Jordan Staal status for next season

[lucifer316]

I don't spend 24/7 on the website (as opposed to what my fiance thinks...) so I don't scroll through every post and question every single thing that I disagree with. Your's was one that I felt strongly about so I commented... and I thought it was worthwhile to argue against. Just cause there are many around doesn't mean that I'm obligated to have to argue against it. Doesn't change the fact that my opinion is completely different than yours...





I didn't call you "unknowledgeable". If you read my statement, it reads that you can't just go around making bold statements and justify it with "well that's my opinion", there's too many people (like me) who will call you out on it... Just like in my weekly columns, I write something that isn't to the liking of Pengwin and he'll be the first to jump on my back about it... When you write something out in a public forum, if it can be questioned it will be...



hahaha this is exactly what my students say back to me... "Mr. Ma you're always picking on me..." so and so is doing it too and you're not doing anything to them... Just cause others are doing it doesn't make it acceptable for you to do it... I just so happened to stumble upon your post and decided to question it. I didn't stumble to others that I thought deserved to be questioned...



There's no need to be offended, it's just an internet forum at the end of the day, don't need to be so serious about it. I was just curious as to what was your reasoning behind thinking that Staal is a 70-point player that is all. Obviously I care about the matter or else I wouldn't have spent the last 2 hours digging up stats and stuff to justify my opinion... I guess I'm just too passionate about fantasy hockey that when someone makes a statement that I don't think is true/feasible, I'll go out of my way to try to prove them wrong or convince them otherwise...



I'm the PE teacher, so I don't really go that terribly with them... But I am the "Nazi" of the school supposedly hahaha...



Honestly I apologize if you interpreted that way... I'm not saying you're unknowledgeable, everyone has knowledge and can formulate an opinion, just like anything else in the world, there are some that hold more water and there are some that you brush aside. It's how well you defend/justify it that's where the value of the opinion comes from. There are lots of "knowledgeable" people here on the boards and probably the best in terms of fantasy hockey knowledge on the net, that they will call you out to justify it if it doesn't make sense to them. Like Pengwin, he'll call me out every week if he finds something he doesn't like with my columns... On DH, you can't just go around making senseless claims anymore is what I'm trying to get across.



Don't get me wrong there's tons and tons of opinions that are outright wrong and many that are absolutely spot on. Many of them I've called them out on as well, so it's not just you I'm "picking on". If you have some spare time, search up MT319 and look up a few of the epic battles I've had with him in the past...



Naw nothing to be sorry about, it's a internet forum, if you aren't allowed to have an opinion on here where else can you have one...

right back at it i see i am not whining no matter what you want to imply nor am i being a child i am pointing out an inconsistency in your actions as you seem to think your role as a 'knowledgeable' poster is to impress us unwashed masses with your overwhelming abiltity to get everything right

also while you might not agree with my jusifications doesnt mean you are correct

people insist he will not get top 6 ice time so he cant possibly get points

thats absolutely false the stats do not bear that out in the least

people insist he will not get points because his role will be different with a healthy malkin and crosby

again absolutely false his role is shutdown center doesnt matter who is healthy on the team thats his job

people insist he will not get points because he will have shitty wingers

he always has shitty winger so again false he has continued to get better and produce with shitty wingers there is no reason to expect that to change

there is nothing wrong with my justifications other than you dont agree with them however that doesnt mean they arent true

[Maaaasquito]

it doesnt matter if crosby and malkin are healthy or not staals job doesnt change he is the shutdown center

I agree with you, but with Crosby/Malkin out of the line up he steps up and is moved up in a more offensive role, with both of them in the line up he stays in his shut down role... Not arguing that point.

it doesnt matter if crosby and malkin are healthy or not staals wingers are likely to be shitty hell most of their career crosby and malkin have been stuck with shitty wingers thats just the pens thing shitty wingers

So what I don't get is why would you bring out the point that he's posted a 66-point pace with "crappy" line mates, and with better line mates he could easily put up 70... then go out and say well he's never going to get quality wingers anyway. That's contradictory isn't it?

even when all three have been healthy staal has gotten around 2 min on the pp it went up to 3 the season all three missed considerable time however when all three have been healthy he has gotten 2 min and when two of them have been reasonably healthy he has gotten 2 min so the 2 min is likely not going to change

That's not according to the numbers from FrozenPool. When both are healthy Staal averaged 1:06 between Nov. 21 and Dec 5. then averaged 1:15 between Mar. 15 and Apr. 18. So when you say he was averaging 2 mins a game that's factually incorrect...

If you look back to 2008-09, the last time that all 3 played significant time together, he averaged 2:19 and picked up 49 points (6 on the PP) on the season.

So you're telling me that he can average 2 mins a game on the PP on the 2nd unit, with Neal and Kunitz (as opposed to Guerin and Sykora) as competition, and you confidently think that he can post 20 more points than he did from that season...

the guy is 23 years old i dont see him as having his development offensively end at this age as this flies contrary to what we tend to see on players around the league

It doesn't have anything to do with age and his development, it's about opportunity. With Malkin and Crosby plus Neal and Kunitz, there isn't a lot of room for Staal to produce offensively, because that's not his role on the team... If Malkin or Crosby is out of the line up, that gives Staal the opportunity to produce offensively, which then you can argue that he has the potential for 70+ points. But with Crosby/Malkin both healthy, it would be very hard to argue that he's a 70+ point threat...

Another point on your 23 year olds "bust out" argument. Not all 23 years olds bust out, only the ones that are given the opportunity to actually bust out... Or else you'd see every 23-year old bust out, which isn't the case...

hell only 7 of the guys points came on the pp this season so even if his pp time disappears im not sure that isnt overcome by his natural development

This is where I disagree with you, the problem is when you say he can post 70 points next season because he has the natural ability to do so, that doesn't mean squat...

If you look at the entire list of all of the players that tallied 70+ points this season.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...iewName=points

One thing that they all have in common is production on the PP. Every player that tallied 70 points this season had at least 20 PPP, with the exception of Eriksson (12 PPP)

You could probably even develop a general statement that unless a player spends significant amount of time on the PP, they will not be a 70 point player.

So when you go and say Staal certainly can tally 70 points and it doesn't matter about the PPP, so you're telling me that he's gonna tally 65+ ES points and only have 5+ PPP? There were only 2 players that tallied more than 60 ES points last season and their names were Malkin and Stamkos... So you're telling me that Staal doesn't need to get PPP and he can do it all by getting ES points?

[Maaaasquito]

right back at it i see i am not whining no matter what you want to imply nor am i being a child i am pointing out an inconsistency in your actions as you seem to think your role as a 'knowledgeable' poster is to impress us unwashed masses with your overwhelming abiltity to get everything right

I dunno but when you use a "pompous douchebag" comment seems pretty child-like to me? I mean I've formulated a reasonable argument IMO, but you haven't done much to justify yours, except resorting to name calling...

As I explained before, the "inconsistencies" of my actions have nothing to do with how well you are defending your initial statement... Just cause I'm "picking on you" while there are millions of others out there that are doing the exact same doesn't make your argument any more right.

I'm not out to impress anybody, I'm here to give my opinion in the thread, just like how everyone is, just like how you are... But as I have said previously, everyone is entitled to an opinion, some will hold more water than the rest. It's my job to make sure that my opinion holds more water than the ones that are different than mine and to reasonably justify why my opinion is more right than the ones that contradict mine. People come on here to seek an informed opinion about the question that have in hand. It's our job to help them out the best we can. So when people make a statement which IMO isn't correct and then can't justify it strongly, then obviously it'll open up a strong debate.

also while you might not agree with my jusifications doesnt mean you are correct

No, that's the great thing about these forums, there is no correct answer until we look back at it retrospectively in a year's time... It's up to whoever is reading this thread to decide if I've made a good enough argument to convince them, or you've made a good enough argument to convince them. Or Sentium making a good enough argument to convince them... That's the beauty of these forums, there's so many "knowledgeable" people out there, that you always learn something new to sway your own opinion. I go through a couple of threads a day and learn something new all the time... Everyone has knowledge, but it's a matter of whether or not they can justify it well enough to convince others to think the same.

people insist he will not get top 6 ice time so he cant possibly get points

thats absolutely false the stats do not bear that out in the least

I don't think that's what people are arguing against you... at least that's not what I'm arguing against you... I'm arguing about the 70 point statement. A lot of the points that you do bring up make sense, like your top-six ice-time argument...

I agree with you that his overall ice-time won't be overly affected, but its the quality of the ice-time that will be affected when Crosby is in the line up. Even if he gets "top-six" ice-time, the lack of the PP TOI is what will prevent him from getting 70 points. (read previous post)

people insist he will not get points because his role will be different with a healthy malkin and crosby

again absolutely false his role is shutdown center doesnt matter who is healthy on the team thats his job

people insist he will not get points because he will have shitty wingers

he always has shitty winger so again false he has continued to get better and produce with shitty wingers there is no reason to expect that to change

Well with Crosby out of the line up, Staal became the 2nd line C, so that allowed him to line up with Sullivan and Dupuis for a significant amount of time. When Crosby returned he was relegated back down to a 3rd line role with Kennedy and Cooke... so I mean his role does change with/out Crosby in the line up. It's more offensive with Crosby out than it is with him in. Hence the discrepancies in scoring (0.64 vs 0.9 points per game) with and without Crosby in the line up.

One of the big things that you're assuming is that players directly control their own production rate, which isn't the case. All of the 70 point players, are 70 point players because they have a strong supporting cast with them. They aren't independent of their team environment. So when you say Staal can play to a 70-point+ potential, there's a lot of external factors that need to be met in order for him to get there. Which is where I think you're oversimplifying things.
[/QUOTE]

there is nothing wrong with my justifications other than you dont agree with them however that doesnt mean they arent true

There is absolutely nothing wrong with your justifications! and we won't know whether they are true or not well into the future (probably when we've both forgotten about this topic). It's the audience that's reading this that will determine who's made a stronger case and whether or not we've made a convincing enough argument to sway their opinions.

[horrorfan]

Trust me when I say I've been around the block long enough to see my fair share of arguments that are unjustified... as I said previously anyone under the sun can formulate an opinion, but when they justify it with "well that's my opinion... and can't back it up with anything substantive or concrete" that's when I'll question you as I have in the past with quite a few other forumers (ahem, MT319)...

A sure fire way of having Gotlaid 'pick on you' is using skating mechanics as your main argument.

[Maaaasquito]

A sure fire way of having Gotlaid 'pick on you' is using skating mechanics as your main argument.

Don't forget "mental fitness" and the one that will really rile me up is "the average GM running their team is inferior to mine"... that one will get me steaming...

[horrorfan]

Don't forget "mental fitness" and the one that will really rile me up is "the average GM running their team is inferior to mine"... that one will get me steaming...

Yep, those discussions were both interesting and frustrating at the same time, and I was just reading them!

[Maaaasquito]

Yep, those discussions were both interesting and frustrating at the same time, and I was just reading them!

Yeah the funny thing is looking back at it retrospectively, he was probably 50/50 on his statements, which is no where near the 100% right on 90% of the statements that he stated, but at least he tried to it convincing otherwise, which was entertaining...

[lucifer316]

I agree with you, but with Crosby/Malkin out of the line up he steps up and is moved up in a more offensive role, with both of them in the line up he stays in his shut down role... Not arguing that point.

his role is always shut down no matter who is in or out of the line up the majority of his matchups are against the other teams toughest lines regardless so no his role doesnt change

So what I don't get is why would you bring out the point that he's posted a 66-point pace with "crappy" line mates, and with better line mates he could easily put up 70... then go out and say well he's never going to get quality wingers anyway. That's contradictory isn't it?

i didnt say that he would post 70 with quality linemates

That's not according to the numbers from FrozenPool. When both are healthy Staal averaged 1:06 between Nov. 21 and Dec 5. then averaged 1:15 between Mar. 15 and Apr. 18. So when you say he was averaging 2 mins a game that's factually incorrect...

his averages for each of the last 4 seasons have him at 2 with one season of 3 so no it is not incorrect

if we are going to talk about what he is going to score in a season we are going to look at season averages arent we

If you look back to 2008-09, the last time that all 3 played significant time together, he averaged 2:19 and picked up 49 points (6 on the PP) on the season.

So you're telling me that he can average 2 mins a game on the PP on the 2nd unit, with Neal and Kunitz (as opposed to Guerin and Sykora) as competition, and you confidently think that he can post 20 more points than he did from that season...

malkin neal crosby and kunitz already comprise the first pp line so i am not sure how neal and kunitz are competition for second pp time

thats right in 08-09 when all were healthy he go 6 pp points and in other injury seasons he got 09-10 5 pp points 10-11 7 pp points and 11-12 7 pp points

his pp points have remained pretty constant through out his even strength scoring has increased

It doesn't have anything to do with age and his development, it's about opportunity. With Malkin and Crosby plus Neal and Kunitz, there isn't a lot of room for Staal to produce offensively, because that's not his role on the team... If Malkin or Crosby is out of the line up, that gives Staal the opportunity to produce offensively, which then you can argue that he has the potential for 70+ points. But with Crosby/Malkin both healthy, it would be very hard to argue that he's a 70+ point threat...

his role is the same no matter if they are in the lineup or out of the lineup he is matched up against other teams top lines thats his job no matter what

Another point on your 23 year olds "bust out" argument. Not all 23 years olds bust out, only the ones that are given the opportunity to actually bust out... Or else you'd see every 23-year old bust out, which isn't the case...

i never said he was going to bust out he paced 66 i think he is good for 70 thats not busting out

i said he could bust out if given the proper linemates

This is where I disagree with you, the problem is when you say he can post 70 points next season because he has the natural ability to do so, that doesn't mean squat...

If you look at the entire list of all of the players that tallied 70+ points this season.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...iewName=points

One thing that they all have in common is production on the PP. Every player that tallied 70 points this season had at least 20 PPP, with the exception of Eriksson (12 PPP)

You could probably even develop a general statement that unless a player spends significant amount of time on the PP, they will not be a 70 point player.

all of which means squat to use your words

general statements are just that they are not absolutes

there are not hard and fast rules as to what a player can and cant do one outcome might seem more likely than another based on other players however if i cant extrapolate a players season based on his own production you certainly cant extrapolate it based on other players production

So when you go and say Staal certainly can tally 70 points and it doesn't matter about the PPP, so you're telling me that he's gonna tally 65+ ES points and only have 5+ PPP? There were only 2 players that tallied more than 60 ES points last season and their names were Malkin and Stamkos... So you're telling me that Staal doesn't need to get PPP and he can do it all by getting ES points?

he was on pace for 50 es points this past season as i stated above he has no competition for 2nd line pp time with neal and kunitz as they are already on the top pp unit so he isnt likely to see a drop off in his pp production

and you know what you can claim its not fair to talk about staals pace all you want but i bet when you are figuring out what letang is likely to get next season you are using his ppg this past season as a base for your projection and what i am doing with staal is no different

[lucifer316]

I dunno but when you use a "pompous douchebag" comment seems pretty child-like to me? I mean I've formulated a reasonable argument IMO, but you haven't done much to justify yours, except resorting to name calling...

i recall apologizing but i guess you have determined to not accpet that and continue name calling i wish you would have made such clear

i certainly did make a reasonable argument it just happened to be before you decided to jump into the conversation you didnt read it until much later

As I explained before, the "inconsistencies" of my actions have nothing to do with how well you are defending your initial statement... Just cause I'm "picking on you" while there are millions of others out there that are doing the exact same doesn't make your argument any more right.

i never said you were picking on me i am pointing something out

nothing you have posted makes your argument more right either again get off your high horse your argument is riddled with some pretty big flaws starting with your insistance that staal is not playing a shut down role all the time

I'm not out to impress anybody, I'm here to give my opinion in the thread, just like how everyone is, just like how you are... But as I have said previously, everyone is entitled to an opinion, some will hold more water than the rest. It's my job to make sure that my opinion holds more water than the ones that are different than mine and to reasonably justify why my opinion is more right than the ones that contradict mine. People come on here to seek an informed opinion about the question that have in hand. It's our job to help them out the best we can. So when people make a statement which IMO isn't correct and then can't justify it strongly, then obviously it'll open up a strong debate.

my justifications are just fine im not one claiming staals role as shutdown center changes depending on the health of crosby or malkin

he is put out there against other teams top lines the majority of the time throughout the season and that is the case if crosby or malkin or crosby and malkin are hurt to suggest otherwise without showing the proof of that is making a statement without strong justification

I don't think that's what people are arguing against you... at least that's not what I'm arguing against you... I'm arguing about the 70 point statement. A lot of the points that you do bring up make sense, like your top-six ice-time argument...

the reasons why staal cant get to 70 points all consist of factually untrue statements

I agree with you that his overall ice-time won't be overly affected, but its the quality of the ice-time that will be affected when Crosby is in the line up. Even if he gets "top-six" ice-time, the lack of the PP TOI is what will prevent him from getting 70 points. (read previous post)

and what you continue to ignore is that not only has he never seen significant pp ice time pp scoring has never been a large portion of his scoring

Well with Crosby out of the line up, Staal became the 2nd line C, so that allowed him to line up with Sullivan and Dupuis for a significant amount of time. When Crosby returned he was relegated back down to a 3rd line role with Kennedy and Cooke... so I mean his role does change with/out Crosby in the line up. It's more offensive with Crosby out than it is with him in. Hence the discrepancies in scoring (0.64 vs 0.9 points per game) with and without Crosby in the line up.

his highest frequecy line mates this season were cook and kennedy

and his matchups through the season were generally against the other teams top lines

and while i consider sullivan a decent yet old winger dupuis isnt exactly a stand out winger

One of the big things that you're assuming is that players directly control their own production rate, which isn't the case. All of the 70 point players, are 70 point players because they have a strong supporting cast with them. They aren't independent of their team environment. So when you say Staal can play to a 70-point+ potential, there's a lot of external factors that need to be met in order for him to get there. Which is where I think you're oversimplifying things.

there are plenty of players who have produced with suspect linemates and plenty of them had 70 points or more

hell crosby and malkin have crushed 100 with suspect linemates

[Maaaasquito]

his role is always shut down no matter who is in or out of the line up the majority of his matchups are against the other teams toughest lines regardless so no his role doesnt change

I would argue that it does, with Crosby/Malkin, Staal drops to 3rd line, when Crosby was out he was on the 2nd line with Sully and Dupuis. He wasn't purely on a checking line anymore...

i didnt say that he would post 70 with quality linemates

Did you not say that with better line mates he would be a 70 point player?

his averages for each of the last 4 seasons have him at 2 with one season of 3 so no it is not incorrect

if we are going to talk about what he is going to score in a season we are going to look at season averages arent we

You can't look at seasonal averages cause then you'd be comparing apples to oranges. I'm not looking at his seasonal PP production. My argument is the difference in Staal's PP TOI with/out Crosby/Malkin in the line up. When you look at seasonal PP TOI, it's a mixture of PP TOI with Crosby and without Crosby... On average yes he averaged 2 minutes on the PP this season, but if you break it down, when Crosby was out the PP TOI average was closer to 2:30 per game, while the PP TOI when Crosby was in the line up was around 1:10. With Crosby out, Staal has much more opportunity on the PP to pick up more points. Hence he has a much higher chance of tallying 70 points in a season. With Crosby in the line up, if he continues to average 1:10 per game, how's he going to get enough PPP to get him up to 70?

thats right in 08-09 when all were healthy he go 6 pp points and in other injury seasons he got 09-10 5 pp points 10-11 7 pp points and 11-12 7 pp points

his pp points have remained pretty constant through out his even strength scoring has increased

Maybe that's the main reason why he's actually never been remotely close to 70 points in his career. It's because of the lack of PPP... There's only so many ES points a player can score, what actually boosts them up into the 70 point range and beyond into the point-per-game range is perhaps the PPP production. So if Staal traditionally doesn't record very many PPP, and doesn't really have the opportunity to do so in Pittsburgh, then can we reasonably expect him to ever become a 70-point player then?

general statements are just that they are not absolutes

You are 100% correct that they're not absolutes, but when 1 out of 21 players in the 70+ point range had less than 20 PPP, that's enough to reasonably justify that Staal averaging just 6 PPP per season during the last 4 seasons, probably won't really have a shot at 70 points isn't it?

he was on pace for 50 es points this past season as i stated above he has no competition for 2nd line pp time with neal and kunitz as they are already on the top pp unit so he isnt likely to see a drop off in his pp production

But see that's where the problem in your argument lies, if he already was on pace for 50 ES points this season, if he averages 6 PPP like he usually does, that means he needs to pick up 64 ES points in order to be even remotely close to 70 points... Where do you think he's going to get the extra 14 from? I mean they can't just magically appear out of no where right? Now add Crosby back into the mix, surely even getting to 50 ES points would be a tough task...

and you know what you can claim its not fair to talk about staals pace all you want but i bet when you are figuring out what letang is likely to get next season you are using his ppg this past season as a base for your projection and what i am doing with staal is no different

My argument would be Letang doesn't face the same competition as Staal faces, he doesn't have a Crosby/Malkin playing the same position as him... Letang gets full reigns of the PP time on the top PP unit essentially uninterrupted. He doesn't have to compete with the Kunitz, Neal, Kennedy, Cooke, Dupuis for ice-time and point production.

You saying Staal getting 70 points is the equivalent of me saying Letang is getting 71 points, while the Pens sign Karlsson and Byfuligen in the off-season... I'm sure you'd question that statement too...

[Maaaasquito]

and what you continue to ignore is that not only has he never seen significant pp ice time pp scoring has never been a large portion of his scoring

Maybe that's one of the reasons why he'll never hit 70 points, as I pointed out in my other posts, generally speaking in order for players to hit 70 points they need a good mix of PPP and ES points. Staal doesn't product enough of the former, so maybe that will be his Achilles heel in ever hitting the 70-point mark.

his highest frequecy line mates this season were cook and kennedy

and while i consider sullivan a decent yet old winger dupuis isnt exactly a stand out winger

That is inclusive of the time that Crosby was in the line up... When Crosby was out, I would say that majority of the time was spent with Sullivan and Dupuis. Dupuis put up 59 points this season, so I would say he was pretty decent with the Pens this season.

there are plenty of players who have produced with suspect linemates and plenty of them had 70 points or more

hell crosby and malkin have crushed 100 with suspect linemates

But Staal isn't Crosby or Malkin... Both of those guys have proven that they are generational players capable of easily smashing out 100 point seasons when healthy... Staal's career-high was this season at 50 (66 if you want to pro-rate it), so when you argue that Crosby and Malkin can do it why can't Staal, that argument doesn't hold a lot of water... Also how many of them have produced 70 points, with little/no production on the PPP, with Crosby/Malkin ahead of them on the depth charts and play mostly a 3rd line checking center role with their teams?

[lucifer316]

I would argue that it does, with Crosby/Malkin, Staal drops to 3rd line, when Crosby was out he was on the 2nd line with Sully and Dupuis. He wasn't purely on a checking line anymore...

his role is shutdown center he is matched against other top lines

Did you not say that with better line mates he would be a 70 point player?

nope i made an even more ridiculous statment than that (well ridiculous according to you anyway)

You can't look at seasonal averages cause then you'd be comparing apples to oranges. I'm not looking at his seasonal PP production. My argument is the difference in Staal's PP TOI with/out Crosby/Malkin in the line up. When you look at seasonal PP TOI, it's a mixture of PP TOI with Crosby and without Crosby... On average yes he averaged 2 minutes on the PP this season, but if you break it down, when Crosby was out the PP TOI average was closer to 2:30 per game, while the PP TOI when Crosby was in the line up was around 1:10. With Crosby out, Staal has much more opportunity on the PP to pick up more points. Hence he has a much higher chance of tallying 70 points in a season. With Crosby in the line up, if he continues to average 1:10 per game, how's he going to get enough PPP to get him up to 70?

you have to look at seasonal averages when you are determining what is being done during a season other wise you are extrapolating which according to you is a no no

his pp icetime and production have remained relatively constant across the last 4 seasons

Maybe that's the main reason why he's actually never been remotely close to 70 points in his career. It's because of the lack of PPP... There's only so many ES points a player can score, what actually boosts them up into the 70 point range and beyond into the point-per-game range is perhaps the PPP production. So if Staal traditionally doesn't record very many PPP, and doesn't really have the opportunity to do so in Pittsburgh, then can we reasonably expect him to ever become a 70-point player then?

the guy is still developing not every one comes into the league a superstar if they did we wouldnt much need a site like this now would we

the main reason why hes actually never been remotely close to 70 points is that he has been learning how to integrate the offense into his game without his defensive game suffering for it thats not an over night process

You are 100% correct that they're not absolutes, but when 1 out of 21 players in the 70+ point range had less than 20 PPP, that's enough to reasonably justify that Staal averaging just 6 PPP per season during the last 4 seasons, probably won't really have a shot at 70 points isn't it?

100% is a justification for that if its not 100% you cant make it as a blanket statement it has to be looked into further

But see that's where the problem in your argument lies, if he already was on pace for 50 ES points this season, if he averages 6 PPP like he usually does, that means he needs to pick up 64 ES points in order to be even remotely close to 70 points... Where do you think he's going to get the extra 14 from? I mean they can't just magically appear out of no where right? Now add Crosby back into the mix, surely even getting to 50 ES points would be a tough task...

cant take his 50 pace and then have his ppp average at its actual number from 2 seasons ago he actually paced 9 ppp this past season

one thing i will say is the volatility of shp is certainly something that can get in the way of his ability to hit 70 he paced 7 this season but that is a number that can change and can certainly inhibit his ability to get there

My argument would be Letang doesn't face the same competition as Staal faces, he doesn't have a Crosby/Malkin playing the same position as him... Letang gets full reigns of the PP time on the top PP unit essentially uninterrupted. He doesn't have to compete with the Kunitz, Neal, Kennedy, Cooke, Dupuis for ice-time and point production.

that is a nice statement but has absolutely zero to do with responding to what you quoted i asked you when you project letangs production for next season do you in any way shape or form use his ppg from this past season or not

You saying Staal getting 70 points is the equivalent of me saying Letang is getting 71 points, while the Pens sign Karlsson and Byfuligen in the off-season... I'm sure you'd question that statement too...

completely and totally false as crosby and malkin both played games for the pens this season and karlsson and byfuligen did not

besides your analogy falling apart there you need to take into account that defense ice time is a completely different animal from forward ice time not to mention chemistry the fact that we dont know if 1 or 2 defensemen will play on the first pp unit etc tons of moving parts which cant be predicted as accurately since they havent been on the team already

the moving parts that exist in the staal case have existed for 4 seasons now so predicting based on what has gone on is easier than making predictions based on thin air

[lucifer316]

Maybe that's one of the reasons why he'll never hit 70 points, as I pointed out in my other posts, generally speaking in order for players to hit 70 points they need a good mix of PPP and ES points. Staal doesn't product enough of the former, so maybe that will be his Achilles heel in ever hitting the 70-point mark.

generally speaking but we are specifically speaking now

That is inclusive of the time that Crosby was in the line up... When Crosby was out, I would say that majority of the time was spent with Sullivan and Dupuis. Dupuis put up 59 points this season, so I would say he was pretty decent with the Pens this season.

of course it is inclusive we are speaking about a season here so we look at a season

crosby only played about 1/4 of the season i wonder how you figure that if a majority of his shifts without crosby in the lineup were with sully and dupuis and the majority of his shifts with crosby in the lineup were with cooke and kennedy and staal saw his icetime cut with crosby in the lineup we can mathematically arrive at the majority of his even strenth icetime over the course of the season being with cooke and kennedy

do you see the problem there

yes dupuis had a decent season only the second in his entire career 2 decent seasons in a 10 season career doesnt spell stand out to me

But Staal isn't Crosby or Malkin... Both of those guys have proven that they are generational players capable of easily smashing out 100 point seasons when healthy... Staal's career-high was this season at 50 (66 if you want to pro-rate it), so when you argue that Crosby and Malkin can do it why can't Staal, that argument doesn't hold a lot of water... Also how many of them have produced 70 points, with little/no production on the PPP, with Crosby/Malkin ahead of them on the depth charts and play mostly a 3rd line checking center role with their teams?

never said staal was crosby or malkin thats why i am not saying he will hit 100

i am not arguing that staal can hit 100 thats what you are trying to put into my mouth you can try to misrepresent what i am posting all you want but we should stick to what i am posting

you claim it isnt done in a vaccuum i am pointing out sometimes it absolutely is done in a vaccuum

the last question doesnt even deserve a response its nonsense

[letangerang58]

I got bored reading all of your arguements. So I skipped the last few pages. I'll just say how I see things panning out as a Pens fan and someone who closely follows the Pens.

Here are a few current facts about Staal playing with the pens:

-Staal gets top ice time with or without Crosby and/or Malkin in the line up. There has only been a small drop off of his TOI when Crosby and Malkin have both been in the line up and Bylsma himself has said that their goal is to get Staal around 20 minutes of TOI when Crosby and Malkin are in the lineup.

-Staal plays a defensive role primarily with the Penguins. This will not change as long as Crosby, Malkin and Staal are all Penguins. The role of line 3 center is to important to leave in the hands of someone less capable.

-Staal plays a lot on the PK and when he's on the ice even strength it is not a guarantee that he is out there to score. Chances are he is shutting down the oppositions top fowards during his even strength time.

-Currently Staal's PP time is mostly on the second unit and he primarly plays with the left over players who don't play on PP1. Neal, Malkin and Crosby don't usually play with Staal on the PK though recently he has been getting some play time with these guys.

-Staal plays with Cooke and Kennedy. These two are a small downgrade over Sully and Dupuis. Even if Staal was playing on line 2 the upgrade of his linemates would only be marginal.

-Bylsma has expressed interest in getting Staal more offensively involved and has wanted to try to get Staal some play time with Crosby or Malkin. There have been a few times where Crosby and Staal have been experimented with over the past few months though I don't think they can be as effective playing with each other. Also Malkin and Staal were suppose to start together last season but injuries kept them apart for a lot of the time.

I think Staal is a potential 80 point player. Perhaps he won't be able to reach those numbers on the Pens' team as it currently is but I don't think 70 is out of the question. However, in order for this to happen he will need to get more play time in the top 6. And he won't have a full time job in the top 6 unless the Pens can get someone who can play the 3rd line center role well.

I think one way that the Pens could get Staal more involved offensively, and something that is realistic considering their current roster, is if they play him part time in the top six and part time on line 3. I could see something like this working out:

Dupuis - Crosby - Sullivan
Staal - Crosby - Sullivan
Cooke - Staal - Kennedy
Cooke - Dupuis - Kennedy

Basically what I'm saying is that they'd role out any of these 4 line combinations in a single game. The Penguins are flexible enough in their chemistry that they can move people around the line up pretty easily. You could also substitute Crosby and Sullivan for Malkin and Neal. This would be nice since it would give Staal an opportunity to create offense, which he is very capable of, and it also allows him to play an important defensive role for the Pens.

[Maaaasquito]

his role is shutdown center he is matched against other top lines

Alright let me go about this in a different way then, how many shut down centers can score 70 points? I understand that his role doesn't change with Malkin/Crosby in the line up, he still is utilized to shut down the oppositions top lines. So if he's used in a defensive role, can you reasonably expect him to post 70 points, considering that all of the 70-point players in the league are all in offensive roles?

you have to look at seasonal averages when you are determining what is being done during a season other wise you are extrapolating which according to you is a no no

There's a difference in extrapolating points compared to making a statement... You're saying that he posted 50 points in 62 games, which means he will post 66 points in 82 games, you can't say that as a definitive statement... What I'm saying is that with Crosby in the line up, Staal's PP TOI is significantly lower, which is a definitive statement.

his pp icetime and production have remained relatively constant across the last 4 seasons

I agree with you, if they've remained relatively constant, which is why his production is relatively constant. You need to change something in order for the result to change. What's Staal going to change in order to go from a 50 point player that he is now to improve to 70?
My theory is that he needs to increase his PPP production in order to get to 70 as his ES point totals are already at maximum. But with Crosby and Malkin there I don't see how he can increase his PPP. Now if Crosby or Malkin is out that gives Staal more opportunity on the PP, which could be the spark that gets him to 70.

the main reason why hes actually never been remotely close to 70 points is that he has been learning how to integrate the offense into his game without his defensive game suffering for it thats not an over night process

See I would argue that his offensive game is nearly there, and that it was a lack of opportunity that is preventing him from getting to 70... With Crosby out of the line up that freed up that opportunity for him offensively. He became the 2nd line scorer and operated at a 0.9 point-per-game pace, when Crosby was in, the opportunity is taken away from him hence the 0.64 point production.

100% is a justification for that if its not 100% you cant make it as a blanket statement it has to be looked into further

But nothing in this world is 100%, but you can make reasonable statements of possibilities that are highly likely... Staal doesn't produce on the PPP, so why would you think that he's a 70 point player, when just 1 out 21 70-point players have picked up less than 20+PPP... I can't guarantee you 100% that Staal won't get 70-points, but I could say 95% isn't that believable enough?

cant take his 50 pace and then have his ppp average at its actual number from 2 seasons ago he actually paced 9 ppp this past season

For arguments sake I'll accept his 9 PPP pace, the thing is if you break it down... a lot of those PPP were produced when Crosby was not in the line up, once again I'm going back to the roles that he plays with/out Crosby.

With Crosby in the line up he registered only 1 PPP assist, when Crosby was out he registered 5 PPG and 1 PPA, so if you look at it from a production point of view, once again with Crosby in the line up his production drops off significantly.

So if Crosby is healthy for the full season, you can't really go and say he'll produce at a similar pace as this season when Crosby was out.

that is a nice statement but has absolutely zero to do with responding to what you quoted i asked you when you project letangs production for next season do you in any way shape or form use his ppg from this past season or not

I would use his ppg from this past season, just like how I would with any other player... but the thing is Staal's situation is different than Letangs. Staal had his competition reduced because of Crosby's injury, which opened up more offensive opportunity for him to produce this season. Hence why he went from a 50-point player to a pro-rated 66-point player this season... Letang didn't have that happen to him.

completely and totally false as crosby and malkin both played games for the pens this season and karlsson and byfuligen did not

besides your analogy falling apart there you need to take into account that defense ice time is a completely different animal from forward ice time not to mention chemistry the fact that we dont know if 1 or 2 defensemen will play on the first pp unit etc tons of moving parts which cant be predicted as accurately since they havent been on the team already

the moving parts that exist in the staal case have existed for 4 seasons now so predicting based on what has gone on is easier than making predictions based on thin air

What I'm arguing is opportunity... Letang has all the opportunity in the world to rack up a big score because he has little to no competition. Staal on the other hand has two of the world's best players ahead of him on the depth charts. So what I'm saying is that when you say Staal has 70 point potential with Malkin and Crosby ahead of him, is like me saying Letang can get 71 points by adding 2 of the world's best ahead of him on the depth charts... With that type of competition Letang would never be a 71 point player. With Crosby and Malkin ahead of him Staal will never be a 70 point player...