Drew Doughty: Overrated

[baumer]

He is 21 years old and this is his fourth year in the league. Already has a 59 point campaign under his belt and its the 7th of November.

If you were expecting 70 points, then you aimed way too high. If you were hoping for 50-60 points, they you will most certainly get it by the end of the year.

Its a slow start, nothing else.

I'd bet a lot of money he doesn't hit 50 points this year. I don't think he comes close. You have not only drank the kool aid, but you helped stir it and serve it.

[BlackGold]

IMO it WAS the concussion. When that season started Doughty was a force on the ice, he was controlling the play in both ends of the ice, carrying the puck through traffic, just everywhere he needed to be. Then he got concussed, and I have not seen the same level of dominance that I saw then since.

From watching his play, when he was so highly hyped he was worth every bit of the hype, but now it does seem like he lost that extra step that made him so highly rated.

[baumer]

I concede that the concussion did play a part in his regression, but whatever the reason, he is just not the 59 point D-man he was. I don't think he is worth having right now.

[metaldude26]

Anyone else feeling the complete opposite opinion here? Is Doughty not underrated at this point? Seriously people, these massive swings in your opinion of a player are so irrational. It screams of over-compensation. Everyone harping on Doughty being overrated is an obvious Doughty owner or former Doughty owner who has completely soured after one and an eigth of poor production.

Look, I know that excuses are like ********. But Doughty has some pretty damn good ones. That concussion last year hurt him. Missing camp this year has done the same. He is still only 21 years old. Most people thinking rationally would kill to get his numbers from a 21 year old. But poolies way too often lack that sort of perspective. Burn them once and they jump overboard.

Doughty IS an elite talent. Throw the last year out the window and just recognize his skills and situation. If you deny that Doughty is talented then you are wrong. His talents have translated to production in the past and they will do so again. MT is absolutely correct, Doughty needs to shoot more. He'll never achieve his potential until he starts shooting the puck 200+ times a year. Until then he is over-reliant on his teammates.

Doughty has fantastic puck control skills, patience and vision. His hockey IQ is incredibly strong but there's only so much he can do if he isn't shooting. The Kings, for all their moves still do not have an elite finisher. Doughty can only make up for that if he starts shooting more. He would increase the Kings scoring two-fold. First by actually scoring more goals himself and second by generating scoring opportunities for his teammates off rebounds.

Look, I believe Doughty was once overrated. During that whole 2009-10 season, his stock was getting juiced up like crazy but that's cuz people couldn't believe what they were seeing. Doughty had so much poise and was only 19. That's completely unheard of. His production was too high for what he was doing at the time. He scored an inordinate amount of goals for the number of shots he took. He probably snaked out a bunch of secondary assists he didn't particularly earn. In other words his 59 points were a fluke. But the flip side of that is that last season the luck completely flipped on it's head. He was decidedly unlucky. That's fantasy hockey though. It's never a totally smooth ride. Throughout each individual season their hills and troughs and over the course of many seasons there are similar hills and troughs, especially for defensemen who do rely heavily on their teammates. Buying high on defensemen is a volatile adventure. If you bought Doughty when the hype machine was swirling then you bought high. That's on you, not on the people putting out the hype. So now that Doughty is struggling and everyone is thinking that Doughty is overrated the needle has swung the other way. The hype is undervaluing Doughty. That means it is time to buy.

I really think people take a far too emotional approach to their players and their teams. Start treating players like stocks. Be analytical. If Doughty is scoring nearly 60 points in a season as a sophomore is that really the time to buy? No. You don't want to buy high. When that same player struggles for a year you don't jump to the other bandwagon and call him overrated. You look at the market and say this player is being undervalued and you buy.

If your assessment of Doughty is that he is a talent and that he is in a good situation then try applying something simple like the law of averages. Assuming absolutely no growth for Doughty he is probably a 50 point player. Try not to get too high or low and try not to overreact to early season trends. The NHL is not the NFL. 12-13 games is only a small fraction of the entire season and it not a sprint, it's a marathon.

[baumer]

Metaldude....one 59 point season.

That's all.

[metaldude26]

Metaldude....one 59 point season.

That's all.

How is that even remotely a counter argument to my post?

[fungchen3]

Doughty is among the elite D options to own in Keeper - although E.Karlsson is climbing towards the top right now. But Doughty might still be my number 1 or 2. That said, I can see why his owners would be sour. Between the concussion, the average 2010-11 and the hold out, Doughty has underachieved recently. But like Metal said, the kid is only 21 and I think he morphs into a steady 55-65 point defenseman by the age of 23-24.

[dyzfunctioned]

IMO, Metaldude's arguments in this thread are better than everyone else's combined.

Just sayin'.

[mister_mcgoo]

he's an elite d-man and he's incredibly young still, if you're in a one-year then I see no problem with going with another option but in a keeper this is a guy I want to own. Slumps happen, they actually happen fairly regularly, especially when a player is coming off injury but a guy like Doughty in that offense is going to pay dividends for the lifetime of your keeper league, you can take that to the bank. Is he a 70 pt threat? Probably not, I see him developing into a complete d-man with lots of offensive upside, 50-60 pts is what you should expect from him

[baumer]

How is that even remotely a counter argument to my post?

My coutner argument was posted on the previous page. He's not an elite defenseman right now. He had one good year and one Nik Kronwall type of year. He's off to a terrible start this year. What more do you need as proof that he is over rated?

And for the record, I have never owned Doughty.

[Pengwin7]

IMO, Doughty = 50-55pt defenseman.
I would treat him at that level, and that probably places him in the top 10 in the league at that position (by straight points, fantasy-wise).

[Old_Smokie]

I think that people bought into the hype that he'd hit Yandle or Byfuglin numbers from last year right out of the gate. I for one almost bought into the "Dobber" hype. I didn't take a roll on him due to the salary cap hit and I'm glad I never in that case as his salary per point ratio would have to be monumental for me to keep him around and I already have a lot eaten up at the present in salary anyways. The injury has definitely set him back a bit and like most have mentioned he has great fantasy upside but don't expect 60-65 points every season.

[Veritas0Aequitas]

I think Doughty will turn into a Scott Neidermayer/Ray Bourque type elite d-man. 55-65 points on average. The kid is only 21 years old. Most D take years to develop and don't hit their prime until their mid/late 20's. Give him a break. People are so quick to pull the trigger on whether a guy is a bust.

[Axeman33]

I guess its all in what you expect from him. In fantasy sports, I like my D men to fill all my catagories to some extent. I rely on D men to block shots, hits and take PIMS and get me some points. I dont rely on my D men to score a ton, but offer some scoring. I like my forwards to do my scoring. Does Doughty excel in all fantasy catagories for D men? No. He is a mid level D man for fantasy hockey at best.

Last year, he wasnt in the top 20 D men for blocks, hits, PPA, regular assists, shots, or PIMs. He was the 14th best D man for regular strength goals and the 16th best D man for regular strength goals. He played in 76 games last year.

To me, guys like Mark Giordano, Kris Letang, Brent Burns, Dennis Seidenberg are a better value and normally available mid rounds and are a better fantasy draft choice then Doughty. Let some other sucker buy him high so he can moan and piss about his poor fantasy value half way through a season. God forbid you are in a salary cap league with that kind of overall fantasy production.

[Ballsakic]

Time will show the wiser