Reply With Quotei have him getting around 65 points
How many points is Claude Giroux going to get
He is ranked far back on espn and I want to get him. How many points do you think he will put up. most people think he will get around 60
i have him getting around 65 points
I'm thinking 50... just too much depth in Philly. If Richards picked up just 62 while averaging 20:24 and 3:16 on the PP. And Carter picked up 61 while averaging 19:18 and 3:05 on the PP, I don't think Giroux would get much more than that if he averages just 15-16 mins a game...
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
He has the most potential to 'blow up' on that team but its so deep that i think 50-60 is a more reasonable bet
24 goals 39 assists this year. Next year 75+, and he will never look back.
Also just digging a little deeper into the stats, there just isn't that much more room to improve...
Last year their team put up 2.83 goals per game, which was ranked 8th in the league in that department.
Let's say if we give them the benefit of the doubt and with the offense that they have increase their goal scoring to 3.27 (what Van put up last season), that would give them an extra 36 goals on the season, or 108 points increase from last season.
If we assume that Richards gets back to 80 points, same with Carter... that knocks off 40 points...
Syvret, Bartulis, Parent, Krajicek, Tollefsen shared 20 points between them, so factor in Meszaros (for about 35 points???) that knocks off another 15...
Coburn should put up more than 19, let's say 25, so that's another 5 gone...
Briere averaged 1.30 points per game during the playoffs and just 0.71 during the regular season, let's say he bumps that back up to his 0.93 point per game average in the last 4 years, which would give him an end of year total of 76 points, so there's another increase of 20 points...
Now chuck in Leino who had a post-season 1.11 point-per-game average, let's say he gets half of that during the regular season... that's an end of year output of 45 points, compared to the 4 last season... let's say some of those points come from Asham, Carcillo and Laperriere, but you're still looking at around 10-20 points to be made up...
Gagne only had 40 points last season, so if you factor in Zherdev as a 1-to-1 replacement for Gagne. That's around a wash.. If you think Zherdev actually will do better than Gagne, there's another factor to eat up the points...
Now if you think about Giroux and you think he has 60+ point potential, that's another increase of 13 points that needs to come from somewhere...
And this is all assuming that Hartnell, JVR, and the rest of the D remain status quo... if everyone picks up a couple of points here and there there's not much room for points.
Well many of you could argue that 3.27 goals per game is a bit low isn't it?
In the last 4 seasons, only Buf (3.63 , 2006), Ott (3.49, 2006), Det (3.52, 2008), Bos (3.29), Wsh (3.27, 2008), Wsh (3.82, 2009) and Van (3.27, 2009), have hit that mark, so setting a bar of 3.27 is already pretty high IMO...
If you head into the season thinking 50 then you've covered your bases... if he gets 60 it's gravy. If you head in thinking 60 and he gets 45 you're out 15 points...
Last edited by Maaaasquito; September 5, 2010 at 2:04 AM.
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
I wouldn't use last years numbers as proof of anything. I'm a Philly fan and, along with any other Philly fan, I can tell you that a lot of shit went on last season that made it an anomaly in terms of numbers. Just the sheer fact that nearly every Flyers player had a down year last year in terms of numbers should tell you that.Originally Posted by Gotlaid
As for Giroux, he's suffering from two things right now that are hampering his point totals. First of all, he's on an extremely deep team, deeper then any other team in the league. He has to compete with seven other top six forwards for ice-time. That's kind of ridiculous.
He's also been constantly flip-flopped between Center and Wing throughout his short NHL career. Kind of hard to get anything going when your position and line is constantly being changed.
With all that said, assuming a full 82 games, I would expect somewhere around 20 goals, 60 points from him. Give or take five points.
That's what I'm alluding to, despite the "down" year that they had, they still had the 8th best offense in the league... so if I give them the benefit of the doubt and say they can get up to 3.27 and get to 2nd in the league, there's only so many points to go around... If you read my long post before if everyone gets back to "normal" the team will generally get better but not that much better... If you're thinking 60 for Giroux, then someone else has to miss out on the points...
You can't have everyone in putting up 60 points...
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
Well said, gotlaid.
We're going to have a high-scoring team. So having high point totals isn't that far off. My predictions for my team:
Richards: Around 80 points. Capable of 30 goals.
Carter: Around 80 points. Capable of 40 goals.
Hartnell: Around 55 to 65 points. Capable of 30 goals (just barely though).
Leino: Around 25 to 40 points, capable of 15 to 20 goals.
Zherdev: 55 to 65 points. Capable of 25 to 30 goals.
Giroux: Around 60 points. Capable of 20 goals.
JVR: Around 45 to 55 points. Capable of 20 goals I guess.
Briere: Around 60 to 70 points, capable of 30 goals.
That's assuming complete health and best-case scenario though. Which is unrealistic. However, that's what I believe our players are capable of.
If we had a legitimate starter then I believe we're the best team in the league, including offensively so to have high predictions isn't unrealistic for this year.
See that's where the problem is...
With your point projections... 80, 80, 55, 25, 55, 60, 45, and 60...
You already have 6 players pegged for 55+ points, and another two at 45 and 25... there were only 2 teams last season that were remotely close to that and it was the Caps (109, 101, 84, 59, 53, 51) and the Nucks (112, 85, 75, 67, 53, 53) and both of them had basically no production from their bottom six (Caps - 42, 39, 24) (Nucks - 25, 22, 16) to steal points off the top-six and not very many high producing D.
Philly has Leino and JVR in the mix for third line duties, which means they're gonna steal points off the top-six... and on top of that their 5 D are all capable of 30 points, so they'll take some away from the offense as well...
There just isn't going to be enough points to go around. Don't get me wrong I think they are a very strong team, but this isn't NHL 11 where a team averages 5 goals a game... In reality it's 3.27 for the "best" teams... and something ridiculous like 3.82 for a Caps team that thinks offense, offense, offense all the time... Philly doesn't have Boudreau as a coach, at best I'll give them is something similar along the lines of Vancouver of last season...
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
I don't know if you just skipped the last part of my post if you just didn't understand it.
I said that's what they're all capable of if everything goes right and everyone is completely healthy. Neither of those things will happen obviously.
What I listed was just their point ceilings, what they're capable of.
Still, assuming nothing goes crazy like it did last year, they should be able to be the second best team in the league offensively.
But see that's what I don't understand... wouldn't you want to head into a season with more "real" projections than "capable" projections... I mean everyone can say well Crosby is "capable" of 135 points, but I wouldn't head into the season thinking he's gonna get that.
Giroux is definitely capable of getting 60 points, but realistically isn't 50 a better projection given what I've just said in the last 5 posts?
And its kinda like what you said, he can hit 60+ if "everything goes right" in which you said won't happen in reality anyways, so wouldn't you want to head into the season assuming something goes wrong and cover your bases with a projection of 50, rather than saying he'll hit 60 assuming everything goes right...
Last edited by Maaaasquito; September 5, 2010 at 3:57 AM.
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
Identifying "real" projections is completely pointless at this point of the season. Training camp hasn't even started yet.
For every team and almost every player there's too many variables in play to make an accurate prediction. Which is why I don't resort to "real" predictions, because I think they're stupid because they're likely to be wrong.
I find it much smarter to just identify a players capabilities and then identify the best and worst-case scenario for said player and see where exactly he falls in between next year.
As for Giroux, 50 isn't a better projection then 60. We don't know for sure what line he'll start out on, whether or not he'll continue to bounce around the lineup like has the last two years, and how his teammates will perform next year. All of those things heavily factor into his point projections for next year and, for that reason, 60 points is just as good of a prediction as 50.
Right now, it looks like the line he'll be on going into training camp is Carcillo-Richards-Giroux. I doubt that line stays together, but if it does, I could see Giroux getting 60 easily if he was given enough PP time (which he should since he's very good at it).
Great discussion by the way...
The thing is heading into the season with "real" numbers in mind are much better than upside or best case scenarios... For me if you're down to Earth with expectations for your team, then it gives you a better idea of how to handle your team. Generally speaking everyone that deals with projections for their team overshoots their team, and by the end of the season are majorly disappointed because they expected so much more for their team...
I know last year there was plenty of hype for Bobby Ryan, some people were expecting 90 points, some point-per-game and drafted him in that range... what happened he tanked a bit and finished with 64, then they cry foul at the end of the season saying so and so cost them the season...
I think you hit it right on the head with your best and worst case scenario statement. You gotta find something in between and not just think best all the time...
I feel that 50 is a better projection because of all the unknowns like you stated. Last season only 55 players topped 60 points (all of which were pretty clear cut top-liners) I dunno if Giroux can be classified as that right now, ... too many extra little things need to happen in order for Giroux to hit 60 and I'm not willing to go that far just yet...
Last edited by Maaaasquito; September 5, 2010 at 4:18 AM.
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
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