AL OUTFIELD

[imported_broadway]

The AL outfield article has just been posted so I think now is a time for a good debate. Keep in mind that the rankings are for 2009 only.

I have already had discussions with a couple of people regarding the ranking of BJ Upton. I have been hearing some information that his shoulder is not 100% and it won\'t be by March 1st. The question is whether he is 100% by opening day.

I also have Granderson and Cruz ranked higher than most prognosticators.

Would love to have included Snider on the list, but I am not sold he will get full time at bats


John

[J Status]

Hey John,

I received an email from an industry expect who mentioned he questions your comparison of Jacoby to Reyes. They are similar in age and Reyes has shown more pop so far. How would you respond to that?

For myself, do you not feel Upton deserves higher ranking as a result of his huge playoff run? He seemed very healthy to me demonstrating great power potential again. I like the kid so much for fantasy also because if he doesn\'t have power, he has speed. It is nice to have that kind of production insurance.

I agree on Cruzy. I have been talking him up since this site starter. He did nothing to disappoint, and I\'m very excited to see what carries over in 2009.

[imported_broadway]

I received an email from an industry expect who mentioned he questions your comparison of Jacoby to Reyes. They are similar in age and Reyes has shown more pop so far. How would you respond to that?

Hey Jacob:

My ratings are as follows going into 2009:

Reyes 84
Ellsbury 71

Reyes is clearly top 10 fantasy overall and probably top 5. I have not come out with my overall rankings yet.

My projections for Ellsbury in 2009 are not close to Reyes as you can see. What I did was look at Reyes first full year in the majors (2006) and compared it to Ellsbury in 2008. Take a look:

Reyes 2006 : 7 HR, 58 RBI, 99 R, 60 SB, .273 AVG
Ellsbury 2008 : 9 HR, 47 RBI, 98 R, 50 SB, .280 AVG

Those numbers are eerily similar. I am not saying that Ellsbury will become as good as Reyes in a couple of years but I am not ruling out that he could come close. Ellsbury showed some pop in 2008 (9 HR) and if he can develop and produce 15 HR a year, I can see a corresponding jump in RBI.

Reyes is there as a fantasy superstar. Ellsbury is not. But Ellsbury aint half bad now and I do expect him to improve.

[imported_broadway]

J Status wrote:

For myself, do you not feel Upton deserves higher ranking as a result of his huge playoff run? He seemed very healthy to me demonstrating great power potential again. I like the kid so much for fantasy also because if he doesn\'t have power, he has speed. It is nice to have that kind of production insurance.

.

Upton had November shoulder surgery after the postseason. The St Petersburg Times reported today that Upton will miss the first week of the season and that he will be brought along slowly especially in cold weather April games.

My ranking will change if I here good news during spring training that indicates that he will be 100% by opening day. But if I have to make a call now, I will be a little conservative for 2009 only. Looking from a keeper league standpoint, his position is obviously higher.

[J Status]

Yeah, having the surgery out of the way is good though. If he would have tried to just rehab, it probably would have lingered and hampered him from time to time. I do tend to look at things from a longterm perspective because I play so many keepers myself.

I don\'t think the Reyes/Ellsbury prediction is too far fetched but just wanted to see how you\'d respond. A 5-10 homer improvement is by no means a longshot.