Midseason evaluation

[beaker]

League and roster details are located in my signature.

I thought I'd get some feedback on my squad as we are heading into the All-Star break. As you can see, I'm right in the thick of it so obviously I don't need a major overhaul. Basically, just looking for a few observations that perhaps I have not noticed, or thoughts on certain players going forward.

Firstly, here is a general breakdown of my position in each of the categories. Of course, a '9' in one category may not be better than an '8' in another, so I can be more specific (e.g. distance from competition) if required. I could also post the first place team's roster in case you feel that he should remain strong, regress back, etc.

For perspective, the first place manager has an average score of 9.5/12 (80%), whereas I have an average score of 8.7/12 (73%). Whenever I join roto leagues (applies to hockey as well), I usually target 80% to be the likely winner as it tends to be around that in my experience. So, I have a little bit to climb but I feel I can get there.

Category rankings
Strengths (9-12): R(9),RBI(10),AVG(12),OPS(11),W(9),HLD(9),ERA(12)
Weaknesses (1-4): SV(4)
Other (5-8): HR(6.5),SB(8),K(6),WHIP(8)

Notes
- I am 34 IP under pace, but my K/IP is amongst the best in the league.
- I'm always keeping an eye on potential changes in closing situations, so making moves to reflect it.
- Takahashi is mainly owned because I can start him in a SP slot and he'll give me the occasional hold. Many of the decent SP/RP relievers are owned.
- Since my ERA is the best, I try to play matchups as best as possible, and don't mind keeping under IP pace for now.
- I'm mindful of K rates, so sometimes have benched Cueto even though he's been better than I expected (aside from Ks).
- Offense is a little more set in stone, but keeping an eye on matchups occasionally.
- Offense in signature is currently set up as my starting lineup.
- Little trade interest in this league, as most seem to manage with bench or FA.

Outlook/plan
- Positive signs for the stretch run when/if other managers run out of IP, so I should climb a few spots in K if I keep going at this rate.
- Focus on SV as there are few just above me so can gain a few category points.
- Keep looking at matchups with pitchers. Amongst the best in Wins even though amongst the lowest in IP.
- Trying to keep as much offensive balance as possible. Pretty solid across the board and don't want to risk falling in any one category. For example, with Reyes' injury, have kept Pagan active more often.

EDIT: Just remembered, I plan on taking advantage of the rule that allows your overplay your IP on the day you will max them out. So, likely finding good matchups on the final day of the season in the hopes of category gains, especially if I'm in a fight for the title.


Anyway, that's a lot to digest but hopefully it will help. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

[roafw]

1- if you get unlimited moves or a lot of moves a guy like murphy loses lots of value since having a real life utility guy only becomes an ok fill in for a bunch of injuries, you are better off stashing an extra OF you can slide in on occasion.

2- you aredeep in SP, and thin in OF. Seek trades for OF since a lot of managers are stacked in the OF and you are currently running with a sub par pagan and swisher. see if you can upgrade one of those 2, or possibly mine the wire for some hot players

3- it is hard to make up for the day offs a lot of older players get since 5 out of 7 days a week every team plays, so unless you make moves the day off for off days, you need to start to steam in helton in for berkman (move pagan into OF and helton into util). Helton will not hurt you anywhere but get you decent across the board production

4- look out for what 3b are available since freese is fragile, it may be worth having a good backup stashed on your bench.

5- it is fine to be ahead of the pace for IP since a lot of younger and older arms get shut down to cap innings pitched. Zimmerman coming back from injury is your only player i would worry about an innings cap with, but still be wary that SP wears down in the 2nd half so be wary and work more good matchups.

[beaker]

1- if you get unlimited moves or a lot of moves a guy like murphy loses lots of value since having a real life utility guy only becomes an ok fill in for a bunch of injuries, you are better off stashing an extra OF you can slide in on occasion.

2- you aredeep in SP, and thin in OF. Seek trades for OF since a lot of managers are stacked in the OF and you are currently running with a sub par pagan and swisher. see if you can upgrade one of those 2, or possibly mine the wire for some hot players

3- it is hard to make up for the day offs a lot of older players get since 5 out of 7 days a week every team plays, so unless you make moves the day off for off days, you need to start to steam in helton in for berkman (move pagan into OF and helton into util). Helton will not hurt you anywhere but get you decent across the board production

4- look out for what 3b are available since freese is fragile, it may be worth having a good backup stashed on your bench.

5- it is fine to be ahead of the pace for IP since a lot of younger and older arms get shut down to cap innings pitched. Zimmerman coming back from injury is your only player i would worry about an innings cap with, but still be wary that SP wears down in the 2nd half so be wary and work more good matchups.

Thanks notoriousjim for the advice. I'll address your points:

1) Good point, but given my offensive bench, I thought having Murphy would be decent, not only as an injury fill in, but on off days as well in different positions. I know he's not amazing in any particular category. Perhaps there could be some hot players (OF) on the wire. We do have unlimited moves, but have used quite a few already and not sure I want to risk streaming in and out on a streaky bench player that may start occasionally. Will keep it in mind though.

2) That's something I've started looking at but as mentioned trading has been non-existant. A big reason for this is having six bench slots. I agree that I have pitching depth but figured it would be useful for matchups and given my IP pace. I will keep this idea in mind, however I disagree about Pagan and Swisher, especially due to my needs. I need Pagan's speed and he's been solid of late. So has Swisher, he's been on a tear in the last month and given his track record I like what he could bring in the second half, especially in power.

3) Knowing who to start sometimes with the older guys is definitely my challenge, especially since I live in Scotland, so usually I don't know who will be in the lineup until the next day. Yep, Helton's been solid and had him in my lineup for awhile, but lately took him out for Pagan as he helps my needs more. My average is tops in the league so can afford a small hit, and Helton hasn't hit a HR in awhile. I'm keeping Berkman in as much as possible while he's still hitting homeruns. I know his average has dipped lately but less worried about it. If I do find out that Berkman is sitting, then I would put Pagan in OF and Helton in Utility, so that is a good suggestion.

4) Yeah given that Freese is fragile, Murphy also helps there as well. There is very little on FA for a 3B and as mentioned it's difficult to make trades. I don't know what else I can do at the moment other than running with Freese and hope he stays healthy. I could try the trading route but difficult as mentioned especially because most teams' needs tend to be filled in other ways. I'll need to find a good fit with someone to have a chance.

5) That is a good point and I'll definitely keep that in mind. I wonder if that is also a good reason to keep a deep bench?

Had to make a move yesterday with Reyes on the DL and picked up Bonifacio, as he was the best option available. Normally not too appealing, so hopefully he'll stay at the top of the Marlins order and will continue his hot streak of decent hitting and stealing bases. Too bad I couldn't get him in last night (3-4, R, SB).

Anyone else have observations/suggestions? It would be greatly appreciated.

[beaker]

Just picked up Mike Trout and dropped Guerra. Low risk, higher reward possibility.

[GoldenSeals]

Now's the time to look at trading a starter for two mid tier closers like John Axford and Brandon League or getting one elite closer. I prefer going the mid tier closer route. You kill two birds with one stone, not having to worry as much about matchups, and also gain in counting stats you need most. Don't wait too long trading for saves. If you're not down that many points, now's the time to go for it.

[beaker]

Now's the time to look at trading a starter for two mid tier closers like John Axford and Brandon League or getting one elite closer. I prefer going the mid tier closer route. You kill two birds with one stone, not having to worry as much about matchups, and also gain in counting stats you need most. Don't wait too long trading for saves. If you're not down that many points, now's the time to go for it.

Thanks Jason. Limited options because people don't trade, and there is only one manager who's safe in terms of saves and he just lost Madson. And his only pitching weakness is holds. Given others standing, I highly doubt anyone would give up two closers for a starter. I feel they are much more valued than a mid range starter, as people tend to go to the FA list to find the latest hot starter. The other issue is that if I try to go saves heavy than I risk falling in the holds category. I don't like keeping more than one reliever on the bench as there's little way of knowing who will pitch on a given night.

Do you think Soria and Santos as my core, plus a possibility of Nathan getting it back and keeping an eye out on FA would be enough? I can possibly gain up to two ranking points in the short them (only two saves behind, now have 5 ranking points, could get up to seven) but could also drop two or three ranking points if I take out a holds guy if replaced by a closer. I'm 13 saves below the next set of managers.

But I'll have a look around to see if there is a possible fit somewhere.

[GoldenSeals]

Well if that's teh case, why not offer up Scherzer for a closer? Would also look into rostering guys that have the ability to takeover as closers. Glen Perkins and Wilton Lopez come to mind. Not sure Nathan will get a chance unless he starts showing better control.

[beaker]

Well if that's teh case, why not offer up Scherzer for a closer? Would also look into rostering guys that have the ability to takeover as closers. Glen Perkins and Wilton Lopez come to mind. Not sure Nathan will get a chance unless he starts showing better control.

I've been holding out hope that Scherzer will turn it around, and he has a decent K rate, which can be very useful and should hopefully go up when/if he starts pitching better. I was also hoping that could be useful in September when others run out of IP and could maximise my Ks and potential jump a couple spots in that category. Or are there worrying signs that he might not improve? I could put him on the block to see if anyone's interested but I feel he's a sell low, and I won't get enough in return.

Another thing I have to keep in mind (and notoriousjim mentioned) is Zimmermann's innings pitched limit. I read that he'll be shut down at 160 IP, and he's around 115 so far, so I'm guessing by late August or so. So, I would either pick someone up who's hot at that point or hope Scherzer is pitching better or use more of Cueto, though I don't like his K rate. I'm tempted to put him on the block, or offer to someone with poor ERA/WHIPs.

As for Nathan, I cannot comment on his control as I don't see any games but hasn't he been pitching better of late? In seven games since returning from injury = one ER, three HITS, no BB and six K in seven appearances. Would Perkins really get the chance to close? He only got those two saves because Nathan had pitched in the eighth and Capps blew it. Regardless, Perkins is already owned.

Thanks for the Lopez suggestion, he's actually on my watch list as I've noticed his solid numbers all round. Does Melancon have a short leash? Or is it because he's new so could easily be replaced at any time?

I just picked up Chapman since Cordero been sucking lately. However, from what I've read so far, is that Baker would likely give Cordero as much of a chance to right the ship as possible. What do you think?

[GoldenSeals]

Chapman is a great pickup! I actually traded for him in my dynasty league to a rebuilding team saying I need a couple of potential dominant holds guys, because I noticed his numbers while inputting his gamelog in my spreadsheet.

Pre Demotion Numbers - 6.92 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 13.8 /BB/9, 0.8 K/BB, 5.41 FIP
Post Demotion Numbers - 1.04 ERA, 17.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.5 K/BB, 1.37 FIP

Those are eye popping numbers.

As for Nathan, also noticed his improved control since coming back from his DL stint yesterday so you might want to hold onto him.

As for Melancon, he hasn't had many opportunities and they could just write it off as a bad month. He's more of a groundballer than Lopez, so maybe he sticks longer than I hope.

[beaker]

With K-Rod being traded, I have added Bobby Parnell in the hopes that he'll close, or at least be part of a committee. At least he should get more hold opportunities if not closing, and his K/9 rate is much better than Isringhausen's. Time will tell.

[GoldenSeals]

Isringhausen's BABIP and peripherals suggest some tougher times ahead. At worst this becomes a closer by committee but Parnell has much sexier numbers.

[beaker]

Isringhausen's BABIP and peripherals suggest some tougher times ahead. At worst this becomes a closer by committee but Parnell has much sexier numbers.

I hope that turns out to be the case. Soon after I picked up Parnell, the leader picked up Isringhausen, and dropped Adams for him.

As for Adams, that's tempting, with the Heath Bell trade rumours going around, but not sure I should put in a claim for him. I only have #8 priority out of 12 though. Uehara would my first guess for a drop, but I've made an offer with him included:

I give: Uehara, Cueto
I receive: Crow, U. Jimenez

I thought it would be handy to have a decent RP with SP eligibility, plus give me a KC handcuff in case Soria falters again. And a sell high on Cueto and buying low on Jimenez. Who knows if it'll be enough so we'll see.