Pengwin7's 2010-2011 Goalie Rankings (Draft Version)

[Pengwin7]

Mathematical Model based on H2H league with 4 categories: W, SO, GAA, SV%

Goalies are given a score (10/10 = maximum) in each category.
Scoring:
*Wins. 40W = 10pts. 0W = 0pts.
*SO s. 10SO = 10pts. 0SO = 0pts.
*GAA. 133GA = 10pts. 266GA = 0pts. (See Note 1.)
*SV%. .940SV% = 10pts. .900SV% = 0pts. (See Note 2.)

Note 1. Goalies GA are based on a benchmark of 4000min (~67 games).
Examples:
A 2.00GA goalie playing 4000min will get a score of 10.0
A 2.00GA goalie playing 2000min is ratioed down to 5.0 (half, due to mintues)
A 3.00GA goalie playing 4000min will get a score of 5.0
A 3.00GA goalie playing 2000min will get a score of 2.5 (half, due to minutes)

Note 2. Goalies SV% are based on a benchmark of 4000min (~67 games).
Examples:
A .940 goalie playing 4000min will get a score of 10.0
A .940 goalie playing 2000min is ratioed down to 5.0 (half, due to minutes)
A .920 goalie playing 4000min will get a score of 5.0
A .920 goalie playing 2000min will get a score of 2.5 (half, due to minutes)

Discussion:
*This is a work in progress - open to discussion.
*It is a little slow at work these days.


Hope you enjoy.
Comments welcome!

[lobo1969]

Sweet!

And Thanks!

[tgraveline]

This is awesome. I like it. Are you going to update this in the future if any guys are traded or signed elsewhere?

[Hey Robbie]

Great idea!

For H2H, should GAA and SV% really be penalized so heavily for fewer minutes? If have a back-up or 1B guy who has great peripherals (eg Rask in 2009-2010), he can still win me those categories regularly. The trouble with those guys comes mostly in the Wins and SO cats.

Just curious - do you think you'll use a linear scale for the points you assign? Or something more like a z score? I wonder if the difference in value between a G with 15 wins and one with 20 wins is the same as the difference between one with 35 wins and one with 40 wins.

[Hey Robbie]

Oops - didn't even see the attached file at first!

[jkspartan05]

Well done P7. Is this your first edition or have you done this in years past?

It would be interesting data to see how the goalies are trending over the past 3-4 seasons.

Great job.

[thatbirdguy]

This is awesome. I like it. Are you going to update this in the future if any guys are traded or signed elsewhere?

If I'm reading it right, its based purely on this past season's stats, not a prognostication, so future trades/signings are irrelevant.

[Pengwin7]

Numbers are based from 2010-2011 NHL season statistics.

I'm hoping to get some feedback on whether these rankings appear to be good... based on what we all know from this season's statistics.

If these rankings seem OK, then we could come up with some prediction statistics together and see how a new PREDICTION ranking would look!!!

[Jouko-Pouko]

SOs should be less valuable. That would put Thomas on top where he belongs right now.

[Dean Youngblood]

Really well done Pengwin7!

The rankings are right online with how they should be after last season

[ridinryan44]

Wow... that's a lot of work Pengwin.. thanks for it! I tried doing something similar with players for my roto league, but got bored and gave up. I think I have it sitting around on one of computers somewhere. Would probably pay off to finish it. Interesting to see how they rank out. I like seeing Kari Lehtonen in the top 15...

[Shoeless]

Well I suck at statistical analysis, but I wonder about the value of Shutouts in your ranking system for a H2H league. The frequency of W, GAA and SV% playing a factor in a H2H match is on the surface about 2 times and change more than shutouts. 23 week schedule. Also Lundie and Price had 2 shutouts in one Monday to Sunday week while Thomas didn't (didn't dig any further than this) and that is probably one more than you need to win the category for the week in most cases.

Just for kicks, what happens if you downgrade shutouts to being worth 50% of each of the other 3 cats?

[Pengwin7]

re: Shutouts.

Great comments. If I was using the numbers to select a player, I'd agree that maybe the shutouts be scaled down to 50% of their value (i.e. worth a max of 5pts).

A couple reasons:
i) Shutouts are volatile. One year a guy could have 8 shutouts, another year he might have 4 shutouts. Is he really twice as good a goaltender in one season by this single category? No, obviously not.
ii) It is a low quantity statistic. Lundqvist had 11 shutouts, full points. (Actually I allowed him 11). But he can't get those points EVERY week because there are well more weeks than shutouts.

[jkspartan05]

I think you have provided shutouts with an appropriate weight. A shutout can win you a week in H2H. Given that its a crap shoot, I agree its tough to predict but there are a few goalies who consistently get more SHO than most (lundqvist, rinne or any barry tortz coached goalie for that matter, brodeur back in the day).

Its a critical stat and those goalies who show they can produce in that category should be ranked higher.

[mapletreemarty]

I don't think that save percentage should be penalized if the goalie plays fewer minutes. In a H2H league a .920 save percentage is just that regardless of how many minutes you play.