2009 THN Draft Preview -Where Prospects were "Actually" Selected

[Dean Youngblood]

After posting the 2011 Top 100 NHL Draft Eligible Players released by THN, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at how well the magazine has done ranking previous prospects

The Hockey News releases it's Draft Preview Special Edition every spring featuring the Top 100 players and also takes a quick look at players in upcoming drafts.

The following analysis is not intended to criticize the rankings but rather show how difficult the scouting process is. Let's take a look at the past 2009 Draft Preview release and see how the Top 100 and "Sneak Peak" features turned out

2009 THN Draft Preview

"HOT 100" of 2009

1. John Tavares (NYI – 1st)
2. Victor Hedman (TBL – 2nd)
3. Matt Duchene (COL – 3rd)
4. Jared Cowen (OTT – 9th)
5. Evander Kane (ATL – 4th)
6. Brayden Schenn (LAK – 5th)
7. Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson (EDM – 10th)
8. Nazem Kadri (TOR – 7th)
9. Jordan Schroeder (VAN – 22nd)
10. David Runblad (STL – 17th)
11. Dmitri Kulikov (FLA – 14th)
12. Simon Depres (PIT – 30th)
13. Olivier Ekman-Larsson (PHX – 6th)
14. Scott Glennie (DAL – 8th)
15. Jacob Josefson (NJD – 20th)
16. Zack Kassian (BUF – 13th)
17. Ryan Ellis (NSH – 11th)
18. John Moore (CLB – 21st)
19. Peter Holland (ANA - 15th)
20. Carter Ashton (TBL – 29th)
21. Jeremy Morin (ATL – 45th)
22. Calvin de Haan (NYI – 12th)
23. Drew Shore (FLA – 44th)
24. Chris Kreider (NYR – 19th)
25. Nick Leddy (MIN – 16th)
26. Kyle Palmieri (ANA – 26th)
27. Stefan Elliott (COL – 49th)
28. Landon Ferraro (DET – 32nd)
29. Louis Leblanc (MTL – 18th)
30. Marcus Johansson (WSH – 24th)

1st Round Recap:
- Spot On: THN predicted four picks absolutely correct (Tavares, Hedman, Duchene and Palmieri)
- Correct: THN had 26 of their 30 first round players correct (87% accuracy)
- Risers: Won't be mentioning the risers in the 1st round as there are no significant changes
- Fallers: Morin, Shore, Elliott and Ferraro were projected as first round selections but fell outside of the top 30.


31. Richard Panik (TBL – 52nd)
32. Tim Erixon (CGY – 23rd)
33. Jordan Caron (BOS – 25th)
34. Ethan Werek (NYR – 47th)
35. Charles-Olivier Roussel (NSH – 42nd)
36. Joonas Nattinen (MTL – 65th)
37. Carl Klingberg (ATL – 34th)
38. Olivier Roy (EDM – 133rd)
39. Ryan O'Reilly (COL – 33rd)
40. Edward Pasquale (ATL – 177th)
41. Dylan Olsen (CHI – 28th)
42. Erik Haula (MIN – 187th)
43. J-F Berube (LAK – 95th)
44. Zach Budish (NSH – 41st)
45. Mikko Koskinen (NYI – 31st)
46. Eric Gelinas (NJD – 51st)
47. David Gilbert (CHI – 209th)
48. Alex Hutchings (TBL – 93rd)
49. Toni Rajala (EDM – 101st)
50. Anton Lander (EDM – 40th)
51. Tomas Tatar (DET – 60th)
52. Robin Lehner (OTT – 46th)
53. Benjamin Conz (undrafted)
54. Brayden McNabb (BUF – 66th)
55. Dmitri Orlov (WSH – 55th)
56. Anton Burdasov (undrafted)
57. Josh Birkholz (FLA – 67th)
58. Seth Helgeson (NJD – 114th)
59. Sergei Chvanov (undrafted)
60. Phillip Paradis (CAR – 27th)

2nd Round Recap:
- Spot On: THN had one player absolutely correct (Orlov at 55th)
- Correct: THN had 12 of 30 second round picks actually fall somewhere within the second round
- Blanked: THN had three players projected in the 2nd round that actually went undrafted in 2009 (Conz, Burdasov and Chvanov)
- Risers: THN had 4 projected second round players turn actually selected in the first round (Erixon, Caron, Paradis and Olsen)
- Fallers: THN had 3 projected second round players fall into the 3rd round, 5 fall into the 4th round, 1 player fall into the 5th round and 2 players fall into the 7th round

[Dean Youngblood]

61. Chris Brown (PHX – 36th)
62. Tommi Kivisto (CAR – 208th)
63. Tomas Vincour (DAL – 129th)
64. Cody Eakin (WSH – 85th)
65. Michal Hlinka (undrafted)
66. Kenny Ryan (TOR – 50th)
67. Taylor Beck (NSH – 70th)
68. Jimmy Bubnick (ATL – 155th)
69. Andrej Nestrasil (DET – 75th)
70. Jakob Silfverberg (OTT – 59th)
71. Ryan Bourque (NYR – 80th)
72. Nico Manelius (undrafted)
73. Marcus Foligno (BUF – 104th)
74. David Savard (CLB – 94th)
75. Ryan Howse (CGY – 74th)
76. Alex Chiasson (DAL – 38th)
77. Tyson Barrie (COL – 64th)
78. Michael Latta (NSH – 72nd)
79. Brandon Maxwell (COL – 154th)
80. Simon Bertilsson (PHI – 87th)
81. Brian Dumoulin (CAR – 51st)
82. Jere Sallinen (MIN – 163rd)
83. Roman Horak (NYR – 127th)
84. Ben Hanowski (PIT – 63rd)
85. Tyler Randell (BOS – 176th)
86. Rasmus Rissanen (CAR – 178th)
87. Ryan Button (BOS – 86th)
88. Ryan Daugherty (undrafted)
89. Marek Hrivik (undrafted)
90. Nick Oliver (NSH – 110th)

3rd Round Recap:
- Correct: THN had 10 of 30 players projected in the 3rd round actually fall somewhere within that round.
- Blanked: THN had 4 players projected in the 3rd that went undrafted in 2009 (Daugherty, Hrivik, Hlinka, Manelius)
- Risers: THN had 5 players projected in the 3rd round actually move up in the draft into the 2nd round (Brown, Ryan, Chiasson, Silfverberg, Dumoulin)
- Fallers: THN had 3 players projected in the 3rd round slide into the 4th, 2 players slid to the 5th, 5 players slid to the 6th and 1 player slid all the way to the 7th round.

91. Anton Myllari (undrafted)
92. Garrett Mitchell (WSH – 175th)
93. Collin Bowman (undrafted)
94. Taylor Doherty (SJS – 57th)
95. Brodie Melnychuk (undrafted)
96. Tyler Amburgey (undrafted)
97. Kevin Lynch (CLB – 56th)
98. Carl Ackered (undrafted)
99. Henrik Bjorklund (CGY – 111th)
100. Levko Koper (ATL – 185th)

Recap of the Remaining Top 100 Ranked Players (start of 4th Rd):
- Correct: THN had one player projected for the 4th round and taken in the 4th round
- Blanked: Unfortunately, 5 of a possible 10 picks actually went undrafted
- Risers: Doherty and Lynch both were taken two rounds earlier than THN had projected
- Fallers: Mitchell went two rounds later in the 6th and Koper was a 7th round selection

Click to see the full 2009 NHL Entry Draft Results

[Dean Youngblood]

2010 Sneak Peak

THN takes a quick look at the draft favourites two ways away in their “Sneak Peak� feature.

In 2009, THN had the following players atop their draft lists for the 2010 Draft. With the 2010 NHL Entry Draft well passed us, we can now check to see how the dominos actually fell.


1. Taylor Hall (EDM – 1st)
2. Kirill Kabanov (NYI – 65th; 3rd Rd)
3. Brandon Gormley (PHX – 13th)
4. Vladimir Tarasenko (STL – 16th)
5. *call it a misprint, but THN actually skipped the 5th overall in my magazine (LOL)
6. Erik Gudbranson (FLA – 3rd)
7. Mikael Granlund (MIN – 9th)
8. John McFarland (FLA – 33rd; 2nd Rd)
9. Teemu Pulkkinen (DET – 111th; 4th Rd)
10. Tyler Toffoli – (LAK – 47th; 2nd Rd)

Click to see the full 2010 NHL Entry Draft http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2010e.html

2011 Draft Preview
(via 2009 Draft Preview Magazine)

Two years ago, THN mentioned the following names as the “Top Prospects� for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (NHL CSS currently ranked #1 among North American skaters)
2. Daniel Catenacci (CSS currently ranked #37 among North American skaters)
3. Adam Larsson (CSS currently ranked #1 among European skaters)
4. Justin Sefton (CSS currently ranked #89 among North American skaters)
5. Ty Rattie (CSS currently ranked #17 among North American skaters)

The scouting process is an interesting process and there are many variables influencing the rankings of top prospects. Taking the opportunity to return to past draft rankings and draft results allows us to so how easily a prospects value can change.

The 2011 NHL Entry Draft is scheduled for June 24-25 in St. Paul, MN and prospects across the world will be examined thoroughly as the draft nears. Check back soon to see the next edition of “Where Prospects were Actually Selected� featuring the 2010 Draft.

[Pokerface]

Great post- It's always interesting looking back at rankings and predictions. One thing about the risers/fallers is that calling someone that simply becasue of the round they went in is less accurate than using the difference in draft postition. Landon Ferraro only fell 4 spots but is a "faller" cause it was at the tail end of 1st rd, where as Depres isn't a "faller" but went 18 spots lower than THN had him going.

[Dean Youngblood]

Great post- It's always interesting looking back at rankings and predictions. One thing about the risers/fallers is that calling someone that simply becasue of the round they went in is less accurate than using the difference in draft postition. Landon Ferraro only fell 4 spots but is a "faller" cause it was at the tail end of 1st rd, where as Depres isn't a "faller" but went 18 spots lower than THN had him going.

I thought about the term "riser" after I posted and I agree with you. For the sake of this post, consider the term Riser and Faller as moving up or down a round at where they were projected to go.

I was going to leave the "riser" and "faller" colour codes right out of it but I thought it might be a good visual

[Hollywood]

What a work! Man, that's a lot of stuff in there! It makes me feel better to remember that scouting isn't an exact science (I can forget about mistakes made in previous drafts)...

By the way, in the draft preview 09, the #5 prospect was Fowler. They made an article on him, so they haven't put him officially at #5 on the list but look just over Taylor Hall's name and you'll see that they ranked him.