Dubinsky or Koivu (rep given)

[theIceWookie]

Keeper league draft and I'm trying to decide who to take.

Stats are for Goals (3), Assists (1.5), GWG (1), Hits (0.3), Blocks (0.3), PIM's (0.3), Shot (0.1), Plus/Minus (1), SHP (2), PPP (1).

I realize that Dubinsky isn't really a center anymore but he's still listed as that in my league so it's not an issue yet.

Koivu will very likely have a higher point total, especially playing first line time with Heatley. However Dubinsky will have more hits, PIM's, and more goals. They will likely be equal in shot totals. I'm leaning towards Dubinsky because of it being a goal centric league but am I making a mistake in that regards?

Edit: Sorry to not state which Koivu. I meant Mikko. Figured the playing with Heatley part might be hint enough. Also Plus/minus as 1 point not PIM's twice :P

[keeper17]

I think you go with Dubinsky. He will beat Koivu in all categories except Assists and PPP. He will probably have at least double the PIM of Koivu.

Also, Dubinsky has a good chance to be playing left wing with Richards and Gaborik which will obviously help his value.

Looks like you only keep 8 so Dubinsky is probably not a keeper, but I would still take him over Koivu.

[horrorfan]

I think you go with Dubinsky. He will beat Koivu in all categories except Assists and PPP. He will probably have at least double the PIM of Koivu. Also, not sure how many you will be keeping but Dubinsky might be a bubble keeper while Koivu could retire at any time.

He's referring to Mikko, not Saku.

[loco man]

Mikko for me

[wendelclark17]

Ill have to do some digging but off the top of my head I would think Mikko Koivu is a more attractive option with heatley and setoguchi as his likely wingers. Dubinsky does bring more multi-cat production but ill have to do some math work to see if those make up enough difference. Koivu has avergaged 66 pts per season the last three years which is not too shabby and thats with inferior linemates. Dubinsky hit 54 as a high last year and his role is up in the air right now (or at least as far as im concerned) if he lands on the top line with gabby and Richards he could have a great season.

also the the OP ... in your cats you have PIMs listed twice ... for .3 pts or for 1 pt as that makes a huge difference!!

[keeper17]

He's referring to Mikko, not Saku.

Oops, well that changes things. Hmm... Close with those categories but probably Mikko. Gotta see what he does with Heatley.

[gainerama]

Yeah it's close but I would probably side with Dubinsky as well. Koivu will score about 15 points more but mostly in assists. Dubinsky will score more goals, hits, and PIM so it should even it out and slightly favor him more.

[wendelclark17]

OK so after some number cruching .... (and clearing up the PIMs value would help this as Dubisnky's points will jump more with the PIM = 1 rather than 0.3 as I calculated it)

Koivu fantasy points
09-10 = 241.7
10-11 = 207.2

Dubinsky fantasy points
09-10 = 197.2
10-11 = 239

so they are pretty close in terms of production in this setup but I would rather have Koivu I think he is a better player and he is guaranteed to be the top line centre and get all the even strength and PP time he can handle. While dubinsky is an importnant part of the rangers team he doesnt have that same status.

[horrorfan]

OK so after some number cruching .... (and clearing up the PIMs value would help this as Dubisnky's points will jump more with the PIM = 1 rather than 0.3 as I calculated it)

Koivu fantasy points
09-10 = 241.7
10-11 = 207.2

Dubinsky fantasy points
09-10 = 197.2
10-11 = 239

so they are pretty close in terms of production in this setup but I would rather have Koivu I think he is a better player and he is guaranteed to be the top line centre and get all the even strength and PP time he can handle. While dubinsky is an importnant part of the rangers team he doesnt have that same status.

It's cleared up now, and it's Plus/Minus worth one point, and PIM worth 0.3. So, it's goes more in Koivu's favour based on your calculations. I like Koivu in this case, regardless. The other thing to consider is that it's harder to find higher point producers in the later rounds, unlike PIM/HIT peripherals.

As for Dubinsky scoring more goals, his career high of 24 goals last year is only two higher than Koivu's of the season before. Dubinsky could get more but I believe so could Koivu, based on his shot totals. So, that minor advantage plus in peripherals is not enough to choose him over a guy who could easily outscore him by 20 points in my opinion.

[John_Ahlers]

I like Mikko as well.

[wendelclark17]

It's cleared up now, and it's Plus/Minus worth one point, and PIM worth 0.3. So, it's goes more in Koivu's favour based on your calculations. I like Koivu in this case, regardless. The other thing to consider is that it's harder to find higher point producers in the later rounds, unlike PIM/HIT peripherals.

As for Dubinsky scoring more goals, his career high of 24 goals last year is only two higher than Koivu's of the season before. Dubinsky could get more but I believe so could Koivu, based on his shot totals. So, that minor advantage plus in peripherals is not enough to choose him over a guy who could easily outscore him by 20 points in my opinion.

Thanks for pointing that out ..... and yes in that case I agree that I think Koivu is the guy to go with here.

[theIceWookie]

OK so after some number cruching .... (and clearing up the PIMs value would help this as Dubisnky's points will jump more with the PIM = 1 rather than 0.3 as I calculated it)

Koivu fantasy points
09-10 = 241.7
10-11 = 207.2

Dubinsky fantasy points
09-10 = 197.2
10-11 = 239

so they are pretty close in terms of production in this setup but I would rather have Koivu I think he is a better player and he is guaranteed to be the top line centre and get all the even strength and PP time he can handle. While dubinsky is an importnant part of the rangers team he doesnt have that same status.

It's cleared up now, and it's Plus/Minus worth one point, and PIM worth 0.3. So, it's goes more in Koivu's favour based on your calculations. I like Koivu in this case, regardless. The other thing to consider is that it's harder to find higher point producers in the later rounds, unlike PIM/HIT peripherals.

As for Dubinsky scoring more goals, his career high of 24 goals last year is only two higher than Koivu's of the season before. Dubinsky could get more but I believe so could Koivu, based on his shot totals. So, that minor advantage plus in peripherals is not enough to choose him over a guy who could easily outscore him by 20 points in my opinion.

Thanks guys. I ended up taking him with my next pick. I did like how he was essentially guaranteed top line time. Your thoughts helped a lot.

I gave rep to you guys, I'll hit the other two tomorrow once I can.

[JHM]

Not 100% true, but usually the guy with the bigger contract is the better option in Fantasy. Thus, when things are tremendously close, check the contracts. Koivu has a freaky one. It helps ascertain who has the higher upside window.

Not that I think it will happen, but who has the better chance at an 80 point season?

Mikko is clearly the answer. He was on 70 point pace again last year. Not that it'll make a huge difference, but I do prefer Heatley to Havlat. More upside and superior goal scoring potential.

The only down side, is that Mikko seems to miss a few more games.

[DerekReese]

I like the little guy here too. I think Koivu we be a better fantasy option, plus you know he is going to play 1st line minutes.