/12. Don't worry about trying to get SOG or PPP from your D. If you draft elite forwards first, you'll have plenty of SOG/PPP there.

5) End the draft with dedicated HIT/PIM forwards. Steve Ott is a monster here. If he's available in the 3rd or 4th last round, take him.

6) Do not chase SHP. Don't put in an ounce of effort trying to win SHP. It's not worth it.

7) Your bench should be 1F/1D/1G. You want a 3rd goalie to help you go after W/SV. You want an extra D to ensure you win BLK. You want a HIT-special.ist forward to ensure you win HIT.

***If you follow this advice (and barring injuries), I can assure you you'll finish top half of the league... that is... unless all your leaguemates draft this way too.

BONUS: If Jonas Hiller is on the board as your 2nd or 3rd goalie option, grab him. Anaheim has an off-night schedule this year. This means that you will rarely have an NHL night where all three of your goalies are playing and you have to bench one. Benching players (same night playing) is a loss of value.

GOOD LUCK & have fun.

(Draft Strategerie. I've added those words so I can refind this thread in the future when people ask.

[bondon]

Pengwin gives you some great advice here. I don't understand why you'd want to go out of your way to screw up the other guy lol, why not just focus on trying to build a team that will beat ALL 7 GMs in your league.

Being in a shallow league like this, goaltending and defense will be out there in the later rounds. Focus on getting high end forwards and filling out your team with good multi-cat value in the later rounds. Another guy I like to add onto Pengwin's suggestion of Ott is David Clarkson. Probably won't score 30 goals again like last season but has a lot of value in PIM/Hits/SOG etc. and comes from the RW

[jimslam]

thanks for this Pengwin7!

so you would ignore a Karlsson (ott) or Letang if available in rounds 3-5?

[jimslam]

Pengwin gives you some great advice here. I don't understand why you'd want to go out of your way to screw up the other guy lol, why not just focus on trying to build a team that will beat ALL 7 GMs in your league.

Being in a shallow league like this, goaltending and defense will be out there in the later rounds. Focus on getting high end forwards and filling out your team with good multi-cat value in the later rounds. Another guy I like to add onto Pengwin's suggestion of Ott is David Clarkson. Probably won't score 30 goals again like last season but has a lot of value in PIM/Hits/SOG etc. and comes from the RW

thanks...my intention was not to screw up the other guy, it was just to narrow his advantage a little, and thanks for the advice! much appreciated...

[kevinsrangers]

yup , high scoring defensmens points fluctuate way too much from season to season.

[3rtpaper]

thanks for this Pengwin7!

so you would ignore a Karlsson (ott) or Letang if available in rounds 3-5?

I absolutely would avoid Karlsson and probably Letang.

G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK
W, GA, GAA, SV, SHO

2-C, 1-LW, 1-RW, 3-D, 4-F, 2-G, 3-BN
The fact that your leauge counts BLK's and you only have 3 starting defensemen is reason enough to avoid Karlsson. The guy doesn't block shots and I would be very surprised if he puts up 70 points this year. He will get his points but I would have to go with a forward and let some one else pay his price tag.

Letang will at least block shots for you but 8 teams with 3 starting defensemen = 24 defensemen.. not worth going after a guy who was injured for a large part of last year.. there will be a lot of solid defensemen avaliable to you later.

[rataylor22]

Basically agree with everything already said and not much to add. I would completely avoid defensemen, points production year to year is way to volatile. Glad you posted this, Pengwin actually gave you a few suggestions that might help my draft coming up

[iamlilc]

I'm surprised how few players are on each team since your league is only 8 teams - there will be a ton of good players left.

Like others have said, go for top end forwards first. With only 3D and 2G to be filled, there will be lots of good ones left in the mid-late rounds. However, once goalies start to get picked, make sure you don't end up with an average number 1. Having at least 1 if not 2 top end goalies are pretty key to winning 1-year leagues from my experience.

[Flyer Fan]

I think Pengwin7 and Bondon pretty much nailed this with some great advice.

The one thing I'll add is that draft position can be a big boost, multiple picks can be a big boost, ...but the single most important factor in determining the success of any draft is preparation.

You may not have more picks, or better picks, but you can be better prepared.

That means in addition to having a roster strategy, and a draft plan for addressing it, also examine each position, break it down into tiers(1.Elite, 2. Above average, 3. Average, 4. Below average w/upside, 5. high risk).

Take the time to make sure you place each player in the proper tier, then rank each player within that tier. (Personally, I sometimes include players in more than one tier, and then I'll put the tiers side by side and adjust them up and down, but allowing for some overlap, ...but I enjoy the preparation part so I go a little nuts with it )

One of the reasons I do this, is that it helps me to build a balanced roster that's got a mix of proven players, riskier players, and potential without winding up with a team comprised of too many of one type,

Some gambles are worthwhile, but it helps me keep track of how many gambles I'm taking, nabs for me those players that tend to "slip through the cracks", and helps me easily keep track of how many of that particular type of player is still available, and whether I can afford to wait another round and get a very similar player etc...

And another I like to do after I compile my list (which is obviously based on Dobber's guide, and the info I get from the guys on this website), I like to take a look at what the mainstream publications and websites like THN, McKeens, CBS etc have to say.

If I see a player being touted as a "breakout candidate", or expected have a great year, etc I know that those players are going to be bumped up on
a lot of peoples lists, and will probably go earlier than they should, so I avoid reaching for them.

Conversely, If I see "bad" info or a player that had a poor season due to injuries, or who's projections in these places is on the low side, ...then I know it's a player that's likely to be pushed down everyone's draft lists, and will be bargain for me that I can probably get a round or two later than where I have him ranked.

That strategy probably depends on what kind of league you're in, ...I'm in one league where the THN is the source most of the guys prepare from, and I'm in a CBS league where most of the guys seem to put a lot of weight into the CBS projected stats.

[letangerang58]

That means in addition to having a roster strategy, and a draft plan for addressing it, also examine each position, break it down into tiers(1.Elite, 2. Above average, 3. Average, 4. Below average w/upside, 5. high risk).

That's a good idea. I think I will use that system in my draft spreadsheets this season.

[jimslam]

All great advice! Thanks!