Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: (1) New York Rangers vs (8) Ottawa Senators

[Big Ev]

By the "regular season stats mean nothing" logic, we should just throw out their regular season records and their 1 and 8 seeds. But you don't do that. The reason people are unanimously picking the Rangers is because of their #1 seed and their record.

Fact is on paper these teams are pretty damn close IMO. Only big difference is in goal, but as I have shown, Craig Anderson loves playing in MSG and Lundqvist is becoming a Luongo. Also the Sens can grind it out if need be, they don't just play "run and gun" all the time.

Let's breakdown each projected line and see how they compare to their counterparts (may be wrong on some Rangers lines):

Forwards

Greening-Spezza-Michalek <--> Hagelin-Richards-Gaborik

Pretty damn similar. Two rookie left wingers who are both speedsters and who have similar stats. Big difference is Greening is a big body who loves to hit and can play on any line. Hagelin is more dynamic offensively. Two goal scoring RW's with elite skating, Gaborik has the edge but he was invisible last year against Washington. Two all-star centres who have both gone the distance in the playoffs. Spezza has the edge by far right now IMO, whereas Richards has the cup ring.

Foligno-Turris-Alfredsson <--> Anisimov-Stepan-Callahan

Another very similar line IMO. Foligno and Anisimov are different players. Foligno has had the better season thus far, and he plays a rough checking game compared to Anisimov's more skilled game. Foligno is better suited for playoff hockey than AA. Turris and Stepan are two young C's who are not fully established yet. Stepan has the edge here as he is more proven, but both produced at a 50 point clip with their respective clubs. Turris had a nice first round last year with Phoenix. Now at RW we have both Captains. Alfredsson obviously has way more experience and has produced nicely this year. Callahan is more intense and has had a great year thus far. I think it's pretty even but I'd give the edge to Alfie as he has more experience and will be treating this like it's his last playoffs. Callahan is no slouch.

Erik Condra-Zack Smith-Chris Neil <--> Dubinsky-Boyle-Fedotenko

The Sens 3 forwards here play responsilbe defensively, and in the case of Smith and Neil, they both like to get dirty and finish their checks. Boyle and Dubinsky are similar players. I'd say Neil is the best playoff-type player out of all these guys and his health will be a key factor in this series. Fedotenko has vast playoff experience and a Cup GWG, so I would definitely give him the edge over Condra. Overall the Sens have two young bucks on this line with some nice pro playoff experience in Smith and Condra. Zack Smith IMO has the potential to be a big difference maker as he has shown he can score a clutch goal every now and then, and he can make a difference physically. Boyle is a big mother****er who is similar, but with more experience and savvy. Dubinsky can be a key contributor for the Rangers third line although he has had a down year (so far).

Daugavins-O'Brien-Winchester (Konopka) <--> Prust-Mitchell-Rupp

The Rangers have the edge here on the 4th line. Prust and Rupp are excellent role players who have experience. Rupp was key member of the Pens 2009 Cup team. Mitchell, I don't know much about at all so can't comment there. Daugavins, O'Brien, and Winchester all play very responsible games although neither one is a big checker. Winchester is excellent along the boards. Konopka, if he plays any games, will be out there only for a few minutes, but will be checking on every shift and looking to egg on his opponents. Daugavins and O'Brien are another two guys who have lots of pro playoff experience as well, both being key contributors in the Calder Cup run last year for Binghamton.

Defencemen

Kuba-Karlsson <--> McDonagh-Girardi

Another similar line. Nothing needs to be said about Karlsson. The Rangers don't have anybody to match him. Filip Kuba has played excellent hockey this year and has 24 games of playoff experience. He's a calm guy who can contribute a bit offensively. McDonagh and Girardi have been one of the best pairings in the NHL this year. McDonagh only has 5 games of playoff experience but should be solid. This pairing will block a lot of shots.

Cowen-Gonchar <--> Staal-Stralman

Cowen may be another candidate to have a breakout series. IMO he can be just as good as Staal in this one, as Staal hasn't had a consisteny year, obviously missing a lot of time due to a concussion. Cowen will be important here as he needs to impose his strength on the Rangers forwards. He led the Senators in PK time as a rookie, mainly due to his excellent D and big body. Gonchar is getting old but had a good bounce back year and can still move the puck. Lots of playoff experience and a Cup ring. Stralman is OK, not too familiar with him but a lot of people say he is vulnerable on D. Staal has the potential to be a shutdown force. Will also block a lot of shots. Overall I'd give the edge to Cowen-Gonchar given Staal's uncertain play. Cowen is uncertain himself given his lack of experience, but again he's one of the Bingo players with a Calder Cup ring.

Phillips-Carkner <--> Del Zotto-Bickel.

Phillips plays a reliable defensive game and has lots of playoff experience, including a Final run. Carkner is slow but will try to be physical and nasty out there. Scored a big goal for Ottawa against Pittsburgh in the 2010 playoffs. Del Zotto is a bright young offensive d-man, so that gives the Rangers a nice presence on their third pairing. I know nothing about Bickel.

Goalies

Anderson <--> Lundqvist

Obviously edge goes to Lundqvist as he is the best in the game (or one of). Lundqvist is 15-20 in his playoff career, with a .909 SV%, 2.60 GAA, and 3 shutouts. Anderson had a memorable playoffs two years ago with Colorado, as he carried the Avs to 6 games against the Sharks, including a masterful 51 save shutout. Anderson is 2-4 with a .933 SV%, 2.62 GAA, and 1 shutout. Much smaller sample size for Anderson.

Power Play

Alfredsson-Spezza-Michalek-Kuba-Karlsson <--> Gaborik-Stepan-Callahan-Del Zotto-Richards

Two very potent groups on paper, but Ottawa had the better unit in the regular season with an 18.2% PP compared to the Rangers 15.7%. Karlsson is the x-factor here, and he will have to get through the big bodies on the PK for the Rags.

Coaches

Paul MacLean - Mark Reeds - Dave Cameron <--> John Tortorella - Benoit Allaire - Mike Sullivan

Tortorella has the Cup ring with Tampa Bay, and MacLean has a Cup ring and another Final appearance with the Red Wings as an assistant. MacLean also won the UHL championship with the Quad City Mallards in 2001.

Mark Reeds and Dave Cameron both went to the Memorial Cup last year. Mike Sullivan made the playoffs once with Boston as head coach.

Summary

I'd say the Rangers do have more depth, but Ottawa has just as much, if not more, experience, and they compare favorably in terms of scoring forwards and bottom 6ers. Spezza and Karlsson are the two best players in the series. Rangers overall have a better team defence and that will be a key in this series along with Lundqvist. IMO the series could come down to special teams. As I said, Ranger should win, but I can't see it being a short series. The Rangers have lost to Washington in their last two playoffs, and Ottawa plays a similar style that may give them fits.

[blayze]

By the "regular season stats mean nothing" logic, we should just throw out their regular season records and their 1 and 8 seeds. But you don't do that. The reason people are unanimously picking the Rangers is because of their #1 seed and their record.

Way to take the words out of context and go to the other extreme...

You're also contradicting yourself, because you yourself seem to believe the Sens are going to win, yet you imply based on your comments that regular season records and seedings are important... so which is it?

I'd also wholeheartedly disagree with your last sentence... people aren't necessarily picking the Rangers because of their seed or record... it's because they're a BETTER TEAM. If your argument about people picking solely based on rankings made sense, then everyone would also be picking the Blues to make the Western Conference finals.

If you want to break down Rags vs Sens... here's how I see it:

Goaltending - no comment needed

Defense - sure Karlsson's an offensive stud, but the playoffs aren't about defensemen flying through neutral zones making outlet passes... it's about DEFENSE and GRIT. I have MUCH more confidence in the Rangers depth on defense than I do the Sens.
Rags top 4: Staal / Girardi / McDonaugh / MDZ
Sens top 4: Karlsson / Kuba / Gonchar / Cowen
In terms of defensive depth - are you kidding me? Rags win this one EASILY.

Offense
-Rangers have two threatening lines... Sens have one (maybe one and a half).
-Rangers also have better skilled grinders like Dubie and Cally.
-Rangers also have leadership in proven cup winner Richards, and that kind of leadership experience is indispensable. Who (important) has ever won anything on the Sens?

At the end of the day we both agree Rags should take it, but I don't see this going the distance.

That's besides the point anyway, my beef was more against throwing all these meaningless regular season statistics as support behind your Sens

[Carcillo]

Ottawa will give the Rangers a run for their money but in the end Rangers' defense and better goaltending will triumph. Rangers in 6.

[Big Ev]

Defense - sure Karlsson's an offensive stud, but the playoffs aren't about defensemen flying through neutral zones making outlet passes... it's about DEFENSE and GRIT.

I guess Paul Coffey was just useless in the playoffs then. Karlsson will have a big impact with his offensive abilities.

Rags top 4: Staal / Girardi / McDonaugh / MDZ
Sens top 4: Karlsson / Kuba / Gonchar / Cowen
In terms of defensive depth - are you kidding me? Rags win this one EASILY.

I'd say the systems wins. Del Zotto isn't in their Top 4. IMO their Top 4 rival eachother with the Sens being more mobile. The Rangers D are younger. This season, there isn't that much of a difference between Cowen and Staal, and the experience and poise of Kuba and Gonchar will be big. After Girardi and McDonagh, the Rangers aren't amazing on D. Neither are the Sens though. In terms of pure defence, it's the Rangers but again, that's how they were coached. If all they do is focus on D, they won't do much these playoffs.

-Rangers have two threatening lines... Sens have one (maybe one and a half).

As I said, I don't see a big difference at all between Hagelin-Richards-Gaborik, Anisimov-Stepan-Callahan and Greening-Spezza-Michalek, Foligno-Turris-Alfredsson. They compare pretty equally if you read my previous post.

Plus with Karlsson, that adds an element that the Rangers simply do not have. He can improve any line on the Sens with his offence. The Sens have the most offence from D out of any team this season.

-Rangers also have better skilled grinders like Dubie and Cally

They do but a guy like Foligno is just as good as Dubinsky who has regressed.

-Rangers also have leadership in proven cup winner Richards, and that kind of leadership experience is indispensable. Who (important) has ever won anything on the Sens?

As I said, Gonchar won a Cup, and Alfredsson, Spezza, Phillips, and Neil all went to the Final. No they didn't win, but they still got there. The Rangers have Richards and Fedotenko in terms of Final experience.

Any way you slice it, these teams are close IMHO. Regular season and historical statistics do mean something. The Sens love playing in MSG. Some teams just have other teams' number.

[Big Ev]

People are underestimating Anderson in this one.

[PocketRockets05]

I think people are looking way too much into the fact Ottawa was 3-1 against the Rangers in the regular season. Montreal was 4-2 against Ottawa in the regular season - I don't think that record should mean people should be picking Montreal over Ottawa in a 7-game series, or saying the series would be close just based on those regular season games. Sure, any series could be close, but I think it's more likely this series will be a 5-6 gamer for the Rangers as opposed to going the distance.

Big Ev, I'm not sure how you can say Spezza "has the edge by far" right now on B.Rich. IMO, I believe it's pretty even, if not a slight edge to B.Rich. If you ask me who I'd rather have on my team in a 7-game series during the playoffs gimme B.Rich all day long IMO. Defensively, I'd rather have B.Rich. Offensively, Spezza is more talented (even though you can also argue B.Rich is more consistent - past 2 years he outpointed Spezza, but I'll still say Spezza has the higher offensive calibre just from watching him), but B.Rich is no slouch. He's shown the high upside, and from March 1 onwards Spezza had 13 points in last 15 games, whereas B.Rich had 24 points in 21 games during that timeframe so you can say B.Rich is the hotter guy going into the playoffs. This isn't a shot at Spezza, absolutely a great player, but B.Rich is definitely at (or around) that level too in terms of weighing all dimensions of a player.

The Rangers previous playoff experience has also been discussed. Yes, they have busted out in the playoffs in recent years to Washington, that is true, but always as the lower seed with no home ice, and they never had a guy like B.Rich. Before they were relying on Dubinsky as their #1C playing with Gaborik, which isn't his natural role and it affected Gabby's value too. I think B.Rich will be the difference maker here, and it's a trickling effect. Raises Gabby's value as well as him and B.Rich finally showed chemistry down the stretch on the same line, whereas for a large part of the year before they were playing separately. Also, for the most part all the Rangers top D guys are all in their primetime years, and I believe have matured even more and are better now than how they were in previous playoff years against Washington.

IMO, I think Rangers will take it in 5. Anything could happen tho and for it to be longer than that, I think either Lundqvist will have to play below average, and/or Anderson will have to stand on his head, but I see Lundqvist not playing below average, and Anderson playing well, but not standing on his head given his up and down season so I'd rather bank on the former than the latter.

[Big Ev]

I think people are looking way too much into the fact Ottawa was 3-1 against the Rangers in the regular season. Montreal was 4-2 against Ottawa in the regular season - I don't think that record should mean people should be picking Montreal over Ottawa in a 7-game series, or saying the series would be closed just based on those regular season games. Sure, any series could be close, but I think it's more likely this series will be a 5-6 gamer for the Rangers as opposed to going the distance.

I wouldn't have compared the two rosters if I thought the regular season H2H record was everything. I just think the Rangers are being overrated. Target Lundqvist, and the rest will crumble.

[PocketRockets05]

I wouldn't have compared the two rosters if I thought the regular season H2H record was everything. I just think the Rangers are being overrated. Target Lundqvist, and the rest will crumble.

Fair enough, but why do you think they're overrated? I think 109 points should be respected and isn't flukey. It's not like they play in the Southeast and got to feast on lower-end teams 6x each, they play in arguably the toughest division in the league, and still were able to post the numbers they did so I'm not sure why or how they'd be overrated..

[Big Ev]

Fair enough, but why do you think they're overrated? I think 109 points should be respected and isn't flukey. It's not like they play in the Southeast and got to feast on lower-end teams 6x each, they play in arguably the toughest division in the league, and still were able to post the numbers they did so I'm not sure why or how they'd be overrated..

I just think the Rangers success relies on Lundqvist alone, and he has not yet proven himself when it matters. The Rangers offence and PP also have tendencies to dry up, and they have tendencies to play careless with the puck. Same thing with Ottawa, but they don't rely on their goaltender to win them games all the time like the Rangers do.

[Big Ev]

and to be honest, if Ottawa played Montreal, Toronto, or Boston in the playoffs, I wouldn't be confident in their abilities because they have clear mental hurdles against those teams right now. They don't have those against the Rangers. They are confident in their ability to beat the Rangers, especially on the road.

[Big Ev]

Apparently Matt Gilroy will play game 1 instead of Carkner, so their 3rd pairing takes a big hit defensively.

also the first line in practice is Michalek-Spezza-Zibanejad...not sure why

[hockeyrobot]

Can we get the thoughts of any Sens homers from this board?

[littleranger]

This is a response to Big_Ev's thoughts on the series. It's pretty clear that he's a Sens fan, and well I'm going to make it pretty clear that I'm a Ranger fan.

Forwards

Greening-Spezza-Michalek <--> Hagelin-Richards-Gaborik

Both of the lines hold a rookie while being led by veteran all-stars. Richards has been playing a terrific game since being placed in-between the speedsters with 24 points in his last 21 games. Gaborik has played his first 82-game season and was quite explosive back in 2002-03 in his first playoff experience (while being healthy). The reason Gaborik struggled last postseason was due to playing through an injury the entire year. Spezza has proven especially this year that he can be a leader and his nifty dekes have taken over the highlight reel what seems like every day of the week. Spezza did go through three periods of 7+ games without scoring a goal this season. Michalek tallied an incredible 35 goals this year, even with a pretty nasty 12 game goalless slump between January and February.

Foligno-Turris-Alfredsson <--> Anisimov-Stepan-Callahan

Both lines have been pivotal for their respective teams success this season. While the Rangers second line has been rotating through the year, this line has established quite a bit of success recently. Although, this is not the set line as Dubinsky sometime rotates in to create a crash-and-bang shift. Anisimov has shown at times he can be an explosive scorer with some jaw-dropping dangles and creative passes. Foligno is a favourite of mine because he plays the game hard every shift. In the second half he has struggled to tickle to twine with only 3 goals in his last 30 games. Foligno is a player I would prefer to have on the ice to play smart hockey, but Anisimov definitely has the offensive edge. Stepan and Callahan both play similar games and both remind me of a young Chris Drury but Callahan has the additional element of finishing his checks. I think we’ll see a lot of the Rangers second line up against the Sens top line and Spezzas body will take a beating. Alfredsson is a terrific playoff performer against anyone but Toronto. I expect him to have a tremendous impact with both his leadership and offensive talent but to think that we’ll see the Alfy of 5 years ago is preposterous.

Erik Condra-Zack Smith-Chris Neil <--> Dubinsky-Boyle-Fedotenko

The Sens third line is one of my favourites in the league. They do it all. They crash and bang while grinding one into the net more often than not. Condra and Smith have AHL playoff experience, but this is a whole different monster. Neil and Fedotenko both have seen quite a bit of NHL postseason so I won’t say who has the edge there. But, Dubinsky and Boyle have been clicking lately and Boyle even has five goals in his last nine. This line is going into the playoffs with a couple of hot sticks which could be the difference between these two very similar trios.

Daugavins-O'Brien-Winchester (Konopka) <--> Prust-Mitchell-Rupp

I’ll just slighty adjust Big_Ev’s analysis: The Rangers have the edge here on the 4th line. Prust and Rupp are excellent role players who have experience. Rupp was key member of the Pens 2009 Cup team. Mitchell is one of the rare fourth liners that can create offense while being responsible at both ends. Daugavins, O'Brien, and Winchester all play very responsible games although neither one is a big checker. Winchester is excellent along the boards. Konopka, if he plays any games, will be out there only for a few minutes, but will be checking on every shift and will useless aside from that. Daugavins and O'Brien are another two guys who have lots of pro playoff experience as well, both being key contributors in the Calder Cup run last year for Binghamton.

Defencemen

Kuba-Karlsson <--> McDonagh-Girardi

As much as I love Karlsson’s offensive skills, I prefer the McDonagh pairing in regards to defence. This is hard to compare cause it’s like apples and oranges, but McDonagh and Girardi have been one of, if not the best defensive pairing in the league this year. Both love to hit, block shots and McD has one of the filthiest toe drags in the league. Kuba has looked fairly rock solid this year but I don’t think he’s as good as his plus-26 gives him credit for. What would his +/- look like if Karlsson wasn’t setting up a goal every shift?

Cowen-Gonchar <--> Staal-Stralman

Marc Staal hasn’t been the same player since returning from his concussion, but I do believe he’s been consistent enough to be the best defenseman out of these four. Over the past few weeks, Staal has been much more comfortable jumping into plays and although he only has five points in 46 games this year, I think he can contribute a point or two in this series. Stralman is somewhat of a question mark in his own end, but he has played well enough at both ends to be in the lineup over Eminger, Woywitka, Erixon, etc. Lots of people have the mentality that he’s weak defensively, but he really hasn’t been since returning from a few healthy scratches. Gonchar has played well enough at both ends, but hes nowhere close to where he was in other past playoff. Cowen has really impressed me this season and looks a lot more comfortable on the ice than he did at the beginning of the year IMO.

Phillips-Carkner <--> Del Zotto-Bickel

Former-first-overall-pick Chris Phillips is one of the most gifted defensive d-men in the league. Carkner and Bickel both play similar games in that they’ll crush some bodies and be decent enough when defending. Del Zotto has played quality game after quality game for NY and Torts even thought he should have made the all-star game. He’s a strong offensive d-man, but his defense has been as good, if not even better than his offensive abilities this year. He’ll play twenty minutes a night and rotate between second and third pairing depending on the success of Staal and Stralman.

Goalies

Anderson <--> Lundqvist

The King is an obvious finalist for the Vezina and although he has struggled in the past few weeks, the team has likely been living it up knowing they’ve clinched in one of the cities with the most distractions in the world. Lundy hasn’t had success in years past in the playoffs, but the teams simply were not even close to where they are now. Roszival, Malik, Kaspar, etc. were all disasters at the back end compared to who and what they have now. Also, they are getting much more responsible hockey in their own end as it’s not a rare sight to see even Gaborik fighting for pucks behind the goal line. Compared to Gomez, Zherdev, etc. doing god knows what in years past. Lundy was also a decent goaltender at the Olympics which is a pretty big stage if I’m not mistaken. Anderson has only truly been an NHL starter for two years and hasn’t had much playoff experience. It is difficult to say which Anderson will show up although I believe he will be pretty steady throughout the series.

Power Play

Alfredsson-Spezza-Michalek-Kuba-Karlsson <--> Gaborik-Richards-Callahan-Del Zotto-Stepan

Both powerplays have tremendous offensive talent, but the Sens has been more consistent throughout the season. One must note that the Rangers are operating at 21% since February 9th which is pretty well when Richards decided to play hockey. It is also worth noting that the Rangers are 5th in the league in PK success where as the Sens are ranked 20th.

Coaches

Paul MacLean - Mark Reeds - Dave Cameron <--> John Tortorella - Benoit Allaire - Mike Sullivan

Big_Ev sums it up pretty well: Tortorella has the Cup ring with Tampa Bay, and MacLean has a Cup ring and another Final appearance with the Red Wings as an assistant. MacLean also won the UHL championship with the Quad City Mallards in 2001.

Mark Reeds and Dave Cameron both went to the Memorial Cup last year. Mike Sullivan made the playoffs once with Boston as head coach.

Summary

The Rangers have a much better defensive system and their goaltender plays out of this world hockey for the most part. Ottawa will need to score early and score often to have a chance in this series. New York has an incredible record of 30-0-3 when leading after two periods so they are really talented at playing trap hockey when up heading into the third. I’m going to have to say (as a homer) that the Rangers will win this series but the amount of games is undetermined. I think they can keep it short as long as they can find a way to keep the Sens top line out of the offensive zone for the majority of games.

[supaguy46]

I just think the Rangers success relies on Lundqvist alone, and he has not yet proven himself when it matters. The Rangers offence and PP also have tendencies to dry up, and they have tendencies to play careless with the puck. Same thing with Ottawa, but they don't rely on their goaltender to win them games all the time like the Rangers do.

Martin Biron has a respectable 12-6-2 record this season.

[duballstar014]

I really wanted to pick the Sens here, but I think the Rangers are going to pull it off in 7. Derek Stepan is going to be a clutch player in this series.