Alexander Semin - a comprehensive analysis

[doulos]

Jeff,

This is one of the best hockey articles I have read in quite some time. Simple phenomenal stuff. Great work!!

[letangerang58]

What is Corsi Percentage?

...Semin may be signing with the Pens.

You know I originally heard he may sign with the Pens this was my first reaction. But I've grown on the idea. After all there aren't exactly many options left for us. As long as we can sign him for a short term and for a decent cap hit I have no problem with him joining the Pens. I believe he is a righty and that is something the Penguins sorely need in their top 6. Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Kunitz and Dupuis are all lefties.

[angus]

What is Corsi Percentage?


.

The ratio of all shots directed at the opponents net compared to an own team's net while a player is on the ice.

Corsi Percentage below 50 - when a player is on the ice, more shots are directed at his net than the other net (if he faces tough competition, that could explain it, if not, he generally isn't a good possession player).

Above 50 - the opposite holds true.

[Tanzer]

Awsome article! Even made me change my mind on my keeper list. I have to keep 3 of 4 fwd in points only league. I have Malkin, Datsyuk and Zetterberg as a lock. But now I really think keep Semin instead of Zett... ( IF... Pitts or Det land him )

[Pengwin7]

Stellar collection of statistics.
I absolutely love the effort you put into this article... but I'm going to play devil's advocate because (from watching Semin) there are a lot of things this guy does that won't be picked up in the statistics.

Painting the Stats:
1. Semin + teammates. Yes, Semin is an offensive player and he should increase the overall scoring of players around him. This is a given and I think you spent too much time showing an obvious.

2. Semin without Ovechkin/Backstrom. Still does well by +/-... true. I really don't remember much here about another obvious: that teams will match their top defensive units against OV/Backs and that leaves Semin with easier defensive match-ups.

3. SOGs. Like Kovalchuk, Semin is a big of a puck hog. Yes, he's got the skills do to it and fires pucks from everywhere, so sure... his shot rate in dangerous zone will be high. And his shot differential (when building in the fact that he won't be marked by opponents top competition) will seem great.

Beyond the Stats:
1. Semin is like a bad shag, sort of all over the place without his partners knowing how to adapt or what to expect. Average-tier players have never found good chemistry with him. That's the difference between a Datsyuk or a Sedin or a MSL. Guys that play with these other guys can learn their games and know the crafty moves that are coming... what passes to expect. Nobody can read Semin... that's great for defenders, but equally bad for his own linemates.

2. Shift changes. Watch this guy change. He'll change at shitty times, often coming back down ice. Players that grew up playing the game "right" know that you change on a dump or with puck possession. Semin doesn't do this. Teammates chew him for things like this. It's annoying. In the real-hockey-world (I know a lot of us don't live there), shit likes this is unnerving. Semin could rush the puck, take a shot on net that goes wide, dog it back, and change with the other team attacking. If the other team spends 15 seconds in the attacking zone and then scores, Semin doesn't get a minus because he's sitting on the pine, sucking wind.

3. Penalty killing. Statistically, Semin's past few seasons of PK-work "look" fantastic. 0GF, 1GA in 11-12, 2GF, 4GA in 10-11, 3GF, 3GA in 09-10.

This part got me the most:
Over the last four years, Semin has also proven himself to be an excellent penalty killer. His 4.2 goals against per 60 minutes is in the top 10 lowest among forwards during that period, and he has kept opponents to 44 shots against per 60 when he has been on the ice, 26th best.

But how much actual killing time did he spend there:
2009-2010: 70min (9th among Capital forwards)
2010-2011: 61min (8th among Capital forwards)
2011-2012: 1min... yes just 1minute of PK time... for the entire season.

Let's think... if you are the 8th or 9th penalty-killing forward on your team, which part of the penalty are you killing?
The first 40 second shift... no.
The second 40 second shift... no.
Perhaps the last 10 seconds... yes, that's probably where these players get their time.

And in the last two years of playoffs, Semin has killed a grand total of 4 seconds of PK time. Four seconds. Two different playoffs, two different coaches... 4 seconds of PK time. To be honest, if a guy is going to get 4 seconds of PK time in his last 23 playoff games - there should be absolutely NO accolades for his PK game.

The point of your article seems to look at Semin and justify that he is a quality overall NHL player. You've located some numbers that work to your argument while completely skating by some of the statistics that prove a lessened value (like only 11 PPP in his 194min of PP time last year).

I'm very critical of lengthy articles that pick statistical evaluators that only support the intended interpretation of the message.

Overall, I'd definitely give you an A++ for your work & effort on this one.
As for making a fair evaluation of this guy's full game... ugh, you skipped a lot.

[3rtpaper]

Great article, my only problem is I don't really believe in corsi all that much.. way to many other factors in play to make it relevant on its own.. most importantly offensive zone vs defensive zone starts %. If the guy see's 55% or more of his shifts starting in the offensive zone it will have a great impact on corsi.
All this being said I don't really view Semin as a poor defensive player but I wouldnt view him as a good defensive player either.

I like the 90/10 analogy a lot and it makes perfect sense in this case, unfortunitely for Semin his "10" is what a lot of GM's, coaches, etc view as somewhere closer to 40% of hockey.

Torts probably views the "heart/blocked shot/full effort" 70% (pulling #'s out of the air but you get the point.

All this being said Semin shoud have multiple offers from teams starting at 5 million and going up.

Proof:
Leino: 4.5 mil
Grabovski: 5.5 mil
Connoley: 4.75 mil
This list could go on forever.. Semin is at least productive and can do 1 very important thing... sell tickets and make more casual fans watch to see what he can do.

[Ross The Boss Palmer]

Found this Semin interview from May 15th, may have been posted already somewhere. I enjoyed it.

http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks...ey/#more-34869



Found it from this article's comment section. Enjoyed this article a lot as well.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...ents#107578090



I seriously hope someone signs Semin soon (alliteration... nice!).

[angus]

Stellar collection of statistics.
I absolutely love the effort you put into this article... but I'm going to play devil's advocate because (from watching Semin) there are a lot of things this guy does that won't be picked up in the statistics.

Painting the Stats:
1. Semin + teammates. Yes, Semin is an offensive player and he should increase the overall scoring of players around him. This is a given and I think you spent too much time showing an obvious.

2. Semin without Ovechkin/Backstrom. Still does well by +/-... true. I really don't remember much here about another obvious: that teams will match their top defensive units against OV/Backs and that leaves Semin with easier defensive match-ups.

3. SOGs. Like Kovalchuk, Semin is a big of a puck hog. Yes, he's got the skills do to it and fires pucks from everywhere, so sure... his shot rate in dangerous zone will be high. And his shot differential (when building in the fact that he won't be marked by opponents top competition) will seem great.

Beyond the Stats:
1. Semin is like a bad shag, sort of all over the place without his partners knowing how to adapt or what to expect. Average-tier players have never found good chemistry with him. That's the difference between a Datsyuk or a Sedin or a MSL. Guys that play with these other guys can learn their games and know the crafty moves that are coming... what passes to expect. Nobody can read Semin... that's great for defenders, but equally bad for his own linemates.

2. Shift changes. Watch this guy change. He'll change at shitty times, often coming back down ice. Players that grew up playing the game "right" know that you change on a dump or with puck possession. Semin doesn't do this. Teammates chew him for things like this. It's annoying. In the real-hockey-world (I know a lot of us don't live there), shit likes this is unnerving. Semin could rush the puck, take a shot on net that goes wide, dog it back, and change with the other team attacking. If the other team spends 15 seconds in the attacking zone and then scores, Semin doesn't get a minus because he's sitting on the pine, sucking wind.

3. Penalty killing. Statistically, Semin's past few seasons of PK-work "look" fantastic. 0GF, 1GA in 11-12, 2GF, 4GA in 10-11, 3GF, 3GA in 09-10.

This part got me the most:
Over the last four years, Semin has also proven himself to be an excellent penalty killer. His 4.2 goals against per 60 minutes is in the top 10 lowest among forwards during that period, and he has kept opponents to 44 shots against per 60 when he has been on the ice, 26th best.

But how much actual killing time did he spend there:
2009-2010: 70min (9th among Capital forwards)
2010-2011: 61min (8th among Capital forwards)
2011-2012: 1min... yes just 1minute of PK time... for the entire season.

Let's think... if you are the 8th or 9th penalty-killing forward on your team, which part of the penalty are you killing?
The first 40 second shift... no.
The second 40 second shift... no.
Perhaps the last 10 seconds... yes, that's probably where these players get their time.

And in the last two years of playoffs, Semin has killed a grand total of 4 seconds of PK time. Four seconds. Two different playoffs, two different coaches... 4 seconds of PK time. To be honest, if a guy is going to get 4 seconds of PK time in his last 23 playoff games - there should be absolutely NO accolades for his PK game.

The point of your article seems to look at Semin and justify that he is a quality overall NHL player. You've located some numbers that work to your argument while completely skating by some of the statistics that prove a lessened value (like only 11 PPP in his 194min of PP time last year).

I'm very critical of lengthy articles that pick statistical evaluators that only support the intended interpretation of the message.

Overall, I'd definitely give you an A++ for your work & effort on this one.
As for making a fair evaluation of this guy's full game... ugh, you skipped a lot.

Devil's advocate - like it. Would you be interested in joining me for some columns this summer? I always enjoy writing from two different perspectives.

I wasn't trying to make a "fair evaluation." I wanted to show the other side of the coin - the guy gets bashed and ripped on for a number of reasons. Some are legitimate (bad penalties, poor playoff performance) but many are not.

If you want to read about Semin's negatives, I'm sure Google has about 100,000 columns to browse. I get your point though - my piece does have an underlying bias (although I tried to make that clear from the onset).

[angus]

Jeff,

This is one of the best hockey articles I have read in quite some time. Simple phenomenal stuff. Great work!!

Thanks D. I got a lot of terrific feedback for this piece. I worked hard on it and am glad people enjoyed it.

Angus, awesome, awesome article. As a somewhat infrequent poster who is desperate for hockey to start up in October, these are the kind of articles that help get me through. Thorough analysis, great analogies and creative spin, and just an overall well written piece. I even posted it in the Colorado Avalanche forum in the hopes that by some miracle that Avs can sign him, and it got at least a couple very positive reviews already. Thanks for the great stuff.

Also, still pretty shady but Semin may be signing with the Pens. Watch the first video on the right hand side.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/

Thanks a lot - much appreciated.

[Flyer Fan]

Devil's advocate - like it. Would you be interested in joining me for some columns this summer? I always enjoy writing from two different perspectives.

I wasn't trying to make a "fair evaluation." I wanted to show the other side of the coin - the guy gets bashed and ripped on for a number of reasons. Some are legitimate (bad penalties, poor playoff performance) but many are not.

If you want to read about Semin's negatives, I'm sure Google has about 100,000 columns to browse. I get your point though - my piece does have an underlying bias (although I tried to make that clear from the onset).

Haha, after reading your article, and Pengwin's post I feel like I now know what it's like to be sitting in on an arbitration hearing: You serving in the role of the players agent, and Pengwin7 as the GM.

Maybe you guys can make your series of articles a set of faux arbitration hearings, and the rest of us can listen and then render a decision...