Jordan Staal status for next season

[newfcollins]

With all the talk about playing time, I'm surprised no one has actually brought up the statistics for it the past few years.

Jordan Staal's average time on ice per game
2009-10: 19:23
2010-11: 21:21
2011-12: 20:03

What does this show? In 2009-10, Crosby, Malkin and Staal were all pretty much healthy. The following season Staal's numbers went up by two minutes per game when Crosby and Malkin were both out of the lineup for the second half of the season (Staal missed the first half due to injury). This year, with Malkin playing all year and Crosby missing a chunk of action, his ice time actually decreased.

If Malkin and Crosby are healthy all next season, what happens to Staal's time on ice numbers?

[blayze]

If Malkin and Crosby are healthy all next season, what happens to Staal's time on ice numbers?

Nothing... I don't know why you guys keep thinking Staal's ice time is affected by Crosby/Malkin... he plays a different role. If you need proof, just like at your own data.

[lucifer316]

Alright let me go about this in a different way then, how many shut down centers can score 70 points? I understand that his role doesn't change with Malkin/Crosby in the line up, he still is utilized to shut down the oppositions top lines. So if he's used in a defensive role, can you reasonably expect him to post 70 points, considering that all of the 70-point players in the league are all in offensive roles?

we arent talking about other players we are talking about staal the same staal who coninues to add points even though he is constantly used in a defensive role the same staal who paced 66 this season

There's a difference in extrapolating points compared to making a statement... You're saying that he posted 50 points in 62 games, which means he will post 66 points in 82 games, you can't say that as a definitive statement... What I'm saying is that with Crosby in the line up, Staal's PP TOI is significantly lower, which is a definitive statement.

again when all 3 were heathy in 08-09 he got 20 more seconds per game on the pp than he did this season

i dont know why you contiue to make these statements when they just arent true

whats even more amazing is you have a problem with me extrapolating based on 66 games when you are extrapolating his ice time based on 22 games

your statement is definitive only for those 22 games the same as the 50 points

for you to say that then would be the same for a whole season well thats the same as the 66 points

I agree with you, if they've remained relatively constant, which is why his production is relatively constant. You need to change something in order for the result to change. What's Staal going to change in order to go from a 50 point player that he is now to improve to 70?
My theory is that he needs to increase his PPP production in order to get to 70 as his ES point totals are already at maximum. But with Crosby and Malkin there I don't see how he can increase his PPP. Now if Crosby or Malkin is out that gives Staal more opportunity on the PP, which could be the spark that gets him to 70.

nice way to ignore the big change of playing every game

to call him a 50 point player is just irresponsible

See I would argue that his offensive game is nearly there, and that it was a lack of opportunity that is preventing him from getting to 70... With Crosby out of the line up that freed up that opportunity for him offensively. He became the 2nd line scorer and operated at a 0.9 point-per-game pace, when Crosby was in, the opportunity is taken away from him hence the 0.64 point production.

man you just dont get that his role never changes do you

he might take more chances with crosby out of the lineup because he feels that he needs to step up and provide however his opportunities have been the same because he role is always the same

But nothing in this world is 100%, but you can make reasonable statements of possibilities that are highly likely... Staal doesn't produce on the PPP, so why would you think that he's a 70 point player, when just 1 out 21 70-point players have picked up less than 20+PPP... I can't guarantee you 100% that Staal won't get 70-points, but I could say 95% isn't that believable enough?

what you believe to be highly likely when you continue to begin with flawed premises like staal role changing then im sorry you arent 95%

For arguments sake I'll accept his 9 PPP pace, the thing is if you break it down... a lot of those PPP were produced when Crosby was not in the line up, once again I'm going back to the roles that he plays with/out Crosby.

again you are extrapolating based on 22 games after going after me for doing so based on 62 games

With Crosby in the line up he registered only 1 PPP assist, when Crosby was out he registered 5 PPG and 1 PPA, so if you look at it from a production point of view, once again with Crosby in the line up his production drops off significantly.

considering the amount of drop off obviously there is more at work here than just loss of pp ice time even you must realize that

So if Crosby is healthy for the full season, you can't really go and say he'll produce at a similar pace as this season when Crosby was out.

the 3 of them were healthy in 08-09 and he had 6

see what i did there i used a full season not 22 games because as we already said you cant extrapolate

I would use his ppg from this past season, just like how I would with any other player... but the thing is Staal's situation is different than Letangs. Staal had his competition reduced because of Crosby's injury, which opened up more offensive opportunity for him to produce this season. Hence why he went from a 50-point player to a pro-rated 66-point player this season... Letang didn't have that happen to him.

you said that you cannot extrapolate you cannot say in one instance you cannot extrapolate and in the next you can you just cant do that

once again since you seem to not grasp this in the least staals role on this team does not change with crosby in the lineup or out of the lineup

second it is mathematically impossible to have played with sullivan and dupuis the majority of the time while crosby was out have your ice time cut when crosby is back then end up with cooke and kennedy and have your even strenght ice time with the latter on the season be more as you have tried to argue many times earlier

so no im sorry your opportunity argument hinges on the falacies that one staal somehow doesnt face the top lines in a shutdown role while crosby is out and further the falacy that he played the majority of his season with better linemates

What I'm arguing is opportunity... Letang has all the opportunity in the world to rack up a big score because he has little to no competition. Staal on the other hand has two of the world's best players ahead of him on the depth charts. So what I'm saying is that when you say Staal has 70 point potential with Malkin and Crosby ahead of him, is like me saying Letang can get 71 points by adding 2 of the world's best ahead of him on the depth charts... With that type of competition Letang would never be a 71 point player. With Crosby and Malkin ahead of him Staal will never be a 70 point player...

you continue to ignore what i am asking you i am not talking about how you arrive at a final projection for them

i am asking you do you use his ppg as a base for determining that projection because you outright said that you cannot extrapolate based on ppg

you keep bringing up malkin and crosby while ignoring the things you have ignored through out all of these threads namely that staals role does not change nor does his ice time significantly change nor do his linemates significantly change

further after telling me you cannot extrapolate based on 62 games you have gone on and extrapolated based on 22 games several times over

you are making an argument based on an extremely small sampling while crying foul that i used a larger sampling for mine and your argument is based on factually incorrect information

[newfcollins]

Nothing... I don't know why you guys keep thinking Staal's ice time is affected by Crosby/Malkin... he plays a different role. If you need proof, just like at your own data.

His ice time has gone up the last few years, thanks to Crosby and Malkin battling injuries. His points-per-game has gone up the last few years, thanks to Malkin and Crosby battling injuries (more ice time, more powerplay time, etc.).

So if Malkin and Crosby aren't injured, Staal's ice time goes down. Less chance of seeing PP ice time. More of a defensive role. Ergo, his points-per-game average should also decrease.

[newfcollins]

we arent talking about other players we are talking about staal the same staal who coninues to add points even though he is constantly used in a defensive role the same staal who paced 66 this season


again when all 3 were heathy in 08-09 he got 20 more seconds per game on the pp than he did this season

i dont know why you contiue to make these statements when they just arent true

Jordan Staal's average time on ice per game
2009-10: 19:23
2010-11: 21:21
2011-12: 20:03

You mention one PP stat from one year, and that's it. You're totally ignoring the fact that his overall ice time is down by two minutes when everyone is healthy.

[lucifer316]

You mention one PP stat from one year, and that's it. You're totally ignoring the fact that his overall ice time is down by two minutes when everyone is healthy.

yes from one year because the argument is about when healthy the one season i list is the one where all three of them were healthy

no point in pointing to seasons where they werent healthy to show what happens when they are healthy

everyone was not healthy the season you listed malkin missed 15 games that season

what you are totally ignoring is the fact that staal was 21 years old the season his ice time was 'down'

you ignore that his increase in ice time comes from an improvement in his game ie as players get better they get more ice time

but the point is its a matter of being relative yes the gross time for him goes down however he continues to get top icetime on this team not the 3rd line icetime that everyone tries to claim he gets

futher you are claiming that his lower point totals in the past are because of his ice time and ignoring completely that he has been getting better

also you continue to try to perpetuate the myth that staal does not always play a shut down role that has been false every time someone else says it i dont understand how it somehow becomes true just because you say it

[newfcollins]

also you continue to try to perpetuate the myth that staal does not always play a shut down role that has been false every time someone else says it

Explain please.

[lucifer316]

Explain please.

what is there to explain

staal is a shutdown center no matter who on the pens is injured he is matched up against the other teams top lines to shut them down

thats a fact that people just refuse to wrap their heads around

they keep trying to act like his role changes to scoring center when crosby is out

thats just not the case he is always a shutdown center

[newfcollins]

what is there to explain

staal is a shutdown center no matter who on the pens is injured he is matched up against the other teams top lines to shut them down

thats a fact that people just refuse to wrap their heads around

they keep trying to act like his role changes to scoring center when crosby is out

thats just not the case he is always a shutdown center

What I meant is how did I perpetuate a myth?

Something I don't understand. If you believe Staal is a shutdown centre, no matter who is injured; and if you believe in the ice time stats (which you brought up originally by pointing out he's been second or third in average ice time, so you must believe them), then how do you figure he'll get 70 points? You're telling us a shutdown centre whose role is never going to change, no matter what happens, is going to get 70 points. His linemates won't get better, as he'll continue to play with other shutdown guys.

[lucifer316]

What I meant is how did I perpetuate a myth?

the myth is that staals role changes

here is you perpetuating it

His ice time has gone up the last few years, thanks to Crosby and Malkin battling injuries. His points-per-game has gone up the last few years, thanks to Malkin and Crosby battling injuries (more ice time, more powerplay time, etc.).

So if Malkin and Crosby aren't injured, Staal's ice time goes down. Less chance of seeing PP ice time. More of a defensive role. Ergo, his points-per-game average should also decrease.

Something I don't understand. If you believe Staal is a shutdown centre, no matter who is injured; and if you believe in the ice time stats (which you brought up originally by pointing out he's been second or third in average ice time, so you must believe them), then how do you figure he'll get 70 points? You're telling us a shutdown centre whose role is never going to change, no matter what happens, is going to get 70 points. His linemates won't get better, as he'll continue to play with other shutdown guys.

he was a shutdown center this season he had suspect linemates and he paced 66

he is only 23 years old and i dont believe he has hit the top of his game yet

thus a jump from 66 to 70 doesnt seem very large

guys have swings of 4 points without development so even if he is done developing as some claim (which i think is bunk) its still possible by virue of fluctuations in points

[newfcollins]

the myth is that staals role changes

here is you perpetuating it




he was a shutdown center this season he had suspect linemates and he paced 66

he is only 23 years old and i dont believe he has hit the top of his game yet

thus a jump from 66 to 70 doesnt seem very large

guys have swings of 4 points without development so even if he is done developing as some claim (which i think is bunk) its still possible by virue of fluctuations in points

Staal never had 66 points this year, so it's not a four-point jump. Staal has never had more than 50 points in a season. That's a 20-point jump you're thinking he's going to get, not four. There's a difference.

You're acting like he had 66 points, and thereby it's only four points. It's not.

That would be like saying Joffrey Lupul is an 83-point player. Lupul never hit 80 points. He's never even hit 70. If Lupul gets 85 points next year, is that a two-point jump, or an 18-point jump?

[lucifer316]

Staal never had 66 points this year, so it's not a four-point jump. Staal has never had more than 50 points in a season. That's a 20-point jump you're thinking he's going to get, not four. There's a difference.

You're acting like he had 66 points, and thereby it's only four points. It's not.

That would be like saying Joffrey Lupul is an 83-point player. Lupul never hit 80 points. He's never even hit 70. If Lupul gets 85 points next year, is that a two-point jump, or an 18-point jump?

i never said staal got 70 i said he gets 70 next season if healthy

so what you are saying is that you would draft lupul as a 67 point player next season and letang as a 50 point player

[lucifer316]

what is more likely that if staal was healthy he would have gotten zero points in each of the games that he missed or that he would have produced at the same rate he did all season

[newfcollins]

i never said staal got 70 i said he gets 70 next season if healthy

so what you are saying is that you would draft lupul as a 67 point player next season and letang as a 50 point player

Fine, you said Staal is going to get 70 points if healthy, and that's only a four-point jump.

Quote: "thus a jump from 66 to 70 doesnt seem very large. guys have swings of 4 points without development so even if he is done developing as some claim (which i think is bunk) its still possible by virue of fluctuations in points."

And yes, I would not draft Lupul next season expecting he's going to get 83 points. If so, I would have to draft him somewhere late in the first round.

[lucifer316]

Fine, you said Staal is going to get 70 points if healthy, and that's only a four-point jump.

Quote: "thus a jump from 66 to 70 doesnt seem very large. guys have swings of 4 points without development so even if he is done developing as some claim (which i think is bunk) its still possible by virue of fluctuations in points."

And yes, I would not draft Lupul next season expecting he's going to get 83 points. If so, I would have to draft him somewhere late in the first round.

part of projections is extrapolating it is done all the time

you didnt answer the question i asked about lupul and ignored it about letang