Roster Evaluation - 2nd Half

[pennman]

In First place in a 13 Team 5X5 NL Only with Rosters of (C,1b,2b,3b,ss,UT,OF,OF,OF,OF) and 8P.

My roster is: C-Lucroy, 1B-Votto, 2B-N.Walker, 3B Dobbs, UT - D.Espinosa, SS-Al. Gonzalez, M.Kemp, N.Morgan, G.Parra, W.Venable
DL - D.Wright, C.Blackmon
P- U.Jiminez, C.Carpenter (st.l), J.Jurrjens, D.Lowe, B.Norris, C.Billingsley, H.Street, D.Hernandez (Ari).
DL - J.DelaRosa

Trades: After DelaRosa went down, I traded Stanton for Ubaldo. Also Nunez for Carpenter, and Wandy Rodriguez and J.Marquis for Billingsley.

R(1st), HR(1st), RBI(2nd), SB(T-2nd), AVG(3rd), W(T-4), SV(2nd), ERA(3rd), WHIP(6th), SO(4th) - TOTAL 111.5 PTS
2nd place - 88.5, 3rd Place 87.5, 4th Place 78.5

There are some strange gaps in the categories as the third place team has punted W's and SO's (had 3 closers and 2 set up guys and that's it!!). The top three teams are pretty much 1-2-3 in each of the offensive categories.

I am pretty happy with my pitching staff, and have been moving up in W's and K's. Wouldn't mind doing one more trade to acquire a true stud type (CLee, Halladay, etc). Wondering if Kemp will keep up the second half, his power has dropped off a bit in the last month. Having Wright coming off of the DL will certainly help, and probably allow me to trade a bat for an upgrade in pitching since the offense has done fine in his absence. I'm thinking if I can get value for Kemp/Jurrjens that it'd be hard to replicate their first half stats.

If you see any points of concern I would appreciate the feedback.

Thanks.
Les Expos

[roafw]

my only concern is with your 2nd closer, but that is not ahuge deal if someone stepped in and decided to dominate sv, whip and erawith releivers, but they may be sp buyers if you have an ip cap. when teams reach that cap he may be looking for cheap sp.

your hitters are insane for a 13 team nl only league. normally you are starting guys that are platoon guys somewhere and are lucky to have 1 or 2 star hitters, you have several.
Kemp- i agree that the pace is unreasonable for the 2nd half, but i think that you will have a hard time finding value for a guy who has a very good chance at 15/15 in the second half (that is saying he falls to a 30/30 pace instead of the near 50/50 pace he has been on). i have no ideahow to assess value on that in a nl only league since guys like venable still are starters (and not bad options) and he will only get 10 hr and 20 sb this year with a terrible average.

wright- do not expect elite numbers when he returns, but expect decent numbers, and with a week off for everyone there is a chance he is back by the next real game.

There are lots of options at utility, but only a handful of 2b options, so walker or espinosa may get you a better hitter that you can play at utility. If you have an innish cap make sure you are still ok. if not then you need to swap sp for relviers

[pennman]

Thanks for your insights. We have no ip min/max and no benches and weekly transactions.

I hear your thoughts on " selling high" on kemp probably doesn't net what I need. I was thinking something like a.mccutcheon and a solid tier two starter. Or trading a 2b and a starter for an elite option.

As for closers, I have 48 saves in second and the next bunch come in at 36, 35, 30. I think street alone will keep me in decent stead and d.Hernandez was a ww pickup.

I'm not opposed to standing pat for awhile either

[roafw]

trading walker and billingsly for a 1b and betteer sp may work well. Mccutchen is a great player but you are going to lose at least 10 homers from kemp down to him (speed is similar)

what you did with saves (seeing how much you need to gain vs how much you can lose and still stay inthe same spot) is how you need to evaluate your team. If you have a 20 sb lead and are 20 from the lead, a guy like morgan loses value since he will not help you gain in sb. You may also be better off adding another speedy guy if you are entrenched in where you are in power.


The season is only half over, so no lead is safe, but you can be more comforatable with some than others.

[GoldenSeals]

I love Matt Kemp, and listed him earlier in the season as a guy that will move back into the first round this year.

While it's easy for us to say that regression will occur, I'm not so sure. He's increased his flyball percentages and line drive rates, and most importantly the HR/FB rates have been on a yearly increase.

I have him on pace for a 35/45 season. If you think you can take the short term hit on power, or even get a serviceable bat trading him, and deal with the loss of stolen bases, then perhaps now's the time to try and do a deal like you said for an Andrew McCutchen and tier two starter.

You do lose a bit in power but perhaps not as much as you think.