Point projections for these dmen

[mrmojorisin]

Assuming 82 games for each.

Edler 11-40-51pts: With Ehrhoff gone Edler will assume the role of top PP dman. His career trajectory is a developing Lidstrom. This season is a stride in that direction.

Byfuglien 15-35-50pts: At the half way mark it looked like he was going to lead all dmen by seasons end before cooling down. Since he'll be used in all the same situations a repeat is extremely likely. This is the one player on the list that has the upside to pass this projection by 10.

Goligoski 12-40-52pts: Too much focus being placed on the fact Richards is gone. This team stll has a very capable offense including Ribiero who was a point a game player prior to Brad's arrival in the big D. Dallas will have success on the PP and Goligoski will be a big part if that.

Phaneuf 13-38-51pts: Its funny reading the different opinions on Dion. Simple facts help me with my projection. He was supposed to have this offensive come back season last year, but that freak injury derailed it for him. Even when he returned he wasn't playing at his full potential. As the season wore on he found his groove and finished with 17pts in his last 25 games. That projects to 55pts over a full year and that's roughly where he will be.

Uh, don't mean to be rude but if you think that these point projections are acurate you might want to quit posting advice. There were only 6 defenseman in the ENTIRE league that scored 51 or more points last season so you are basically saying that theyse 4 guys are the elite offensive dmen which isn't the case.

[ross10019]

Uh, don't mean to be rude but if you think that these point projections are acurate you might want to quit posting advice. There were only 6 defenseman in the ENTIRE league that scored 51 or more points last season so you are basically saying that theyse 4 guys are the elite offensive dmen which isn't the case.

Mojo buddy, you can disagree with Emidio's advice (as I do) without suggesting that he stop posting. While his projections are high in my view, at least he supported them with detailed thoughts so that one can decide whether his projections are merited, so far from the kind of "bad advice" posting that should get anyone up in arms. A member who posts this kind of detail is very welcome in my mind.

I find that most pre-season projections from the Dobber community (even from the Dobber guide itself) tend towards being overly optimistic, I think it's just our nature to want to see guys come through and better their numbers, even though we all know that often the opposite happens. All the more the case when you are projecting for players that you own!

[SeaDawg]

Uh, don't mean to be rude but if you think that these point projections are acurate you might want to quit posting advice. There were only 6 defenseman in the ENTIRE league that scored 51 or more points last season so you are basically saying that theyse 4 guys are the elite offensive dmen which isn't the case.

how can you not mean to be rude with a statement like that? Give the guy a break. He's only made 46 posts.

I'm not saying that I think all 4 of those guys will crack 50, but he is pretty much inline with what everyone else is saying, give or take a bit.

I for one appreciate his advice and wouldn't want him to stop posting.

Thanks emidio69.

[bondon]

I'll take someone who is posting "against the grain"-type opinions and backs it up with reasoning than someone who joins in a conversation just to poke at others opinions anyday. That's all I'm gonna say about that.

As for his projections, yeah they're high but they're not out of the realm of possibility except for Phaneuf in my eyes. I think he's spot on with Byfuglien. Could I see Edler and Goligoski hit 50? If the cards all fall into place I don't see why not. Goligoski scored at an over 50 point pace when he got traded to Dallas, Edler was scoring at a 53 point pace before he got hurt. Maybe you think that was their upside, maybe you don't.

Like I said with mine I was a bit conservative, but I don't see Edler/Goligoski cracking 50 completely out of the question. Unlikely? Maybe.

Phaneuf on the other hand though, I'm surprised by all the love for him. He's far removed from his 60 point season and I'm not buying it, but I can respect others opinions on it. (Still think projecting that Phaneuf will outpoint Edler by 10 or more is cracked out but that's just me lol).

[ross10019]

Phaneuf on the other hand though, I'm surprised by all the love for him. He's far removed from his 60 point season and I'm not buying it, but I can respect others opinions on it. (Still think projecting that Phaneuf will outpoint Edler by 10 or more is cracked out but that's just me lol).

I think Phaneuf could have a bounceback and start performing closer to the level of his Calgary days, in particular given the addition of Liles and Connolly and what should be a better PP as a result. I think a key is what Horrorfan mentioned, his shooting accuracy, so much depends on how much time he is spending in the off-season on his shooting - if he can improve significantly in hitting the net, particularly with one timers, you'll see a dramatic spike in goalscoring and PPPs, being fed by Liles and Connolly on the PP and feeding Kessel for one timers.

It is very similar to the Letang situation in the offseason before last year, the obvious flaw in his game was his shooting accuracy, and he worked on it very hard during that summer, and the result was what we saw last year (a 50 point season with an average of 3SOG per game, which were it not for the Crosby and Malkin injuries could easily have been a 65+ point performance).

Look at these numbers:

Kris Letang
2009/2010 - 174SOG, 96MissedShots, so 1.81SOG per MS - 3 goals / 27 pts
2010/2011 - 236SOG, 101 MS, so 2.34SOG per MS - 8 goals / 50 pts

Dion Phaneuf
2009/2010 - 225SOG, 123MS, so 1.83SOG per MS - 12 goals / 32 pts
2010/2011 - 190SOG, 94 MS, so 2.02SOG per MS - 8 goals / 30 pts

Now obviously there are other factors that contributed to Letang's emergence last year (Gonchar departure and later Goligoski departure), but it's pretty common knowledge that a key success factor was his significantly improved shot accuracy, as reflected in the SOG v MS ratio. So I think if Phaneuf improves his accuracy in similar fashion as Letang did, then that plus the better offensive players the Leafs obtained in the off-season should contribute to a hefty increase in goals scored and point totals this coming year, in my opinion.

Meanwhile, among the top scoring / big shooting Dmen last year, here are their SOG versus MS ratios:

- Visnovsky: 1.92
- Byfuglien: 2.41
- Chara: 2.67
- Weber: 2.12
- Ehrhoff: 2.13
- Yandle: 1.91
- Boyle: 2.21
- Karlsson: 2.76
- Lidstrom: 1.97

Interesting that the top 3 point-getters, Visnovsky, Lidstrom and Yandle, all had ratios under 2 and yet Visnovsky and Lidstrom were 2nd and 4th in goalscoring among Dmen. That suggests to me that, while these two players aren't the most accurate shooters, when they get it on net they are usually quality shots with a better chance of success than most Dmen (and that's borne out, Lidstrom and Visnovsky are two of the best Dmen shooting PP QBs in the league) - it also suggests that, in Lidstrom's case for sure, you see alot of intentional missed nets to create scoring chances off the kick plate, kind of like that Max Lapierre goal in Game 6 of the Finals when Bieksa intentionally shot wide.

But it also suggests that the best is yet to come for guys like Yandle, and that Erik Karlsson is already a very accurate shooter for his age, which bodes well for his point totals going forward (especially PPPs). Karlsson is obviously known for his skill, but I think many don't realize that he has one of the hardest and most accurate slapshots in the league, especially for his size.

Anyway, enough with the digressions, and apologies for the very long post to try to explain why I think Phaneuf should improve his point totals next year.

[horrorfan]

Ross, that's a well thought out and informative post. Thanks!

[mrmojorisin]

Mojo buddy, you can disagree with Emidio's advice (as I do) without suggesting that he stop posting. While his projections are high in my view, at least he supported them with detailed thoughts so that one can decide whether his projections are merited, so far from the kind of "bad advice" posting that should get anyone up in arms. A member who posts this kind of detail is very welcome in my mind.

I find that most pre-season projections from the Dobber community (even from the Dobber guide itself) tend towards being overly optimistic, I think it's just our nature to want to see guys come through and better their numbers, even though we all know that often the opposite happens. All the more the case when you are projecting for players that you own!

Ha Ha, I guess the "tongue in cheek" didn't come through in that post. I would obviously never tell anyone to avoid posting in the forums, I just meant to say that when you are handing out advise you should do a little bit of research before doing so. The beauty of these forums is that most of the guys here offer sound advice and are close with their comments.

For guys that are newer I suggest looking at the yearly stats on NHL.com and noting how few players reach the 65 point mark as forwards and how few hit 45 as Dmen - it will really put point projections into perspective and allow you to offer sounder advice.... Not to be rude

[ross10019]

Ha Ha, I guess the "tongue in cheek" didn't come through in that post. I would obviously never tell anyone to avoid posting in the forums, I just meant to say that when you are handing out advise you should do a little bit of research before doing so. The beauty of these forums is that most of the guys here offer sound advice and are close with their comments.

For guys that are newer I suggest looking at the yearly stats on NHL.com and noting how few players reach the 65 point mark as forwards and how few hit 45 as Dmen - it will really put point projections into perspective and allow you to offer sounder advice.... Not to be rude

No worries Mojo. I do agree with your advice though, most people (myself included) don't realize that a 65-pt forward and 40-pt Dman is a rare commodity in the league. Last year, only 34 forwards league-wide had 65 points, and only 28 Dmen hit the 40-point mark. So in a 14-team league like mine, you have less than 2.5 forwards per team who are 65-point players and just about 2 Dmen per team that ar 40-pointers. Good thing to keep in mind when making predictions, but also when evaluating your team - if you have, in a 14-team keeper, say 5 guys at 65 points or more and 4 Dmen at 40 points or more, you are in good position and may be able to make moves, like for example packaging a few of those guys to get one of the very rare 90+ point forwards (only 5 last year) or 50+ point Dmen (only 9 last year).

[SeaDawg]

No worries Mojo. I do agree with your advice though, most people (myself included) don't realize that a 65-pt forward and 40-pt Dman is a rare commodity in the league. Last year, only 34 forwards league-wide had 65 points, and only 28 Dmen hit the 40-point mark. So in a 14-team league like mine, you have less than 2.5 forwards per team who are 65-point players and just about 2 Dmen per team that ar 40-pointers. Good thing to keep in mind when making predictions, but also when evaluating your team - if you have, in a 14-team keeper, say 5 guys at 65 points or more and 4 Dmen at 40 points or more, you are in good position and may be able to make moves, like for example packaging a few of those guys to get one of the very rare 90+ point forwards (only 5 last year) or 50+ point Dmen (only 9 last year).

This is a bit OT (but I started the thread so I can do wtf I want with it), but I completely agree with this.

In this particular league, we require 4 starting dmen. It is a 12-team league, so that means 48 starting dmen. If you look at the top 48 dmen in the league, the 48th guy only scored 29 pts!

Similarly, we start 6 forwards each, so 72 total. If we look at the 72nd highest scoring forward, he only had 54 pts!

Looking at those numbers, a 65 pt forward and a 40 pt dman should have huge value. In my league, if you have six 65 pt forwards and four 40 pt dman, you are going to win a lot of H2H weeks. That said, I have a 65 pt forward in Dany Heatley that I am trying to trade, and I can't get ANYTHING for him. I really mean I can't get anything. I would trade him for a pick...I don't even want a player in return, but people won't even give me that. In fantasy hockey, people have the mistaken impression that a 65 pt player is worthless. They only want the players who can score 80+ pts. Sure, that would be nice to have, but there are so few of those in the league today.

Anyway, that was a bit of a rant, and certainly off-topic, but it is a pet peeve of mine that most fantasy people (at least in my league) can't properly evaluate player values because they don't see the merit in a 65 pt forward or a 40 pt dman. They'd rather take someone like Voracek (who only put up 46 pts) instead of Heatley (who even in a bad season put up 64 pts) because of the mistaken impression that because Heatley can't put up 90 pts anymore, he is worthless. I say screw'em. I'm going to keep Heatley and watch him put up another 65 pt season (at least). With a roster including Spezza, Heatley, Benn, Berglund, Ennis, and Pavelski, I should at least have 3 players over 65 pts, and hopefully 4 or 5. Cross my fingers.

[Pengwin7]

edler-50pts
byfuglien-50pts
goligoski-45pts
phaneuf-35pts

..........

[samk11169]

Elder- 50pts
Byfuglien- 45pts
Goligoski-48pts
Phaneauf- 42 pts

[sergioel]

Uh, don't mean to be rude but if you think that these point projections are acurate you might want to quit posting advice. There were only 6 defenseman in the ENTIRE league that scored 51 or more points last season so you are basically saying that theyse 4 guys are the elite offensive dmen which isn't the case.

Firstly I will not stop posting. Secondly your point of last season is quite interesting. Especially considering that last year was a low scoring year for point totals, and this was widely discussed in most fantasy circles. Making points like only 6 defenseman eclipsed 51pts is quite funny. We'll just forget the 3 that netted 50 dead on, or the additional 9 that scored between 45-50 pts. 45pts for any of these guys would be pretty close to my projections. Did you know that Keith, Green and Doughty didn't clip more than 45pts last year. Because of that do you only pencil them in for 40 this year?
50 is a magical number as a defenseman, and granted only a handful actually pass that mark annually. Having said that all 4 of these players are in a position to eclipse that number or come within a few points of those totals. They are all key players and contributors to their respective team's PP. I firmly believe we will see a scoring increase this year and we will have quite a few more 50+ point defenseman this year. Outside of these four players there are quite a few players that can score 50+ given health or because they are in the right situations. I already mention Green, Doughty and Keith. What about Markov and Streit. They are both key pieces to their teams PP, and if they can play a full season they too can eclipse 50. How about Kronwall in DET. With Rafakski gone he will probably eat those minutes, and he too has had 50+ before. How about Chara who had back to back 50+ before only getting 44pts last season. The opportunity is there. And like I said I expect a gluttony of defenseman to break that mark or come extremely close. If you want to disagree feel free. If it's too mind numbing perhaps you should stop reading!

[mrmojorisin]

As I pointed out in my first post (all be it somewhat sarcastically) I don't consider any of these Dmen to be elite and one of them will likely be playing the wing this season. If you are going to be a regular poster on this site then expect to get some critisism when you post numbers - it goes with the territory. The beauty of fantasy hockey is that everyone has a different opinion.

As far as the second part, they day you post something "mind numbing" is the day I quit fantasy hockey...

[SeaDawg]

I really don't think Byfuglien will be playing Forward anymore. I believe he is going to stay a defensemen from now on. That is his personal preference, and the team sure can't complain too much when he puts up nearly 400 SOG and scores 50+ pts.

[Stencil]

Here are my projections:

Edler 47 pts
Byfuglien 44 pts
Goligoski 49 pts
Phaneuf 38 pts