Schneider or Luongo next year and beyond???

[Puckhead]

I may have an opportunity to pick up Schneider in my keeper league, which has GAA, SV% as our goaltending stats. So, who is the better fantasy asset going forward Schneider or Luongo?

I think it is safe to say Schneider will be a starter somewhere next season, and he looks very ready, but does he put up better numbers?

Need some help Goalie Posters!

Puck

[ross10019]

Luongo is always a monster when it comes to GAA and SV%, despite periodic struggles. Plus he plays on a fantastic team.

Schneider is a better bet because of age difference, and you have to figure he'll be traded in the offseason if not before. The question is, to which team?

If I had to decide right now, it would depend on how much of a contender you are right now. If you are a contender this year and the next 2 years, I might keep Luongo because of his contract (guaranteeing that he stays in Vancouver) and he should give you guaranteed great peripheral for at least 2-3 years, and he's obviously more proven as a workhorse starter. If your horizon is more 2 or so years out, then I'd go I Schneider only because you know wherever he goes he's going to be a workhorse and likely to give pretty solid peripheral stats.

My guess is Schneider goes to Tampa and he ends up consistently putting up 2.40/0.920+ numbers over the next 10 years of his career, and he could edge towards much more elite numbers his best seasons, think 2.10/0.930. On that basis, this to me is not an easy decision despite Luongo being a proven elite goalie.

[Puckhead]

Great analysis Ross, much appreciated. Ironically, I am thinking I am contender in that 2-3 mark, but with some luck, it could be sooner. If I knew with any certainty that it Schneider ends up in Tampa, it makes this a much easier decision. My worry is, he ends up in Columbus. This deal would no doubt lead to other deals for me, so it could end up changing the look of my team considerably. Thanks again for your input!

[JHM]

Luongo. You know what you've got.

Schneider. Very interesting. The ducks all appeared to be lined in a row, however, where prospects are concerned, we never really know what we have until we see it performing in the new environment.

Are his fine results a bi-product of the system? Vancouver is a fine team.

Consider carefully, Kipper & Toskala. Both from San Jose to new teams.

Kipper thrived and became a star. He went to a pretty good team with a pretty good system and was ready for the challenge at hand. Perhaps, we might say he was in a position to continue to grow, while achieving.

Toskala went to a struggling team. Lots of pressure was placed upon him. Although he appeared ready for a challenge, perhaps the challenge didn't allow him to grow at a proper pace. The fire was too hot, all at once.

So, Schneider someplace else... I think three times in five he'll turn out real nice, but that leaves two times in five when the results are just mediocre.

[One87]

Luongo is always a monster when it comes to GAA and SV%, despite periodic struggles. Plus he plays on a fantastic team.

Schneider is a better bet because of age difference, and you have to figure he'll be traded in the offseason if not before. The question is, to which team?

If I had to decide right now, it would depend on how much of a contender you are right now. If you are a contender this year and the next 2 years, I might keep Luongo because of his contract (guaranteeing that he stays in Vancouver) and he should give you guaranteed great peripheral for at least 2-3 years, and he's obviously more proven as a workhorse starter. If your horizon is more 2 or so years out, then I'd go I Schneider only because you know wherever he goes he's going to be a workhorse and likely to give pretty solid peripheral stats.

My guess is Schneider goes to Tampa and he ends up consistently putting up 2.40/0.920+ numbers over the next 10 years of his career, and he could edge towards much more elite numbers his best seasons, think 2.10/0.930. On that basis, this to me is not an easy decision despite Luongo being a proven elite goalie.

You roll with Luongo, knowing what you have. You have zero idea as to where Schneider ends up. You only know that he has the ability, which may not matter much if he has shotty defenders.

[ross10019]

Luongo. You know what you've got.

Schneider. Very interesting. The ducks all appeared to be lined in a row, however, where prospects are concerned, we never really know what we have until we see it performing in the new environment.

Are his fine results a bi-product of the system? Vancouver is a fine team.

Consider carefully, Kipper & Toskala. Both from San Jose to new teams.

Kipper thrived and became a star. He went to a pretty good team with a pretty good system and was ready for the challenge at hand. Perhaps, we might say he was in a position to continue to grow, while achieving.

Toskala went to a struggling team. Lots of pressure was placed upon him. Although he appeared ready for a challenge, perhaps the challenge didn't allow him to grow at a proper pace. The fire was too hot, all at once.

So, Schneider someplace else... I think three times in five he'll turn out real nice, but that leaves two times in five when the results are just mediocre.

Point taken, but in my mind Schneider is a much more highly regarded goalie than Toskala ever was, in terms of having the tools to succeed. There are not many pundits who are ascribing Schneider's excellent numbers as primarily due to the fact he plays for the Canucks, he has been playing great even on nights when the D in front of him has underperformed. Count me as one who thinks it's nowhere near 40/60 that he "pulls a Toskala instead of a Kipper", I think it's more like 5/95, but we shall see.

While I agree with everyone that Luongo is the proven elite guy (no-brainer), it's not like Schneider's a "prospect", he's 26 and has excelled at every level including the NHL. You also have to contextualize here, in reply to my post Puckhead said he in fact is looking at a 2-3 year window to become a contender, to me that means keep Schneider and trade Luongo for big value now, and then reap the rewards when Schneider becomes a workhorse elite goalie in this league.

[blayze]

As much as I loathe Luongo, and truthfully I do believe Schneider is the better goalie talent-wise, there are way too many variables surrounding Schneider to justify taking him over Luongo right now.

Will he or won't he get traded?
If he gets traded, will it be to a contender, or a shitty team with poor defense?
Can he handle the workload of a full season? Huge diff between playing 60+ and 20+.

With Luongo you know what you're getting... he'll play 55-60 games, collect his 30+ wins and maintain respectable ratios. IF Schneider gets traded, Luongo's value even increases.

You've gotta stick with Luongo here if it's one or the other. If you can pick up Schneider for free, then that's a no brainer.

[Rylant]

I agree with most of the posters here. I also think that Schneider is amazing, but his future is so unclear. It would be different if you knew where he was going, and YES, he will be going somewhere, but until you know where, try not to throw up and go with Luongo.

Rylant

[4horsemen]

You have zero idea as to where Schneider ends up.

Sure I do, there are 30 teams in the NHL and here are some he won't be on anytime soon:

NYR
Montreal
Pittsburgh
Nashville
Philly
Carolina
LA
SJ
Boston
Ana
Buffalo
St Louis

Here are a few more destinations that would surprise me but aren't out of the question:

Calgary
Ottawa
Detroit
Toronto
Washington
Minny
Dallas

Here are some possible destinations:

Phoenix
Winnipeg
Chicago
NYI
Florida


Here are the most probable teams:

Tampa
New Jersey
Edmonton
Columbus
Colorado

So I'd say I feel confident that I can narrow the list of potential Schneider destinations to 10 teams quite easily. I also figure that Vancouver will not want to deal Schneider to a Western rival so give the Eastern teams a big bump. This gets the list down to a very reasonable number! Tampa and NJ seem like the best fits from my perspective.

[kbro]

When listing "the possible destinations", you missed one - Vancouver.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he's leaving town. If Vancouver can't get a big return for him, I don't really see him moving. The depth in goal is something the Canucks need IMO, as proven by October/November, and a few playoff series struggles with the Blackhawks and Bruins. It gives Vancouver an insurance policy that few teams have in the event of an injury too.

Vancouver is among the top teams in the league, but given the current state of affairs with their division rivals, who the Canucks play most of their games against, I think their stock is inflated a little. I think they need all the help they can get, and if Schneider's only going to fetch a Lars Eller type return (see Halak trade), I don't see it happening.

[Puckhead]

While we don't know where Schneider ultimately ends up, what we are forgetting is that Toskala was traded to Toronto, whereas Schneider will get to go to whatever team he chooses via free agency on July 1st. Of course money will be a factor, but he knows he will be the number 1 starter of the teams interested in him in the summer.

Most teams seem set, or have tough contracts that are hard move between the pipes, but make no mistake, Schneider will leave Vancouver, unless they can somehow move Luongo, and nobody sees that happening. He wants to be a starter, and he deserves to be a starter. While he may not be as good stats wise as he is in Vancouver, he is the type of goalie, that makes a difference every night, and on a team like Edmonton, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Washington, and a host of others he could mean a lot more.

Puck

[tripel]

When listing "the possible destinations", you missed one - Vancouver.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he's leaving town. If Vancouver can't get a big return for him, I don't really see him moving. The depth in goal is something the Canucks need IMO, as proven by October/November, and a few playoff series struggles with the Blackhawks and Bruins. It gives Vancouver an insurance policy that few teams have in the event of an injury too.

Vancouver is among the top teams in the league, but given the current state of affairs with their division rivals, who the Canucks play most of their games against, I think their stock is inflated a little. I think they need all the help they can get, and if Schneider's only going to fetch a Lars Eller type return (see Halak trade), I don't see it happening.

He is an offer-sheet eligible RFA this summer, and UFA next summer. At most he will be in Vancouver for one more year, but I would give very good odds that he is not a canuck after the upcoming draft.

Ross & 4horseman are correct
I bet it's Jersey or TB and he will be a very strong asset with either.
I would still go with Luongo if you're contending though

[4horsemen]

When listing "the possible destinations", you missed one - Vancouver.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he's leaving town. If Vancouver can't get a big return for him, I don't really see him moving. The depth in goal is something the Canucks need IMO, as proven by October/November, and a few playoff series struggles with the Blackhawks and Bruins. It gives Vancouver an insurance policy that few teams have in the event of an injury too.

Vancouver is among the top teams in the league, but given the current state of affairs with their division rivals, who the Canucks play most of their games against, I think their stock is inflated a little. I think they need all the help they can get, and if Schneider's only going to fetch a Lars Eller type return (see Halak trade), I don't see it happening.

In theory your argument is sound but in practice it will be almost impossible to execute. I've written a few longer responses on this in the past but the long and short of it is that there is an inverse relationship between the salary of the starting goalie and the salary of the backup (the more money the starter makes the less the team has to spend on a backup). There is very clear statistical evidence for this, simply take a look at the average cost of a backup goalie on the teams with the top 10 starting goalie contracts.

Vancouver is hard up against the salary cap, so of all teams in the league they are in the absolute worst position to sign a backup like Schneider. He is an RFA this summer and I'd be willing to bet that Vancouver would have to decline any offer sheet over 2.5 mil. This would be an easy number for a team to throw at Schneider and I'd be shocked if someone didn't so there is very, very, very little chance that Vancouver can re-sign him and they know it.

The question then becomes; do they roll with him in the playoffs and go all out for the cup knowing they might lose him to an offer sheet or do they trade him before the deadline? If I'm Vancouver I think I'm holding him for the playoffs and taking the compensation picks this summer.