1st round dilemma!! HELP!

[bigballer16]

Greetings everyone! 2nd day here; 1st post ever!

I have read many posts already so I will try and include all info before I ask my 2 part question.

12 team ,keeper weekly H2H, points only/plus minus. Keep 5FW, 3D, 2G. Starting weekly roster is 6FW, 4 D, 2 G. Without going into great detail. I am leaning toward picking a young defenseman with my 4th overall pick....win now mode with young core.

FW Kessel, Kessler, JVR, Giroux, Carter
D Edler, Fowler, E Johnson.
G Halak, Steve Mason

Keepers increase next year by 1 FW or D. Can't exceed 2 G
Defenseman available that I am targeting:

Toarmina, MDZ, Blum, Kulikov, R Suter, Hedman, Elliot , Rundblad.
(Wow, I know thats a lot!!)

My shortlist of those is Rundblad, Elliot, Suter: Young breakout players command HUGE value in this league and could bring a boatload later if I choose.

Who would you prefer out of this list?

2nd part of question. Does a pavelski, seguin, grabner or jagr make more sense than my defenseman theory?

FG=2; FA=1: DG=5; DA=3: PPG=1: +- = .25

Thanks and I hope this post was OK

[Pantagruelist]

Bigballer,

Very good post. Clear, concise, and I know exactly what you are asking of me.

I like your shortlist of dmen, however, with Fowler, EJ, and Edler, you already have three strong, young dmen in the fold. Rundblad is very tempting, and looks poised to be the next breakout candidate, but I would move to bolster your forward corps and snatch up Pavelski or Seguin. Pavelski, as you say you are in win now mode, and Seguin if you think you are a year or two away.

Not sure if there are any goalies available, but I can't see a squad with Halak and Mason contending this year. Halak looks to be solid on a hungry St Louis team, but Mason is in jeopardy of losing his starting job to Dekanich if things don't go his way. You may try packaging a couple of players together and upgrading your goaltending. Perhaps combine Mason, EJ, and JVR (whose value is very high for having done very little thus far in his career) for a goalie like a Cam Ward, Bryz, or Fleury. If you can pull off a move like this, then picking up Rundblad, Elliot, Pavelski, or Seguin would replace one of the two skaters you gave up.

[dmvincent]

Greetings everyone! 2nd day here; 1st post ever!

I have read many posts already so I will try and include all info before I ask my 2 part question.

12 team ,keeper weekly H2H, points only/plus minus. Keep 5FW, 3D, 2G. Starting weekly roster is 6FW, 4 D, 2 G. Without going into great detail. I am leaning toward picking a young defenseman with my 4th overall pick....win now mode with young core.

FW Kessel, Kesler, JVR, Giroux, Carter
D Edler, Fowler, E Johnson.
G Halak, Steve Mason

Keepers increase next year by 1 FW or D. Can't exceed 2 G
Defenseman available that I am targeting:

Toarmina, MDZ, Blum, Kulikov, R Suter, Hedman, Elliot , Rundblad.
(Wow, I know thats a lot!!)

My shortlist of those is Rundblad, Elliot, Suter: Young breakout players command HUGE value in this league and could bring a boatload later if I choose.

Who would you prefer out of this list?

2nd part of question. Does a pavelski, seguin, grabner or jagr make more sense than my defenseman theory?

FG=2; FA=1: DG=5; DA=3: PPG=1: +- = .25

Thanks and I hope this post was OK

First of all, welcome! Great first post as well. It looks like you have a pretty strong set of D keepers so I'd be going after Pavelski here, mostly due to the fact that Bergeron and Krejci will limit his point production until he proves he is better than them. A coach that prefers older players won't help either, I'd love to see how many times he sat in the press box last year. Its tough to pass up Rundblad or Elliott, but I think if you want to win now that's what has to be done here. The only other dman I'd be looking at on your list is Kulikov, after him there is a clear break in terms of the quality on that list.

Good luck and I hope this helps.

[Pengwin7]

Welcome to the boards bigballer16!

I read through your entire post... and then saw a name that straight-booted every thought out of my head: Joe Pavelski.

I can not truly express the kind of potential I see in this kid.
He's won major championships at every level and been a star on every team.
Last year, SJ had him playing point on the PP (a very, very highly-regarded spot to place any forward: coach has to have HUGE trust in this forward's passing skills & vision).

Check into Pavelski's 2011 calendar year production - it was awesome.

Now consider the fact that he was playing 3rd line center!
And consider that San Jose has shipped out TWO right wingers, brought back one (Havlat), and added a 3rd line center (Handzus).

To me, all of this says that Pavelski has a 50/50 shot of playing RW with Thornton & Marleau.
Joe Pavelski - all the way, IMO.

(ps. Always hate giving bad forecast, but I'd say your team is a 6th-9th team in a 12-team league. Your goalies are OK, not great.)

[shallowfrozenwater]

i'd be looking to take Pavelski or Seguin before any of the D that you're listing there. if both of those guys are gone then i'd go with Suter next.

[hockeyrulez69]

welcome!

if you want to compete this year, i think you need to acquire another premiere goalie.

as for your draft pick, i would take Pavelski first and then Seguin if the Big Pavelski gets taken. is it an offline draft? because if it is, and those two guys are taken before 4, i think you should try and move it for a goalie

[massengil]

I love Pavelski as well, but I'm surprised at the responses so far considering scoring categories are so heavily weighted to D. To put it into perspective, in your format last year Pavelski and Suter scored as follows:

Pavelski: 20G; 46A = 86 points + 11PPG + 2.5 +/- = 99.5 pts your format
Suter: 4G; 35A = 125 points + 1PPG + 5 +/- = 127 pts in your format

Im guessing by the list of best available D that the other GMs recognize the importance of D scoring in your league. If you're looking to compete, I'd draft another high quality defenseman to round out your D prior to drafting a forward.

Add in that it's 6F:4D ratio and D become even more valuable.

Am I missing something?

[Pengwin7]

Am I missing something?

Sort of.
You can't compare a F vs. D... it's comparing apples to oranges.

Everything is relative.
Compare Forwards to other Forwards.
Compare Defense to other Defense.
A player should be picked based on their rank (/scoring) among players at their position.

Example:
Say you are in a 2 Team pool, 2 rounds left.
(For this example, we'll make D worth more... to mimic this pool)
Each team needs 1F, 1D.
You pick first.

Available D:
Player A - 55pts
Player B - 54pts

Available F:
Player X - 42pts
Player Y - 15pts

It doesn't necessarily make sense to pick Player A... because Player B is not a bad option. What is important is taking Player X... because the drop-off to Player Y is significant.

The value of Relative Difference.

Joe Pavelski was 30th among forwards in scoring last year.
With 6F x 12teams = 72F in play... 30/72 puts JoePav in the upper 42%.

Ryan Suter was 29th among forwards in scoring last year.
With 4D x 12 teams = 48D in play... 29/48 puts R.Suter in upper 60%.


Also consider that Joe Pavelski (as mentioned) could see statistical IMPROVEMENT based on having a chance to play top two lines & possibly with Thornton & Marleau.

For Ryan Suter, this could possibly be his last season alongside Shea Weber.
On the NAS PP, Weber is the #1 shooting option.

[massengil]

[QUOTE=Pengwin7;777089]Sort of.
You can't compare a F vs. D... it's comparing apples to oranges.

Everything is relative.
Compare Forwards to other Forwards.
Compare Defense to other Defense.
A player should be picked based on their rank (/scoring) among players at their position.

Example:
Say you are in a 2 Team pool, 2 rounds left.
(For this example, we'll make D worth more... to mimic this pool)
Each team needs 1F, 1D.
You pick first.

Available D:
Player A - 55pts
Player B - 54pts

Available F:
Player X - 42pts
Player Y - 15pts

It doesn't necessarily make sense to pick Player A... because Player B is not a bad option. What is important is taking Player X... because the drop-off to Player Y is significant.

I agree with the analysis but I think its the opposite. I would argue that D scoring has less depth than F scoring. Looking at the best available list by the OP seems to support it as well as Suter was the only named proven D.

The value of Relative Difference.

Joe Pavelski was 30th among forwards in scoring last year.
With 6F x 12teams = 72F in play... 30/72 puts JoePav in the upper 42%.

Ryan Suter was 29th among forwards in scoring last year.
With 4D x 12 teams = 48D in play... 29/48 puts R.Suter in upper 60%.

The relative difference says otherwise again. Pavelski was tied for 30th in points but because its also a G heavy league he was actually ranked much lower in this league. I'm not going to calculate each F's value (I'll just use their point rankings) I'll ignore +/- and PPG for a quick analysis because I'm short on time and the results wont differ significantly but looking at the numbers:

Pavelski: 20G + 46A = 86 pts in this format
73rd Forward in points was Chris Stewart: 28G + 25A = 81 pts in this format
As OP also posted that Grabner (T77 in pts) was available: 34G = 18A = 86 pts in this format.

What should be obvious is that Pavs is not a significant upgrade from other players that are available (0-5pts).

Suter: 4G + 35A = 125 pts in this format
49th D had 29 pts: Staal: 7G + 22A = 101 pts
Sekera: 3G + 26A = 93 pts

Suter is a significant upgrade (+24 pts) over other players that are or are likely to be available.



Also consider that Joe Pavelski (as mentioned) could see statistical IMPROVEMENT based on having a chance to play top two lines & possibly with Thornton & Marleau.

Agreed but it still likely wouldnt make up the difference:

Pavelski: 30G + 45A = 105 pts which would be about 20 pts better than F73.

I should also point out that Suter's totals could easily increase as well. He was on pace for 46 pts last year (he is usually a lock for 82 games but was injured twice). He also put up the following season in '09 which should be realistic for this year:

7G + 38A = 149 pts which is about 50 pts above what can be expected from D49.



I agree with many of your points Pengwin, but I think in a league that is SO D heavy, you'll need 4 solid D to compete so I would lock those up before selecting my 6th F which wont have a significantly higher value than other Fs available.

[Pengwin7]

Thorough analysis. I'm impressed... and...
I'm tossing you some REP. (which I don't do often)

I think Pavelski does have 30G potential (he shot only 7% last year, but is a 10% shooter typically). You chose to compare him to Grabner, who shot 15% and may not be able to repeat... and to Stewart, who shot around 17%... again, unlikely to repeat.

Defensemen are going to emerge into that 40pt level every year.
If I recommend one, I want one that can pick a corner (like Elliott - who is going to take a while).

Ryan Suter put up 4G, 35A. In a 48-D league, new players are going to hit that mark every year. Andy Greene put up 6G, 31A (123pts) in 09-10... Matt Carle... Pavel Kubina... Kurtis Foster... Kimmo Timonen... these are dime-a-dozen guys.

I mean... Jordan Leopold had 13G, 22A (131pts) last year! Jordan Leopold!

Is D-scoring a solid contributor in this league? Yes.
Will there be new D that put up 120+pts every year? Yes.

I don't think D is as shallow as you are making it seem.
I mean... Jordan Leopold!

[massengil]

Thanks Pengwin....

....and I don't mean to champion Suter...it's not like I think he's going to explode like Yandle or Byfuglien did last year. But, you mentioned Greene two years ago and Leopold last year as guys that emerged into Suter's scoring bracket. The difference to me is consistency...Suter has done it 3 years in a row now and at 26 should be expected to continue to do it for many years to come (definitely this year, and probably regardless if he gets traded or Weber does). We saw Greene's massive drop-off and I expect Leopold will also come back to earth this season, but Suter is as reliable as they come. As a 4th D in this format he is gold. If I felt more comfortable being able to pick this years's Kubina or Foster or Leopold I would wait and take Pavelski...but I'm horrible at predicting guys about to have career years.

Pavs is definitely the sexier pick...I'm just not sure if he's the smart one.

[TheRook]

I am with massengil about going for D. I think they hold more value.

Although with the goalies you have i would go more for a dman like Rundblad as he is the most hyped and up and coming dman right now, and i dont think you have the goalies to win the league. Build for winning next year.

[Shoeless]

By any reasonable assessment, this team isn't a win now team, too young and developing - where are the studs that anchor a winning squad in a 12 team league? If you are close then yeah consider Pavelski, but I don't think you are. Rundblad in this league in a season or two is going to be scorching earth with those scoring weights - tuck him in now!

[fungchen3]

Based on your heavy D-scoring, you need to swing for the fences and go with S.Elliott or Rundblad. Both have the potential to be monsters in your format, but I think S.Elliott will be the better goal scorer of the two - and 5 points a pop for D goals = cha-ching!

[bigballer16]

Wow! Thanks for the responses guys. I am primarily a fantasy baseball player, but I love hockey this is my 3rd year in this league.

This site is invaluable and I love Dobber's guide!

I have to tell you when I opened up my fantasy hockey for the first time a couple weeks ago, assessed things; Pavelski jumped off the page at me. I can't believe the guy dropped him.

After I did about 20 or so hours of research, I decided to go young defense for some reason. When I tell you guys blow their loads for young players in this league, well lets put it this way....there was recently a Malkin for Taylor Hall straight up deal. Dude's not even an Oiler fan! That, and the D heavy weighted point system together made me re-think and flip flop to defense with all those young names available.

After reading your posts I am pretty sure I will go with my gut however and take Pavelski or Seguin.

There's a decent chance elliot or rundblad fall to me I upgraded to pick 13 in the 2nd round. If not them I could get a Mcbain Toarmina Hamonic Gio or Larsson almost certainly.