Reply With QuoteHow do you know that?Originally Posted by blayze
I don't think you can just look purely at ice-time, because Staal also plays a very defensive role with the team as well... Just cause he gets the 3rd highest amount of ice-time on the team doesn't mean that it's going to translate into points... Just cause he's on the PP with Crosby/Malkin doesn't mean he's going to get points... I would also argue that with Crosby/Malkin out with serious injuries the last couple of seasons, Staal was utilized as the replacement to "fill the gap", If Crosby and Malkin were healthy, the ice-time drops...
If you look at it completely from a numbers perspective, if on the PP it's Crosby/Malkin/Neal/Staal/Letang well every PP goal scored there's only 3 points awarded, if you break it down the majority of the time it's going to go to Crosby/Malkin, so if those 2 juggernaut picks up PPP in 50% of the time, then that leaves little for everyone else despite garnering the same amount of ice-time as Crosby and Malkin...
What you have to do is break it down to %age of team points IMO.
Crosby
05-06: 102 of 676 (15.1%)
06-07: 120 of 735 (16.3%)
07-08: 72 of 667 (10.8%) *53 games
08-09: 103 of 706 (14.6%)
09-10: 109 of 682 (16.0%)
10-11: 66 of 618 (10.7%) *41 games
11-12: 37 of 746 (5.0%) *22 games
So generally speaking a healthy Crosby accumulates roughly 15-16% of the Pens points.
Malkin
06-07: 85 of 735 (11.6%)
07-08: 106 of 667 (15.9%)
08-09: 113 of 706 (16.0%)
09-10: 77 of 682 (11.3%) *67 games
10-11: 37 of 618 (6.0%) *43 games
11-12: 109 of 746 (14.6%)
A healthy Malkin accumulates roughly 14-16% of the Pens points.
Staal
06-07: 45 of 735 (6.1%)
07-08: 28 of 667 (4.2%)
08-09: 49 of 706 (6.9%)
09-10: 49 of 682 (7.2%)
10-11: 30 of 618 (4.9%) *42 games
11-12: 50 of 746 (5.4%) *62 games
a healthy Staal accumulates roughly 6% of the Pens points.
That's the main problem is that Crosby and Malkin pretty much tally up 30% of the team's points, which leaves very little for everyone else. Now if you consider the competition as well, Neal, Kunitz, Letang, Kennedy, Cooke, Tangradi, Dupuis... there's not a lot to go spread to Staal...
In order for Staal to get 70 points at a rate of 6% of the team's production, the Pens would need to score 1167 points as a team (to put it into perspective they scored 746 this season while averaging a league-high 3.33 goals per game) and that's with Crosby taking up just 5% of the pie. If he gets back up to 15-16%, how is that even numerically going to be possible? In order for them to tally 1167 points, they'd need to average 5.21 goals per game.
Call me a pessimist but that ain't happening...
Last edited by Maaaasquito; April 20, 2012 at 9:11 PM.
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How do you know that?
They're also averaging 4.41 goals per game as well, which won't happen during the season...
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2006-81gp
2007-82gp
2008-82gp
2009-82gp
2010-42gp
2011-62gp.
Where'd you buy your crystal ball? and what do you know that we don't?
Factoring in his last 2 seasons, he's cleary trending upward.
Will he hit 80points next year? probably not. Could he? absolutely
the ice time i listed that you say i cant look at i absolutely can
when someone argues that with a healthy crosby and healthy malkin staal doesnt get top 6 ice time they are perpetuating a myth that has zero basis in fact which the ice time number show
as for all of those numbers they they arent guaranteed to predict the future
as of right now staal is the leading penguin in the playoffs
yes he plays a defensive role that doesnt mean he cant score as evidenced by an increase in production even though his pp time was cut by a minute this season
i think 70 when healthy is a good number given his role on this team and its make up
but as i said with better linemates and better ice time he has the potential for a ppg
but saying that i dont think he is due for a breakout because if his situation doesnt change thats only marginally better than his ppg production this season meaning if things dont change he has already broken out
From 2006-2010 Staal played in every game except 1. The past two seasons injuries were mostly a string of bad luck due to the preexisting injury he had getting infected a couple of times. I don't know why you would make an assumption such as this based on his past injury history.
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I'm not saying you can't "look" at the ice-time, I'm saying you can't use that as a main reason for forming your argument... Just because Staal averages the 3rd highest ice-time, doesn't mean he'll get the 3rd highest point totals... Also what I'm arguing is that because the Pens have had so many injuries to Crosby/Malkin the last couple of years, those ice-time numbers have been inflated. When Crosby/Malkin are both healthy, Staal won't average the same amount of ice-time as he does when Crosby/Malkin is out. He also has less scoring impact when both Crosby and Malkin are healthy as opposed to when one of them is out of the line up.
They don't guarantee the future, but it does give you a good indication as to what's the most logical explanation/outcome...
Yes he is leading the Pens in the playoffs, but they've also played just 1 team as well, the Flyers have tried to clamp down on Crosby/Malkin's lines, which has enabled Staal to face a lower quality of competition. They are also averaging a whopping 5.5 goals per game, that doesn't happen over a course of a full 82-game season.
So you can't just use playoff numbers and assume that they'll continue over a course the regular season.
1) They play the same team over the course of a series...
2) Regular season is 82-games not 7...
3) They won't face 4.94 GAA .844 SP goalie for 82 games a season...
4) Regular season occurs over the period of 6 months, not 2 weeks in which this series has occurred...
This is the trap that all poolies always fall into. The problem is POINT SCARCITY repeat after me. POINT SCARCITY! If Staal picks up 70, then it has to be taken from somewhere else, does Crosby drop back down to 80 then? Neal back down to 65, Letang down to 40? At the end of the day, Crosby and Malkin can't get 120 each and have Staal get 70 and Neal get 80... It just doesn't work that way.
Staal can certainly tally 70 points, but that will only happen if either Crosby or Malkin is out for a long period of time . If Malkin and Crosby is healthy, there will be no way that Staal tallies 70!
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Staal is a shutdown centre. It doesn't mean he's not good offensively (clearly he is) - the shutdown role is simply his best use. He's big, strong and agile, and easily over powers people. That is a very rare combination of attributes which makes him one of the best in the league at what he does. If he combined those attributes with the hands of a Getzlaf, then maybe his role would be different, but as I mentioned, I don't think he has that level of offensive potential. He plays against the opposing top line in EVERY game (which takes up a ton of energy), and he also spends time on the PK. Reporters ask Bylsma all the time and that is always his answer.
Staal will never have more offensive opportunity than he has had during the last 2 seasons with Crosby missing as much time as he has. Staal continues to get virtually zero powerplay time, even with Crosby out, and he will always get the sloppy seconds in terms of linemates because his main job is not an offensive role, so having skilled wingers is less important. This will only get worse with Crosby back, but the point is even when Crosby has been out, his offensive opportunity has been limited.
As for the injury comment, that was more tongue-in-cheek (I like to be bold for effect), although I'd personally feel very comfortable making that bet. He's injured his hand, his foot and his knee over the last 2 seasons... call it a hunch. You can say the same about Taylor Hall's "freak" injuries, and I'd also feel just as comfortable predicting that he also will never play a full season. Nothing scientific there, just a bold hunch.
Last edited by blayze; April 20, 2012 at 9:46 PM.
You mean kind of like this season and last season?
i never used it as a reason for my argument main or not
again i was dispelling the myth that jordan staal gets 3rd line ice time because he is the 3rd center on the team
nowhere in any of my arguments did i say that he would get his points because he gets the 3rd highest ice time much less that he would be 3rd in points based on that
im sorry but perhaps you should take the time to read the posts before you make such ridiculous accusations about what someone is saying
you grabbed and quoted a post and never bothered to see what i was responding to then you just made up and argument that i never even made
These are the numbers according to FrozenPool.
Start of year - Nov. 20 (Without Crosby): 20:29 overall and 2:59 on the PP
Nov 21 - Dec 5 (With Crosby): 20:03 and 1:06
Dec 6 - Mar 14 (Without Crosby): 20:07 and 1:59
Mar 15 - Apr 18 (With Crosby): 19:25 and 1:15
So I would argue the numbers do show that his offensive role is reduced when both Crosby/Malkin is in the line up. His overall ice-time remains fairly constant because of the SH/ES time that he plays, but the PP is what fluctuates with Crosby/Malkin in/out of the line up.
Another big area is the SOG.
Start of year - Nov. 20 (Without Crosby): 41 in 18 (2.28)
Nov 21 - Dec 5 (With Crosby): 14 in 8 (1.75)
Dec 6 - Mar 14 (Without Crosby): 59 in 22 (2.68)
Mar 15 - Apr 18 (With Crosby): 35 in 14 (2.5)
With Crosby (2.23 SOG per game), without Crosby (2.5 SOG per game)...
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if you are going to assume his injuries as automatic dont you need to do the same for crosby and malkin
Yes... and that's if everything else clicks too, like he stays healthy, and averages 20+ mins a game, plus 3+ on the PP and averages 2.5+ SOG per game.
He'll need a lot to go right before he's a safe 70+ point option...
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again with not bothering to read posts
Isn't this what you're arguing? that because he gets ice-time of a top 3 forward that's why he'll be a 70 point threat?
What I'm questioning you on is that ice-time doesn't not 100% correlate with point production...
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