The back end of the Pineda/Montero Trade

[Benched]

Huge Ms fan and still really torn on the Montero Pineda trade.

IMO Ms just moved a Porche off of the autobahn for a Land Rover. Both great in their element, but not set up for the element either are moving into, but argument for a different thread.

My questions are on the minors portions of the deal. I hear that Noesi can be just as good as Pineda, and a solid # 2 starter. However, most of the literature I find on him is similar to the below excerpt from baseball prospectus from 2010-2011

Any of you prospect hounds/Yankee Homers have any better insight on this guy? Is he a #4/#5 guy or has his breaking ball come around and he could be a front line starter?

I would hate to see Ms give up two really high ceiling K machines that could thrive in the cavernous Safeco for a hitter that might not (albeit an elite hitter) and another of the many back of the rotation guys already on the roster.

Besides I just sucked up Noesi in as many fantasy leagues as I could so.... ;-)

"...The Good: One scout labeled Noesi as, “a command pitcher's command pitcher,” as his average-velocity fastball plays up do to his ability to paint all four corners with the pitch while almost never missing the strike zone. His changeup has good tumble and rates a tick above average, and he's an excellent athlete with a near picture-perfect delivery.
The Bad: Noesi will never light up a radar gun, and his game has precious little room for error. Scouts would feel more comfortable with his big-league projection if he can tighten up his fringy breaking ball.
Ephemera: Across all three levels Noesi pitched at in 2010, opposing batters facing him with runners in scoring position and two outs went 7-for-65 (.108).
Perfect World Projection: Noesi has the polish to be a solid fourth or fifth starter.
Fantasy Impact: Noesi will not be on the cover of any of the thousands of fantasy annuals at your local newstand."

[Gripnrip13]

Well done, sir.

[HOOTIE]

Seattle fan myself. I think Jack Z should have never added Campos. While only 19, he has a high ceiling. Noesi is projected to be a 4-5 starter, solid with a low ceiling. I think Jack overpaid. But i do think Monteros ceiling is higher then Pinedas.

[Benched]

But is Montero higher than Pineda's ceiling in Safeco? In a vacuum yes, but either Safeco is cursed or it was designed to favor the pitcher by way too much. Safeco might be the house that Griffey built, but it was designed for Randy Johnson.

Looking at the WARP (wins above replacement player) Pineda is already higher than Montero and in Safeco I am just not sold that Montero reaches it. Campos hurts too, but if Noesi sticks and can be even 3/4 starter then I will live with it. Who knows where we are by the time Campos gets called up.

[GoldenSeals]

Montero should play very well at Safeco. His ability to drive the ball at all spots in a spacious ballpark might not help his overall HR totals, but should be able to post some serious numbers regardless.

Pineda's flyball rate probably won't play that well in Yankee stadium but will definitely help the Yankees.

And here was my scouting report in last year's DB Prospects Report:

9. Hector Noesi, SP / RHP (TY: 336)
(1/26/1987)

It seems like he’s been in the minor league circuit awhile now thanks in part to Tommy John surgery back in 2007, but he has shown over the years that it hasn’t affected him all that much. Noesi started the year in the Florida League (A+) and made stops in the Eastern League (AA) and the International League (AAA) and went 14-7 with a 3.20 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 5.5 K/BB. Noesi has good command of a three pitch arsenal consisting of a low to mid 90’s fastball, above average curveball and good changeup. He did have more difficulty as he moved up each level, and we’d like to see his groundballs induced run a few percentages higher, but Noesi is one of those prospects you may not hear much about. That being said, he has a chance to win a spot on the major league roster with a good spring training. Otherwise expect him to begin the year in AAA.

ETA: late-2011
Upside: Aaron Harang (3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K)
Certainty (MLBer, Upside): 60%, 20%

The Mariners really took a gamble with Noesi as he's regressed over the last couple years. However prior to that Noesi posted some great numbers. Again, everyone sees it as a no doubt win for the Yankees, but everyone thought the same thing with the Morrow/League & Chavez trade.

[spitball]

i found this article from dave cameron helpful in making a draft decision on noesi;

http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/01/14...an-we-realize/