Hockey Pool Geek and Midseason Projections

[Hey Robbie]

Anyone have success generating rankings based on Mid-season Guide stats? I'm not sure if I have found the right set of stats to use, because one of the stat sets with Dobber in the name looks like the pre-season set of projections (eg Crosby with 100+ points), and the other has all players prorated to 82 games, and has some unrealistic numbers as well given the first half (eg Perry over ppg).

Thanks for any help!

[mrgrieves]

Same problem here. There was a separate link briefly last week clearly labeled as the 'midseason' projections. It didn't work at the time but it is gone now. Did you email support?

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Hey guys,

They should be there -- I just double checked and they look to be working fine. Can you take another look and let me know if you've got any more problems?

[mrgrieves]

I see them now, thanks HPG!

[Hey Robbie]

I see them now, thanks HPG!

Likewise for me - thanks for the quick fix!

[Shoeless]

Hmmm H. Sedin projected to get 69 points in the next 38 games - I like this system - I own him.

[Pengwin7]

Hey HPG - did I see a tweet correct a few months ago?
Did you move your zero?!?

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Shoeless, where are you getting that number? I just checked both the stat set on HPG and in Dobber's guide, and both show Hank hitting 101.

You betcha, Pengwin! Figured out an analytically consistent way to do it!

[Shoeless]

In one of my leagues.

Stats Used: Season Forecast Based on Dobberhockey Projections and Season-to-date Actuals.

Player Position Team GP G A +/- PIM SOG PPP HITS BKS FOW
Henrik Sedin C VAN 82 25 94 35 71 170 42 28 17 875

Paul - Any chance of getting ytd data to do rankings more frequently than once a week? I love that tool and use it to track risers and fallers particularly in the area of the FA bubble. 7 days can sometimes mean 4 and occasionally 5 games of data that can really indicate an opportunity to jump on a guy or inversely bench a guy who has gone cold.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Ahhh there's the confusion. The stat set you're using is the forecast (which is Dobber's preseason projections reconciled with the season-to-date actuals... at game 0 they're the projections, at game 82 they're the final and everywhere in between they're proportional) rather than the midseason guide stats. Soon we'll have forecasts based on the midseason projections too.

We're already working on getting daily stat imports, Rick. Should have it done within a couple weeks.

[Shoeless]

Ahhh there's the confusion. The stat set you're using is the forecast (which is Dobber's preseason projections reconciled with the season-to-date actuals... at game 0 they're the projections, at game 82 they're the final and everywhere in between they're proportional) rather than the midseason guide stats. Soon we'll have forecasts based on the midseason projections too.

We're already working on getting daily stat imports, Rick. Should have it done within a couple weeks.

Oops, my bad assumption - got it now - thanks. Much better - Mark Stuart is now ranked #3 in HPG value for my league - things are as they should be - not sure how he is going to triple his shots on goal, PIM's, hits and blocks in the 2nd half but as an owner I am thrilled.

So off to find out what I did wrong this time.

Edit: actually Stuart and Gorges appear to be anomolies in the top hundred or so as I quickly scanned the ranking - I did run it again with the same result.

[pensfan]

Is there any way to get HPG reports to include 3YP and LTU values. This would be a kick ass improvement

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Yuck, server issue ongoing! Once we've got that cleared up, the comments below will be valid!

Thanks for pointing those out, Rick. When we're projecting out 50+ stats for more than 700 players, a few slip through the cracks. We've updated the stat set to clear those guys (and a few others) up.

We've also added a new stat set, which shows just the balance of the season, if you want to look at who the better pickups (according to Dobber and the peripheral stats we generate) down the stretch.

pensfan, it's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure how we could implement it such that it was meaningful. After all, Dobber's 3YP and Upside numbers are just in points, and managing your team to maximize just points is the mistake most GMs make that www.hockeypoolgeek.com exists to address! I think it wouldn't be consistent for us to present that information -- though if I were to recommend how you go about doing so, it would be like this:

Take the players HPG score and divide it by their P, to give a rough HPG/P ratio. Apply that ratio to their 3YP and LTU, and use those to evaluate. Let's be clear: this would be nonsense and hodgepodge, and not statistically defensible methodology and thus a departure from how we do things on the site. So use at your own risk -- I certainly wouldn't do it! Much better to use the What If? tool on the site to evaluate what a player's value would be...

[Hey Robbie]

We've also added a new stat set, which shows just the balance of the season, if you want to look at who the better pickups (according to Dobber and the peripheral stats we generate) down the stretch.

Fantastic idea!

[pensfan]

pensfan, it's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure how we could implement it such that it was meaningful. After all, Dobber's 3YP and Upside numbers are just in points, and managing your team to maximize just points is the mistake most GMs make that www.hockeypoolgeek.com exists to address! I think it wouldn't be consistent for us to present that information -- though if I were to recommend how you go about doing so, it would be like this:

Take the players HPG score and divide it by their P, to give a rough HPG/P ratio. Apply that ratio to their 3YP and LTU, and use those to evaluate. Let's be clear: this would be nonsense and hodgepodge, and not statistically defensible methodology and thus a departure from how we do things on the site. So use at your own risk -- I certainly wouldn't do it! Much better to use the What If? tool on the site to evaluate what a player's value would be...

I get what you're saying. I like to have some additional info embedded in the spreadsheets I use when I draft. I commonly add age, contract info and Dobbers LTU & 3YP just to have extra data to use when drafting (not in a "meaningful way" but as a peripheral item to use when deciding between otherwise equal players)

Thanks for the response.