Berglund 3-year outlook

[blaclark]

http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...extension.html

Was the end of the 2010-2011 season and the WC a sign of things to come from Berglund? Is St Louis going to be a team with a few 80 pt players in 2 or 3 years?

I've got this guy in my keeper league and it looks like he has all the tools to become a #1 centre. Time to sell high or worth the wait?, even if it takes a few more years?

[gerbernomics]

i think 60 is in the horizon for 2011-2012, with 70+ and highs in the 80s in a few years

[loco man]

i think 60 is in the horizon for 2011-2012, with 70+ and highs in the 80s in a few years

Bang on.

As far as selling high vs. holding on, it all depends on where you are at and what you are being offered. Of course, EVERYONE is tradable for the right price and Bergy is generating a lot of buzz, but I would be temped to stand pat and reap the rewards.

Posting your league stats, your team and what is being offered would help if you want some specific advice about a possible sell high scenario.

Btw, don't let the 150 views with only two responses get you down, kinda the way it goes round here.

GL

[ovi42]

I agree with those projections as well. St louis could look similar to philly i think.

[Reuben]

i think 60 is in the horizon for 2011-2012, with 70+ and highs in the 80s in a few years

Yeah, I like this as well...but would put 80's as his absolute top numbers.

St Louis is fairly deep up-front so that will affect top-end production. But he's a legit talent who will see top minutes on the PP and even strength.

Very interested to see how it all shakes down in St Louis this year and down the road. Lots of young talent, but they've struggled to put it all together the past couple years after that great second-half run two years ago.

[leaftodd]

I see 60's (mid) this year from Berglund. Moving up to Mid 70's next year. Where i differ is i see low 90's as his third of three year totals. I think after his second year StL will give him the enhanced ice time to show his 90 point top end.

[blaclark]

Thanks for the feedback. +/- can be the difference whether a 70 pt player is worth owning in my league so I'm hoping that the Avs they picked up at the deadline and being familiar with Halak will take St Louis to the next level.

[joos]

Looking @ your stats... yes +/- is definitely worth a lot... basically +2 rating is a point. So a 60 pt player with a +20 is really a 70 pt player.

I would like to think most of the blues +/- will improve. They do have Halak which kinda now has hopefully settled into this new surrounds/workload.

But I would definitely be focused on those good + rating guys lol.

[dyzfunctioned]

I'd be a little more conservative with my projections... for starters I'd be willing to bet my house (if I owned it :P) that Berglund will never hit 90 points.

I think low-mid 60's is a good target for this year like others have said. However, I'd cap him at 75-80 points in his prime, especially given the depth on STL.

[MT319]

Berglund will be reaelistically about high 20's to 30G and 60-65 points. Prime he will be 30-75 player and his upside is point-per-game based on skill-set, but would need Stewart to go 40-40 to get to 90...I think 85 is where I'd cap him as far as upside goes. He has tarasenko there as well so him Stewart Tarasenko if thye all play to their ceilings in STL could be pretty high-end though...but yea Prime Berglund is 30-75 with 85 upside to me. He should be modestly more assist heavy to where I cpnsider him more of a playmaker than goal-scorer, but he has 30G potential no question on any given season. I just expect his number to trend towards more assist-heavy playing with Stewart (and possibly Tarasenko) in STL

[joos]

I think an upside of PPG is nothing to be "down" on or anything.

I think 72-75 pts is very reasonable to expect in a few years. I agree hes definitely more of an assist guy.

I like to keep my projections conservative so I think around 25-30-55 would be safe to predict with like a 15-20% sleeper prediction to get 60.

Like all young players, hes gonna need a season or 2 to work out more of his consistent issues... and STL as a whole must learn that as well since they are all pretty young. If he can put up another season of around 55-60 pts, I would definitely like that... then slowly move up to 70 in another 2 season.

Mark my words tho, he will hit 80+ on multiple occasions!

[MT319]

I think with Stewart in the mix who I expect to hit 35G and at least low 70's to modestly above playing with Berglund regularly EV and PP it'll much more realistic to see him at 60+ as opposed to below 60 for next season. It's kinda like Stamkos as just like December two seasons back and late-Dec to mid Jan and late season stretchs they just get burnt and disappear for a short stretch here and there where as Parise etc... out grows that and goes from 60's to 90's in one season. Parise was a little older at the time when he did that than Berglund so I think it's more likely Berglund will hit a brief skid or two like everyone does until he matures himself mentally a bit more through learning to deal with these inevitable times when stuff doesn't come as easy for them which is why he'll only get in the 60-65 range. He won't go below this playing with Stewart though.

He can realistically hit his prime level of 30G-75 as early as next year as Jan through Apr and WC he has been consistently solid aross the board and Stewart will be regard less of Berglund also consistently solid next season as well so if he hit that 70+ range next season I would not even be remotely surprised either. He won't be below 60 though even with a conservative estimate when playing with Stewart EV and PP regularly though based on where Stewart should likely produce (35G-low 70's) which makes Berglund a lock for 60 to me if they line up together regularly as I expect will again be the case.