Help Pengwin pick his Keepers

[Pengwin7]

Re keeping 4 goalies, i was looking at the same night tool:

Assuming Brodeur and Backstrom are definite keeps, you can potentially get 53 starts from Theo or potentially 52 starts from Dubnyk as your third tender. Say you keep Dubnyk as your third tender you can potentially get 33 starts from Theodore (assuming you only start him when the other G's arent playing). Now say 5-7 of those 33 starts are taken by the backup (Clemmenson/Markstrom) that means you are keeping a goalie that will start less than 30 games for you throughout the year. In my opinion I dont think thats the best use of a keeper spot especially when 2 of your 4 cats are not volume based.

Actually... the limit on what I can get from G3 & G4 is a little bit flawed.
IF Brodeur starts all 82 games for New Jersey... and
IF Backstrom starts all 82 games for Minnesota...
...then...
I'd only be able to get 53 starts (max) from Theo -or- 52 starts (max) from Dubnyk.

However... we have to consider that if either Brodeur or Backstrom are not playing... then it is not really a conflict.

With the same night tool, the key is to look at the number of conflicts... which might be 29 (82-53).
If Brodeur plays 75% of his games and Backstrom plays 75% of his games... then the odds that they are BOTH playing on the same night (as FLA, say) is really only .75x.75x29 = 16 games.

Which means that IF Theodore played all 82 games... I'd be able to get him in for 66 games. (much better than 53 games)

In other words, conflicts are more of an issue when you are looking at 2+ players that are playing all or most of their team's games.
For 4 goalies playing only 60%-75% of their team's games... I may only have 15-30 forced sits for my extra two.

[wendelclark17]

Actually... the limit on what I can get from G3 & G4 is a little bit flawed.
IF Brodeur starts all 82 games for New Jersey... and
IF Backstrom starts all 82 games for Minnesota...
...then...
I'd only be able to get 53 starts (max) from Theo -or- 52 starts (max) from Dubnyk.

However... we have to consider that if either Brodeur or Backstrom are not playing... then it is not really a conflict.

With the same night tool, the key is to look at the number of conflicts... which might be 29 (82-53).
If Brodeur plays 75% of his games and Backstrom plays 75% of his games... then the odds that they are BOTH playing on the same night (as FLA, say) is really only .75x.75x29 = 16 games.

Which means that IF Theodore played all 82 games... I'd be able to get him in for 66 games. (much better than 53 games)

In other words, conflicts are more of an issue when you are looking at 2+ players that are playing all or most of their team's games.
For 4 goalies playing only 60%-75% of their team's games... I may only have 15-30 forced sits for my extra two.

I don't know why I hadn't thought about factoring that in before, thanks for setting me straight man.

[DickMarks]

I'll list the guys I would drop
Theodore - crappy anyway without the possibility of Lou coming to town
Dubnyk - crappy team D
Ott - Hard to choose between him and Clarkson, but Centers will be more abundant at the draft
Plekanec - see above
Burns - not really sold on his offensive play or ability to stay healthy
Seabs - somebody has to go right?

hope that helps.