Last year's shooting percentages for Green, Ovechkin, Backstrom were all way down.
This is just a bit unlucky.
It took a season with this many bad breaks for Green's numbers to be this far down.
Prediction: 59pts.
(LOW = 52pts, HIGH = 66pts)
I think he has a good season. Last year was one of adjustment. Wideman may cut into his ice time a bit, but Green produced a lot at EV when he was at his best, too. Simply put he's a special, dynamic talent.
Last year's shooting percentages for Green, Ovechkin, Backstrom were all way down.
This is just a bit unlucky.
It took a season with this many bad breaks for Green's numbers to be this far down.
Prediction: 59pts.
(LOW = 52pts, HIGH = 66pts)
I own Green, and would never trade him except for a boatload in return.
I would trade him for Doughty, Thornton and a 5th.
Doughty is as talented as Green, and will hit the 60s consistently and with ease for many years.
Thornton is 32 and far from washed up. 80, even 90 point seasons are in his future. Even if I am wrong on the upside (and I do not think that I am), 70-80 point seasons consistently.
A 5th pick should land you a 65 point fw, 40 pt d or a risk/reward type player like Filatov.
13 team Keeper, top 8F, 4D and 2G count. 1pt G/A, 2pt W/SO.
Protect up to 500 points in a full season
(K) denotes keeper
Keepers:
F: Draisaitl, Thompson, Thomas, Zuccarello, Konecny, Marchessault Ehlers, O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Perron, Coronato, Seguin, Atkinson, Rossi, Michkov
D: Q Fox, Sergachev, Dobson, York, Hutson
G: Vasilevsky, Jarry, Levi
I personally think Green has peaked and that you'll be hard pressed to get 30 goals, 75 seasons out of him. He's also a big injury concern and his massive point totals from a defenseman speak more about the team and system he plays on and less about his actual skill set.
That package is outrageous and (depending on team settings) I don't think you'll find too many people who would trade Thornton for Green straight up, or Doughty for Green straight up, let alone both + a 5th rounder for him.
Of all the top 10 fantasy skaters of the past 3 years, Green has fallen the hardest and lost the most value as a keeper in my opinion.
12 team Yahoo H2H Keeper League (keep 6)
G, A, P, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG
W, L, GAA, SV%, SO
2C - Stamkos
2LW - Benn
2RW - Laine, Marner
4D - Josi
1Util -
2G - Rask
4 keepers, weighted d points, you don't trade the best offensive dman in rhe league unless sid/geno/ovi/stammer coming back, simply put.
F: P. Kane, Oshie, N. Foligno, Thorton, Coyle, Marleau, Pavelski, Dubinsky
Steen
D: seabrooke, Subban,wizniewski,garrison, Carle
G: Niemi, Fleury,
G/A-1 pt PIM- .25pts
Win-2pts Shutouts- 5pts(2+3)
Keep 10. Top 13 count (4 d, 1 g, 6 Frwd and next highest-any position)
Green is only 25 years old. I think a lot of people forget that. He hasn't peaked, unless you think that AO and Backstrom have peaked as well. Right now, Green is a cornerstone of a franchise that believes they can win the Cup over the next few years. Green will be heavily utilised in that time. Carlson will be good, but wont come close to unseating Green for another 2 years minimum, prolly 3-4. I doubt they go with a younger quarterback in that window. Experience means a lot in the playoffs and they are looking to win now.
The offer on the table is definitely a fair one. There is some risk involved with Green, but he is very high reward for that risk.
You aren't going to keep Thornton and will likely have a hard time trading him so he isn't worth talking about. The pick is that 5th overall or a 5th rounder?
Green for Doughty and 5th overall - I would do this.
Green for Doughty and a 5th rounder - I would negotiate this.
(Thornton's value is only what you could get for him in a trade, which I'm guessing isn't much)
20 Team Pool Points Keeper
G =1,A=1,PPG=1,PPA=0.5, SHG=1,GWG=1,PIM=0.1,+/-=0.25
Goalie cats (W=2, SO=3, SV=0.05)
F: Malkin, B.Richards, Franzen, D.Brown, Boedker, Zajac, Atkinson, Scheifele, Read, Boyes
D: Green, Schultz, Faulk, Goligoski
G: Crawford
I think the whole Caps team is going to bounce back this year...they tried the run and gun offense and that worked well all season but they couldn't hang in the playoffs...then they did a 180, still won the conference but did better in the offseason, but couldn't score when they needed to. I think this year they finally get the right balance between the two and make it to the conference finals
I would tend to agree that he has peaked, in terms of production/points. The Caps have demonstrated that they are attempting to strike the right balance between high octane offense and shut-down defense style of play. As McGoo alluded to below, I also believe they will strike a balance in style from 2009-2010 & 2010-2011 seasons. That in and of itself will necessitate Green to tone down the offense some, resulting in tempered production.
Does that mean he equals the 24pts from last year? Hell no.
Does that mean he is the equivalent to fantasy waste? Hell, hell no.
I would suspect Green middles out over the next three years around the 50-55 pt mark. Not 2008-10 beast-like numbers to be sure....but very comfortable, respectable numbers nonetheless.
I would even go further as to say that even if moved to another team, breaking the 70pt barrier again would be very difficult. Not impossible, mind you, just very, very difficult.
He has spoiled us, it would seem.
@SmittysRant
I agree all Capitals will do better this year. That being said, Green won't reach the 70 point totals he hit before. He did so without Carlson around.......ie Carlson is eating up some of that production. It won't be long before Carlson matches up with Green in regards to points 50-55 each eventually pushing Green out via trade. Don't get me wrong, I think Green is great but too many people forget Carlson is awesome! They both shoot the same way so something has to give.
14 team points only league
9 forwards (3 of each position)
4 defense
2 goalies
farm team option
Must submit top 4 pointing players back into draft at end of every season
14 rounds
Can only carry over 12 players each year
Just want to throw out a quick note on Green for all those saying he won't hit 70 again, etc. - Green is the most offensively gifted d-man in the NHL, simply put. So if you think he can only put up 55, that's fine - but then don't go saying other d-men like Karlsson and such are 65+ point d-men.
If Karlsson, Doughty, etc. are 65 point d-man, then Green is a 70+ point d-man. I'm sure many will disagree with me but I find it pretty difficult to believe if someone doesn't agree that Green is the most offensively gifted d-man in the NHL.
dyz, speaking for myself, he is a 70+pt d-man in that he's attained 70+ points (twice, in fact). But that doesn't guarantee him 70+ points year-in-year-out...or ever again for that matter.
In my view, calling Doughty a 65 point d-man means he has the talent to attain 65 points at some point or points in his career. Nor does that preclude anything Green may or may not achieve.
All I'm saying, insofar as Green is concerned, is that he will be hard pressed to again achieve those monster 70+ points he so effortlessly earned in the past. Stars need to align for that shit (ie coaches, system, line mates, injuries etc...).
That's all I'm saying.
@SmittysRant
I was just saying in general, not just directed at you. There's people who will go out and say Green won't clear 60 again, etc. yet in another post will say Karlsson is going to hit 65+ or whatever.
I'm just saying given an equal number of games Green will outpoint any d-man in the NHL, regardless of what team he plays for or who he may be competing for ice time against.
Just my opinion.
he's not going to be a consistent 70+ dman, I can guarantee that...he put up those sick numbers before because he essentially played like a 4th forward all the time, always pinching and joining the rush...it didn't matter that he coughed the puck up sometimes leading to odd-man rushes because the Caps were just flat-out outscoring all their competition all the time. But the Caps have a new system in place now that doesn't allow Green to ignore his defensive responsibilities. He also has a young teammate in Carlson breathing down his neck who provides great puck management and scoring ability but without many of the defensive liabilities, plus he blocks lots of shots! I think Green's number take a bit of a hit simply because of Carlson, the Caps definitely recognize his huge potential to be a rock on their blue line so they're going to give him all the ice time he can handle. If Green can stay healthy he's still gonna score a boatload of points and may very well break 70 again but I see the numbers normalizing a lot more and Carlson and Green sharing the points much more evenly