Reply With QuoteIf you can get Howard for that price, then do it. Great guy to sit on for the next few years
Dynasty Howard Trade
Would you give Marcum/Smoak for Howard in a dynasty league? I have good pitching and need power. Other first basemen i have right now are morneau, posey, loney. he could use pitching, his other 1b are trumbo, rizzo. he's rebuilding.
If you can get Howard for that price, then do it. Great guy to sit on for the next few years
i like just about every other 2nd round 1b out there more than howard (fielder, agon) but i think everyone else feels the same way since he is now ranked 39 on the top 150 hitters list when i am sure that in the past year he was at least top 20. He is 31, so remember he is not as young as the number of years in the majors suggests (he was only called up since he was 25 and would be lost in the rule 5 draft the next year if philly did not call him up). the power is there, but for how much longer for a giy that is already trending downward.
Smoak is a great hitter, the only knock is that he got traded to a hitters park. Marcum is 28 and just now turning into an ace. I do not trust him as an ace, and would think of him as a 2-3 fantasy pitcher (top 25-30)
Are you getting the better player now- yes
are you getting the better player long term-- no
I do this if i can win this year. In a keeper/dynasty, i would pass if i did not need a power bat to put me over the top. But that is dobber above me telling you to do it.... so he may have better advise.
It really depends on your league and team settings. If we're talking about a standard 5x5 league I'd consider it, if you can absorb the less than stellar average. Ryan Howard is a HR/RBI MACHINE.
I agree. If you can get him for what you offering, do it!
Of course it depends entirely on your roster and league settings. If you are penalized for strikeouts AND track AVG then that lessens his value. In standard leagues though I'd definitely do it unless you're worried about your team's average.
Post your setup and you'll be able to get some better feedback.
thanks guys.
he denied my offer, but if i continue to go after howard ill be a little wary of how much i throw in.
Be weary about who you trade for Howard. Yes he's having a comeback year, but with his strikeout rates, he could be this year's Adam Dunn next year. The Marcum offer was a good gamble especially if you're looking to win it, but if he rejected, just as well I say.
Keeper League:
F) N.Backstrom, E.Malkin, V.Lecavalier, P.Mueller, A.Mcdonald, B.Boyes, A.Hemsky, S.Horcoff, K.Turris, D.Jeffrey, M.Perreault, C.O'Reilly, S.Upshall, M.Erat, S.Gagne, D.Legwand D) S.Souray, M.Streit, A.Babchuk, T.Gilbert, I.Cole, J.Hillen, M.Methot G) B.Elliott, S.Varlamov, C.Ward, J.Reimer P) N.Kadri, E.Kuznetsov, S.Shirokov, V.Tarasenko, J.Blum, OEL, J.Moore, O.Pavelec
I prefer the Marcum/Smoak side, don't think that Smoak is going to be an average liability for very long but clearly he has the power and abilities to hit for a nice RBI total, around 85-90. Marcum is loving the transition to the NL and he's on a pretty good team as well. Howard is great but first base is deep and if I need pitching and a good young first baseman, I'd do this trade because it just makes sense for my team. For a surefire contender at this point it makes sense to add Howard.
I've got to disagree with dj here. Ryan Howard at his worst is still better than an average Adam Dunn. Dunn has a career .246 average. Ryan Howard's worst average ever was .251 in 08. Howard's worst SLG% to finish a year was last year's .505, just 6 thousandths of a percent behind Dunn's career SLG% of .511. Since becoming the everyday starter in 06 Ryan Howard has NEVER had fewer than 100 RBIs. Adam Dunn averages 90 some a year. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Howard will have the type of terrible year that Dunn is currently experiencing. At his very worst Howard is as good as Dunn was during an average year (.250, 30+HR, 90+RBIs), and that's absolute worst case scenario.
The other interesting thing to note about Howard is that over his career he has performed much better in the second half than in the first, and in September and October specifically. Over his career his average, the albatross that keeps everybody away from Howard, during the second half the season is a very respectable .295, and he sports a .616 SLG%. In Sept/Oct, during most H2H playoffs, he is rocking a .307AVG and .662SLG% to go along with his consistently great HR and RBI totals. If you're a contending team looking to add some pop for the second half, I think that Ryan Howard is a very smart buy, especially considering most people simply don't value him as a fantasy asset.
howard's career stats are very misleading. He did not get a half season in until he was 26 and already in his prime years. He did not spend a few years being an average major leaguer like almost everyone else called up before that is. A 22 year old still has a few years of learning and will grow, but a 26 year old will not, and will either be good now, or never make it at all.
Howard reached the majors splitting time with thome on a very good team, during the steroid era. Hitting 22 homers in a half season is very good power, but there were lots of power hitters hitting 40 homers a year untl about 07 or 08. If richie sexson could do it, then why couldn't howard. He saw lots of fastballs on a phillies team that has been good since the day he arrived. Realistically, you do not have any drag seasons at the start of his career to hurt him, so the career year where he hit 313 does not have the learning curve years to balance them out. Without those drag years, he is a career 277 hitter. So expecting anything more is crazy.
He is 32, so he is actually leaving his prime power hitting years, and actually the same age as adam dunn. If you take away the years while dunn was still in his learning curve years (pre 26 years old) he has had 5 100 rbi seasons out of 6. The only time he missed 100 was as a 26 year old and he still had 92. He also played on some bad washington and cincy teams in those years (no matter how good you are you will not get over 100 rbi on a bad team).
I mentioned richie sexson above, and i think he is a good comperable to these 2 players. they are tall, 1b power swigers with a history of high k rates. He was beast (45 dingers twice, and great rbi totals) from 26-31. That is the prime for these guys, and dunn has now left it, and i agree that howard may be leaving it next year. The only non hall of famers who continue to have 30 hr power after 32 are the crime dog, big mac, and him thome. i think most of those guys are hall of famers some day. Howard will not be. good power hitting 1b, but not hof level.
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